Commissar SFLUFAN Posted June 6, 2022 Share Posted June 6, 2022 ‘The occupier should never feel safe’: rise in partisan attacks in Ukraine | Ukraine | The Guardian WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM Underground efforts appearing to spread, say analysts, after reports of explosions and attacks on Russian border guards Quote Ukrainian partisans in occupied areas of the country are increasing attacks and sabotage efforts on Russian forces and their local collaborators, with organised underground efforts appearing to spread. Six Russian border guarders were reportedly killed last week when their position came under fire near the Zernovo border checkpoint in Ukraine’s north. Two days later an explosion struck close to the office of Yevgeny Balitsky, a pro-Kremlin Ukrainian official in Melitopol. The increase in partisan warfare, particularly in the country’s south around Kherson, follows warnings at the outset of Russia’s war against Ukraine that any area under occupation was likely to see the emergence of guerrilla warfare. The subject is one of the murkiest of the war in Ukraine. Both sides have an interest in exaggerating its prevalence: the Russians to justify crackdowns in areas they occupy and the Ukrainians to demoralise Russian troops. Also complicating the issue is assessing the extent to which attacks are being carried out by Ukrainian military sabotage groups or homegrown resistance groups. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted June 6, 2022 Share Posted June 6, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Air_Delivery Posted June 7, 2022 Share Posted June 7, 2022 7 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said: That meat spray Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted June 7, 2022 Author Share Posted June 7, 2022 I know that Ukraine is advancing in Zhaporizhzhia...but they can't possibly be near Melitopol. Unless Russian forces are collapsing in the south in the same manner as they did north of Kyiv. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silentbob Posted June 7, 2022 Share Posted June 7, 2022 10 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said: I know that Ukraine is advancing in Zhaporizhzhia...but they can't possibly be near Melitopol. Unless Russian forces are collapsing in the south in the same manner as they did north of Kyiv. Maybe the Russian soldier conscripts are fighting/not fighting back to go against their commanders like the intercepted phones calls posted yesterday indicated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted June 7, 2022 Share Posted June 7, 2022 ISW analysis for 06 June 2022: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 6 | Institute for the Study of War WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG The nature of urban combat in Severodonetsk is likely obfuscating reports of control of terrain within the city, though Russian forces likely retain control over much of the city. Head of the Luhansk Regional State Administration Serhiy Haidai claimed on Quote Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report. The nature of urban combat in Severodonetsk is likely obfuscating reports of control of terrain within the city, though Russian forces likely retain control over much of the city. Head of the Luhansk Regional State Administration Serhiy Haidai claimed on June 5 that Ukrainian forces managed to retake large parts of Severodonetsk and push Russian forces to the outskirts of the city during successful urban counterattacks.[1] Ukrainian journalist Yuri Butusov, however, denied Haidai’s claims on June 5 and claimed that Ukrainian forces only control the Azot industrial sector of Severodonetsk. Haidai amended his claims on June 6 and reported that the situation in Severodonetsk has deteriorated significantly, adding that Ukrainian forces were indeed fighting within the Azot industrial site on June 6.[2] The reason for Haidai and Butusov’s conflicting reports is unclear, and heavy urban fighting is ongoing in the city. Ukrainian naval forces are challenging Russian dominance over the northwestern part of the Black Sea and claimed to be preventing Russian warships from operating close to the shoreline. The Ukrainian Navy reported on June 6 that they had succeeded in pushing a grouping of the Russian Black Sea Fleet more than 100 km away from the Ukrainian coast but did not specify a timeframe for this statement.[3] The report additionally stated that Russian naval forces have subsequently had to change their tactics in the Black Sea and are relying more heavily on Bal and Bastion coastal defense systems in occupied Kherson and Crimea rather than seaborne air defenses. The UK Ministry of Defense claimed that Russian forces have been strengthening their air defense assets on Snake Island, and the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense reported that Russian forces deployed additional S-300 air defense battalions to Crimea.[4] Taken together, these reports suggest that Ukrainian naval pressure and anti-ship missiles—likely including those provided by the UK and other states—have forced the Russian grouping in the northwestern Black Sea to rely more on coastal and air defense as they are pushed away from the Ukrainian shoreline. Ukraine will likely attempt to leverage these successes to alleviate the economic pressure of the Russian blockade on Ukraine’s ports and seek additional economic support from the west, including possibly opening up new routes for international aid to Ukraine. Key Takeaways Russian forces likely retain control over most of Severodonetsk as of June 6, though the exact situation in the city remains unclear. Control of terrain is likely changing hands frequently. Russian forces in the Izyum area did not make any confirmed advances, while forces advancing west from Lyman secured minor gains. Russian forces continued unsuccessful attempts to sever Ukrainian lines of communication northeast of Bakhmut. Limited and localized Ukrainian counterattacks on June 5 forced Russian troops to focus on holding defensive lines north of Kharkiv City on June 6. Russian occupation authorities are advancing efforts to issue Russian passports to Ukrainian citizens and cement their control over occupied territories. The Ukrainian Navy claimed to have pushed the Russian Black Sea Fleet more than 100 km from the Ukrainian coast, likely to reduce the pressure of the Russian blockade on Ukraine’s southern ports. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted June 7, 2022 Author Share Posted June 7, 2022 Big badaboom at 1:10: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 ISW analysis for 07 June 2022: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 7 | Institute for the Study of War WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG Russian forces continued offensive operations in several locations in eastern Ukraine but did not secure any confirmed gains in ground assaults on June 7. Russian forces have likely captured most of Severodonetsk, but ISW cannot confirm the exact control Quote Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report. Russian forces continued offensive operations in several locations in eastern Ukraine but did not secure any confirmed gains in ground assaults on June 7. Russian forces have likely captured most of Severodonetsk, but ISW cannot confirm the exact control of terrain within the city.[1] Russian forces additionally redeployed troops east of Bakhmut to renew offensives to secure access to highways northeast of Bakhmut and threaten Ukrainian lines of communication.[2] Russian troops north of Slovyansk will likely seek to advance toward Slovyansk and Kramatorsk from positions north of the city.[3] Russian forces on the Southern Axis are reportedly redeploying away from Zaporizhia Oblast toward Kherson Oblast, likely in order to support Russian defensive positions that have been threatened by Ukrainian counterattacks along the Mykolaiv-Kherson Oblast border south of Davydiv Brid.[4] Members of the Russian military community are accusing Ukrainian forces of escalating artillery attacks on Russian rear areas in a likely attempt to dissuade further Western support to the Ukrainian military. Former FSB agent Igor Girkin (also known as Strelkov) accused Ukrainian troops of perpetrating “terrorist attacks” against residential areas of Donetsk City, Horlivka, and Makiivka.[5] A Russian source additionally accused Ukrainian forces of firing on Shyroka Balka, Kherson Oblast.[6] Ukrainian social media users denied the claims and stated that they are likely false-flag attempts to spoil Western opinion of the Ukrainian military and halt military aid to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.[7] The Kremlin’s efforts to censor information about deceased military personnel and ongoing forced mobilization within the DNR and LNR are reportedly exacerbating domestic tensions and opposition to the war in Russia. The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that the Kremlin assigned lawyers and psychologists to convince families of personnel of the sunken cruiser Moskva to refrain from disclosing any information regarding the deaths of their relatives in an effort to crush rising social tensions in Russia.[8] The GUR stated that the Kremlin is threatening to nullify financial compensation to the families of Moskva crew members if they publicly discuss the sinking of the cruiser, resulting in some relatives refusing to meet with Black Sesa Fleet commanders in Sevastopol in protest. Ukrainian media sources separately reported that the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) altered mobilization protocols and is now promising compensation for wounded and deceased personnel due to DNR servicemen rioting at the frontlines.[9] Domestic Russian complaints about the maltreatment and lack of preparation among Russian combat forces are likely prompting the Kremlin to take rhetorical steps to curb discontent. Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu stated that new conscripts during the summer training period will be trained with specific attention to lessons learned so far in Ukraine during a meeting with the National Defense Management Center (NDCC) (the supreme command center of the Russian Armed Forces and Defense Ministry) on June 7. Shoigu added that summer conscripts will learn battlefield first aid, likely responding to criticisms by members of the Russian military community of poor tactics and lack of first aid acumen among Russian soldiers.[10] However, the Russian military is unlikely to properly train and equip Russian conscripts rushed to the front as replacements and likely primarily seeks to mollify public discontent. Former DNR Security Minister and milblogger Alexander Khodakovsky claimed that he asked the DNR military command to move exhausted and demoralized proxy conscripts to auxiliary tasks away from the line of contact but to no avail.[11] Key Takeaways Russian forces have likely established control over the majority of the residential sector of Severodonetsk and conducted assaults against Ukrainian positions in the industrial zone in the past 24 hours. The operational environment within the city remains fluid. Russian forces continued efforts to advance on Slovyansk southeast from the Izyum area and west from Lyman, attempting to break through Ukrainian defenses that have halted most direct frontal assaults from Izyum. Russian forces are likely attempting to reinforce their operations in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area from both the Toshkivka-Ustynivka area in the south and Kupyansk from the northwest. Russian forces began withdrawing troops from positions in Zaporizhia Oblast, likely either to rotate damaged units into rear areas or to reinforce Russian defenses in northwestern Kherson Oblast, though ISW cannot currently confirm the destination of these forces. Russian forces failed to regain advanced positions on the western (now Ukrainian-occupied) bank of the Ihulets River on June 7. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that Russian forces restored transit connections between newly occupied cities and Crimea. Russian occupation authorities continue to face challenges suppressing Ukrainian resistance and finding partisan supporters despite increasingly draconian occupation measures and attempts to bribe Ukrainian civilians. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 Some recent posts from War on the Rocks that should be of some interest: What the Experts Got Wrong (and Right) About Russian Military Power - War on the Rocks WARONTHEROCKS.COM It is now widely understood that many observers, in advance of this war, over-estimated Russian military performance and underestimated Ukrainian military Not Built for Purpose: The Russian Military’s Ill-Fated Force Design - War on the Rocks WARONTHEROCKS.COM Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a deeply flawed military operation, from Moscow’s assumptions about an easy victory, to a lack of preparation, poor 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 Ukrainian forces appear to be on the verge of withdrawing from Sievierodonetsk in order to redeploy to more defensible positions. Ukraine forces may have to pull back in Sievierodonetsk, say leaders in Donbas | Ukraine | The Guardian WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM Luhansk governor says Russians trying to capture city by Friday, but ‘no one’ is going to give it up Quote Ukraine’s military may have to “pull back” to stronger positions in the eastern city of Sievierodonetsk amid heavy fighting in the city and frontline villages to the south as Russia pursues a breakthrough in Donbas, regional leaders have said. Serhiy Haidai, the governor of Luhansk, said the Russians were trying to capture the city by Friday, while the road from neighbouring Lysychansk to Bakhmut 30 miles south-west was being shelled too frequently to be used. “Fighting is still going and no one is going to give up the city even if our military has to step back to stronger positions. This will not mean someone is giving up the city – no one will give up anything. But it’s possible [they] will be forced to pull back,” he said in a TV interview. But on his Telegram channel, the governor insisted a retreat was not being planned. “Do not breed betrayal. Do not spoil the mood of the armed forces! Nobody is going to surrender Severodonetsk!” he said, adding that Ukraine’s defenders would fight for “every inch”. Ukrainian advisers say Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk are not strategic cities, and their goal is to degrade the Russian military by fighting hard to for them. But they are the only remaining parts of the Luhansk oblast not under Russian control. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted June 9, 2022 Share Posted June 9, 2022 ISW analysis for 08 June 2022: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 8 | Institute for the Study of War WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG Russian forces are escalating the use of psychological and information operations to damage the morale of Ukrainian soldiers. The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on June 8 that Russian forces are sending threatening messages to the Quote Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report. Russian forces are escalating the use of psychological and information operations to damage the morale of Ukrainian soldiers. The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on June 8 that Russian forces are sending threatening messages to the personal devices of Ukrainian servicemen calling on them to betray their service oaths, lay down their arms, surrender, or defect to Russia.[1] The GUR reported that Russian forces are sending messages on a variety of platforms including SMS, Telegram, Viber, Signal, and WhatsApp and that the messages use location information to threaten to harm Ukrainian soldiers or their family members. Ukrainian military expert Dmytro Snegirov additionally noted that Russian propagandists are conducting informational and psychological campaigns to spoil the morale of Ukrainian troops by disseminating information that the battle for Severodonetsk will become the “next Mariupol.”[2] These information and psychological attacks likely seek to lower the morale of Ukrainian servicemen as operations on multiple axes of advance continue to generate high causalities on both the Ukrainian and Russian sides. Russian military commanders continue to face force generation challenges. The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported that Russian military enlistment offices in Crimea are falsifying the results of mandatory medical exams administered during the summer conscription period to maximize the number of recruits.[3] Russian police also arrested a man who threw a molotov cocktail and set fire to a local Crimean administration building in protest of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, likely indicating growing discontent with Russian war efforts in Crimea.[4] ISW has previously reported that forced mobilization in the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR) is exacerbating social tensions and sparking protests in Donbas.[5] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that unspecified elements of the 106th and 76th Guards Airborne Assault Divisions refused to participate in combat in Luhansk Oblast and returned to Russia. The 76th Guards Airborne Assault Division previously participated in assaults on Kyiv, Izyum, and Popasna, which has likely led to the demoralization of troops.[6] Key Takeaways Russian forces continued assaults against Ukrainian positions in Severodonetsk. Russian forces simultaneously seek to outflank Ukrainian positions in the region to avoid the necessity of making an opposed crossing of the Siversky Donets river. Russian forces are continuing operations around Sviatohirsk and west of Lyman to link up with operations southeast of Izyum and drive on Slovyansk. Russian forces are intensifying their operations in northwestern Kherson Oblast in response to recent Ukrainian counterattacks. Russian forces in Zaporizhia Oblast are focusing ground and artillery attacks near the Zaporizhia-Donetsk Oblast border and likely are seeking to strengthen control of the highway between Vasylivka-Orikhiv and Huliapole to support operations in northeast Zaporizhia. Russian-backed occupation authorities are attempting to set conditions for the political integration of occupied areas into the Russian Federation but are likely acting independently and in an incoherent manner due to the lack of a unifying occupation authority. Russian forces intensified psychological and information operations to degrade Ukrainian morale. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted June 9, 2022 Share Posted June 9, 2022 ‘All hell broke loose’: weary soldiers tell of frontline holdout in Ukraine city | Ukraine | The Guardian WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM Troops in Bakhmut describe perilous fight as city standing in way of Russian advance is pounded by missiles Quote Smoking cigarettes on benches in the shade outside a military hospital. The constant thud of artillery could be heard in the distance. The city of Bakhmut felt deserted. There was little sense of life from before the war – no children, cars, and barely any people. Windows were boarded up with only a handful of civilians on the streets. Almost the only activity had been brought here by the war. The soldiers, weary and jaded, described a perilous fight to hold Ukraine’s east. First a relentless bombardment by Russian heavy equipment, quickly followed by advancing tanks and infantry soldiers – whose job it is to “clean up” any Ukrainian troops left standing. For 13 weeks Russian forces have been trying to capture the Luhansk and Donetsk provinces. They have seized the city of Popasna, 18 miles (30km) east of Bakhmut, and have overrun most of Sievierodonetsk, 35 miles to the north-west. Bakhmut – known in Soviet times as Artemivsk – stands in the way of any further Russian advance. Despite the scale of their enemy, the soldiers said they were still convinced that willpower and good would win out over evil. Mission accomplished? The meaning of Russia’s claimed land bridge to Crimea | Russia | The Guardian WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM Analysis: As its defence minister trumpets a key goal, Russia is pushing hard to subjugate areas of southern Ukraine it controls Quote The Kremlin is pushing ahead with attempts to consolidate its political, social and military grip on Ukraine’s south after claiming earlier this week it had established its “land bridge” to Crimea, one of Moscow’s key war aims. The announcement by the Russian defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, was accompanied by the announcement that rail traffic to the border with Russia had been restored and at least one service had included trucks carrying grain taken from the elevators in the Russian-occupied city of Melitopol to Crimea, which was cut off from the Ukrainian rail network after its illegal annexation by Russia in 2014. Shoigu – who has been out of public view for parts of the Russian war on Ukraine – promised “comprehensive traffic” to and from Russia to occupied territory in Kherson and on to Crimea after announcing the repair of hundreds of kilometres of line. The claimed restoration of some railway services, which have been targeted by Ukrainian saboteurs, comes amid a growing campaign aimed at cementing Russian social and bureaucratic control in Ukraine’s south in all aspects, from use of the Russian language to the local government system and passports. Shoigu also said water was once again flowing to Crimea through the North Crimean Canal – which was cut off by Ukraine in 2014, although reports had suggested earlier in the conflict the canal was once again supplying water to Crimea. While I doubt this sentence will be carried out, the obvious intent is to give second thoughts to anyone considering joining the International Brigade: Britons sentenced to death after ‘show trial’ in Russian-occupied Ukraine | Ukraine | The Guardian WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM Aiden Aslin and Shaun Pinner were captured while fighting in Ukrainian army Quote Pro-Russian officials have sentenced to death two British men and a Moroccan national captured while fighting in the Ukrainian army in Mariupol, Russian state media has said. A court in Russian-controlled east Ukraine convicted Aiden Aslin and Shaun Pinner after a days-long process that observers have called a “show trial” on “trumped-up charges” meant to imitate war crimes trials against Russian soldiers in Kyiv. Aslin, 28, from Newark, and Pinner, 48, from Watford, were convicted by the court in Russian-controlled territory in Donetsk alongside Saaudun Brahim on charges of “terrorism”. Both Britons have said they were serving in the Ukrainian marines, making them active-duty soldiers who should be protected by the Geneva conventions on prisoners of war. However, the Russian state media has portrayed the men as mercenaries, and the court has convicted them on the charge of “being a mercenary”. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted June 9, 2022 Share Posted June 9, 2022 The Fight to Survive Russia’s Onslaught in Eastern Ukraine | The New Yorker WWW.NEWYORKER.COM The war has become, as one Ukrainian soldier put it, a game of “artillery Ping-Pong.” Quote Russia’s war in Ukraine is not the same conflict that it was earlier this spring. The Russian Army’s initial campaign, in February and March, was a three-front invasion with little coherence or military logic. Ukrainian troops mounted small-unit ambushes and used rocket-propelled grenades, antitank weapons, and drones to destroy Russian troop formations and armor. Viral videos show their direct strikes, with tanks disappearing in flame and smoke. Now the Russian military has regrouped its forces for a more targeted assault in the Donbas, in eastern Ukraine, drawing on its advantages in artillery and airpower. As Michael Kofman, an expert on the Russian military at CNA, a defense research organization, said, “Russia is making fitful but incremental gains, and Ukraine’s position in the Donbas is more precarious than it once seemed.” I spent several days in the Donbas recently, where a number of officers and enlisted soldiers told me that Ukrainian infantry rarely see the enemy. Rather, battles are often fought at distances of ten miles or more. The war has become, as one soldier told me, a game of “artillery Ping-Pong.” In Bakhmut, a midsize town a few miles from the front, I met members of a Kyiv-based unit of the Territorial Defense, a voluntary military corps, who had been sent east in recent weeks; they looked ragged but cheerful. Since Russian forces had captured the nearby town of Popasna, in May, Bakhmut fell well within Russian artillery range; it was also on Ukraine’s main supply route to Sievierodonetsk, the city that is now Russia’s main target and the site of running street battles. One of the soldiers switched to English to describe the fighting: “Let me put it like this: very fucking awful.” He went on, “We want to shoot the enemy, but we don’t see him. An infantryman has nothing to do in an artillery war other than dig—and run.” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted June 9, 2022 Share Posted June 9, 2022 Is Russia inching towards victory in Ukraine’s Donbas region? WWW.ALJAZEERA.COM Al Jazeera’s Alex Gatopoulos examines whether new tactics and objectives are giving Russia an advantage in the war. Quote In the battle for the Donbas, the fight over Severodonetsk has entered a crucial stage. Ukrainian units are locked in a desperate struggle with Russian infantry and armour intent on taking the city, which is at the eastern end of a Ukrainian defensive pocket now in serious danger of being cut in two. While maintaining a grip on the city, Russian forces to the south of this salient are also slowly advancing north in an attempt to cut the roads leading to the town of Bakhmut. To the north, Russian infantry and armour have been pushing south towards the strategically important towns of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, with their vital rail junctions, crucial for the movement of supplies and vehicles given the vast distances that the war in eastern Ukraine involves. These two Russian thrusts are designed to pinch this ever-narrowing pocket, squeezing it until Severodonetsk and Lysychansk are cut off from the rest of Ukraine, effectively surrounding and besieging the Ukrainian units caught in the Russian pincer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted June 9, 2022 Author Share Posted June 9, 2022 14 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said: Is Russia inching towards victory in Ukraine’s Donbas region? WWW.ALJAZEERA.COM Al Jazeera’s Alex Gatopoulos examines whether new tactics and objectives are giving Russia an advantage in the war. Victory in the same sense that if the Germans declared mid-WWII that their goal was never to conquer the USSR at all, just take Kyiv and St. Petersburg. I think that Russia will end up with 100% of Luhansk by the middle of summer...but not Donetsk. The question is then: can Ukraine take it back? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brucoe Posted June 9, 2022 Share Posted June 9, 2022 On 6/8/2022 at 8:16 AM, Commissar SFLUFAN said: Ukrainian forces appear to be on the verge of withdrawing from Sievierodonetsk in order to redeploy to more defensible positions. Ukraine forces may have to pull back in Sievierodonetsk, say leaders in Donbas | Ukraine | The Guardian WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM Luhansk governor says Russians trying to capture city by Friday, but ‘no one’ is going to give it up Just saying, but Moscow might be great place to pull back to as it's very defensible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted June 10, 2022 Share Posted June 10, 2022 ISW analysis for 09 June 2022: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 9 | Institute for the Study of War WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG Russian forces are continuing to deploy outdated military equipment to Ukraine to replace losses. The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on June 9 that Russian forces are mining Kherson Oblast with mines from the 1950s to defend Quote Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report. Russian forces are continuing to deploy outdated military equipment to Ukraine to replace losses. The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on June 9 that Russian forces are mining Kherson Oblast with mines from the 1950s to defend against recent Ukrainian counterattacks in northwestern Kherson Oblast.[1] The GUR stated that Russian forces moved these mines from Russia’s Rostov Oblast to the Kherson area despite the fact the mines were meant to be destroyed. The GUR claimed that some of the mines detonated during the transportation processes and killed Russian sappers from the 49th Combined Arms Army. The GUR’s report is consistent with previous statements that Russian forces are moving old and obsolete equipment to Ukraine to make up for equipment losses, including deploying T-62 tanks to the Melitopol area and pulling MLRS and 152mm howitzers from storage in Irkutsk, Siberia.[2] Russian military command continues to face pervasive issues with force generation. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that Russian officials in Luhansk Oblast have had to reduce their mobilization efforts due to widespread protests against aggressive mobilization efforts that have taken a toll on the labor market in Luhansk.[3] Attacks on Russian military recruitment offices are additionally continuing.[4] An unidentified assailant threw a Molotov cocktail at the military commissariat in Vladivostok, which is the eighteenth such reported attack on Russian territory since the beginning of the war. As Russian officials escalate mobilization efforts over the background of continued losses in Ukraine, they will continue to run the risk of instigating public dissent and pushback against such recruitment practices. Key Takeaways Russian officials are increasingly taking over governmental positions in occupied Ukrainian territory, advancing the Kremlin's likely efforts to annex occupied areas of Ukraine into Russia as an okrug (federal district). Russian forces continued to fight for the Azot industrial zone in Severodonetsk under the cover of heavy artillery fire. Russian forces made marginal gains north of Slovyansk but are likely to face difficulties assaulting the city itself because of the tactical challenges posed by crossing the Siverskyi Donets River. Russian forces made incremental advances to the east of Bakhmut and will continue efforts to cut Ukrainian lines of communication to the northeast of Bakhmut. Russian forces are likely engaged in limited fighting along occupied frontiers in northern Kharkiv Oblast. Russian forces continue to focus on strengthening defensive lines along the Southern Axis and are intensifying ground attacks in northeastern Zaporizhia Oblast with the support of troop and equipment rotations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted June 10, 2022 Author Share Posted June 10, 2022 They estimate 300 Wagner soldiers were inside, and 299 died. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted June 10, 2022 Author Share Posted June 10, 2022 Also the two British citizens sentenced to death by Russia/LNR is almost certainly going to rile up the British population. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted June 10, 2022 Share Posted June 10, 2022 38 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said: Also the two British citizens sentenced to death by Russia/LNR is almost certainly going to rile up the British population. I'm going to say "not bloody likely" on that one. The response from the vast majority of the UK will be to shrug their shoulders and say "They bloody well knew what they signed up for" and that will be that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperSpreader Posted June 10, 2022 Share Posted June 10, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 ISW analysis for 10 May 2022: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 10 | Institute for the Study of War WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG Ukrainian officials are increasing the urgency of their requests for more-sophisticated Western-provided weapons systems amid reports of growing Russian artillery superiority. Several Western media outlets reported in the last 48 hours that Ukrainian Quote Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report. Ukrainian officials are increasing the urgency of their requests for more-sophisticated Western-provided weapons systems amid reports of growing Russian artillery superiority. Several Western media outlets reported in the last 48 hours that Ukrainian military and government officials are increasingly highlighting the fact that Ukrainian troops are trapped in an “artillery war” on critical frontlines and are at a distinct disadvantage in terms of artillery systems.[1] Deputy Head of the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Vadym Skibitsky stated that Russian troops possess 10 to 15 artillery pieces to every one Ukrainian artillery piece and that Ukrainian forces have almost completely exhausted their artillery ammunition.[2] Considering the current prevalence of protracted positional battles, especially in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area, Ukrainian forces urgently need fresh supplies of artillery systems. As Ukrainian forces use the last of their stocks of Soviet-era weapon systems and munitions, they will require consistent Western support to transition to new supply chains of ammunition and key artillery systems. Effective artillery will be increasingly decisive in the largely static fighting in eastern Ukraine. Russian military authorities continue to struggle with force generation and are facing the consequences of aggressive forced mobilization efforts. Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) claimed they captured a new group of Russian prisoners of war who reportedly were recruited through a private military company and told they were going to be providing security services but were instead sent to the frontline in Luhansk.[3] The Ukrainian General Staff similarly reported that units comprised of forcibly mobilized personnel are refusing to participate in combat in the Donbas due to high losses.[4] The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) cited intercepted phone calls and claimed that Russian soldiers are refusing to fight and are being threatened with prosecution—despite their lack of equipment and weapons within their units.[5] Such reports are consistent with previous reports that Russian forced mobilization efforts are self-destructive and may result in mounting discontent and declining morale and discipline.[6] Key Takeaways Ukrainian officials are increasing the urgency of their requests for Western weapons systems due to Russia’s artillery superiority. Russian forces are continuing ground assaults within Severodonetsk but have yet to secure full control of the city as of June 10. Russian forces are preparing to renew offensive operations toward Slovyansk and made minor gains to the north of the city. Russian forces are continuing efforts to cut the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway and conducting assaults on settlements near the highway. Russian troops reportedly took control of the Kinburn Spit in the northern Black Sea, which will allow them to exert further control of the Black Sea coast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 Jomini of the West's "intelligence briefing" for Days 98-107: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 Russia's demographic situation ain't exactly improving! Russia’s Population Is Shrinking Even as Putin Seeks Expansion (Bloomberg) Quote Russia’s population is declining even as it emerges from the worst of the Covid-19 epidemic, underlining the government’s difficulties in reversing the slump as President Vladimir Putin wages war in Ukraine. Deaths exceeded births by 311,200 people in the first four months of this year, compared with 304,500 a year earlier, data published Friday by the Federal Statistics Service show, adding to a decline in migration to Russia. Russia’s difficulties are being intensified by falling migration amid unprecedented international sanctions on its economy. A separate report by the statistics service last week showed 51,000 more people left the country than arrived in the first quarter, the first time that’s happened in at least eight years. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CayceG Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 Is a non-zero part of this annexation actually capturing PEOPLE? I would have never thought that was a valid reason, but... maybe that's how Putin's calculus works? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted June 11, 2022 Author Share Posted June 11, 2022 Ukraine War, 8, 9, 10 June 2022. Good morning everybody! | by Tom Cooper | Jun, 2022 | Medium MEDIUM.COM Good morning everybody! tl;dr: Russia making small advances still in Donbos, while Ukraine is making progress in both Kharkiv and Kherson (with advances in Kherson along the entire front, over 20 villages retaken yesterday). Both sides are running low on artillery shells, Ukraine critically so. Ukraine may soon have to entirely rely on donated 155mm shells from NATO/other nations. Ukraine may also be advancing in Zaporizhzhya, but more because Russian forces have simply abandoned their posts for the first 5-10km of the front in some places. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted June 11, 2022 Author Share Posted June 11, 2022 Germany has revealed itself to be entirely corrupt in this war: They have slowed down multiple deals. A coincidence their most of their political leadership class has ties to Russian oil money? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CayceG Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 6 hours ago, PaladinSolo said: That's insane. It literally looks like Call of Duty/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 11 | Institute for the Study of War WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG Ukrainian intelligence assesses that the Russian military is extending its planning to fight a longer war, though Russian force generation and reserves likely remain poor. Deputy Head of the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Vadym Skibitsky Quote Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report. Ukrainian intelligence assesses that the Russian military is extending its planning to fight a longer war, though Russian force generation and reserves likely remain poor. Deputy Head of the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Vadym Skibitsky stated the GUR received confirmed information that Russian forces have extended their war planning for the next 120 days, extending to October 2022.[1] Skibitsky said that Russian forces will adjust the plan depending on their successes in Donbas and noted that the Russian General Staff is modifying their invasion plans almost every month.[2] Skibitsky’s statement likely indicates the Kremlin has, at a minimum, acknowledged it cannot achieve its objectives in Ukraine quickly and is further adjusting its military objectives in an attempt to correct the initial deficiencies in the invasion of Ukraine. Skibitsky also claimed that Russian forces have an additional 40 battalion tactical groups (BTGs) in reserve, after having already deployed 103 BTGs to Ukraine. This report is highly unlikely to mean Russian forces retain 40 full-strength and effective BTGs in Russia. At most, these “BTGs” are likely small collections of personnel cobbled together from other units. The Russian military is additionally unlikely to be holding such a significant portion of its force in reserve due to continuing manpower shortages in existing frontline units. Ukrainian officials continued to increase their requests for Western offensive and defensive equipment, particularly regarding capabilities necessary to combat Russian artillery superiority. Head of the Ukrainian Northern Operational Command Dmytro Krasilnikov reported that Ukrainian forces are experiencing a shortage in long-range artillery systems, while Russian artillery continues to overpower Ukrainian infantry. Ukrainian Advisor to Cabinet of Ministers Oleksandr Danylyuk stated that Russian forces adopted a new unspecified strategy that allows them to make more careful maneuvers.[3] Danylyuk added that Russian forces have more resources than Ukraine, which would prove advantageous in a protracted conflict. Severodonetsk Mayor Oleksandr Stryuk said that Ukrainian defenders need long-range artillery and air defense systems to strike against advancing Russian troops in Luhansk Oblast.[4] Ukrainian forces will need consistent Western support, particularly regarding artillery systems, as Russian numbers and resources take their toll on Ukrainian forces in increasingly positional warfare. Key Takeaways Russian forces continued to conduct ground offensives within the Severodonetsk area, but Ukrainian defenders retain control of the industrial area of the city as of June 11. Russian forces likely resumed efforts to cut the T1303 Hirske-Lysyschansk highway and launched failed assaults on settlements along the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychank highway. Russian forces continued assaults on settlements southwest and southeast of Izyum in an effort to resume drives on Slovyansk. Ukrainian forces likely resumed counteroffensives northwest of Kherson City on June 11, south of their previous operations. Russian occupation officials distributed the first batch of Russian passports in Kherson City and Melitopol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 This isn't much of surprise, but the real question is whether they will have fighting capability to seize more territory in Donetsk considering how costly the operations in the Donbas have been so far: Russia likely to seize all of Luhansk in coming weeks, U.S. official says - The Washington Post WWW.WASHINGTONPOST.COM Russia is likely to seize control of the entire Luhansk region of Ukraine within a few weeks, a senior U.S. defense official said, as Ukraine sustains heavy casualties and its supplies of ammunition dwindle. Quote Russia is likely to seize control of the entire Luhansk region of Ukraine within a few weeks, a senior U.S. defense official said, as Ukraine sustains heavy casualties and its supplies of ammunition dwindle. Such a move would leave Russia short of its war aims of capturing all of Luhansk and Donetsk, which together make up the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. But it would still amount to a win for Russian forces and create a new de facto front line that could last for some time. The Ukrainian cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, in Luhansk, are increasingly under duress and could fall to Russian forces within a week, the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. Fierce street fighting continued Saturday in Severodonetsk, a strategic city near the Donets river. Ukrainian forces control a third of the city, Mayor Alexander Stryuk told the BBC’s Ukrainian service. Russian troops had not been able to make advances in the city’s south as of Friday, according to the latest intelligence update from Britain’s Defense Ministry, released Saturday. But they are combining artillery firepower with airstrikes to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses, the ministry said. Ukraine has called for faster deliveries of Western arms to its outgunned military. Russia’s progress remains incremental overall and is coming at great cost to its own forces in terms of deaths and injuries, the U.S. defense official said. Ukrainian forces have been fighting a very effective “mobile area defense,” in which Russia presses forward with its assault as Ukrainian forces fall back, only for Ukrainian forces to then rebound and take back land. “The Ukrainians are doing a really good job here,” the U.S. official said. Ukrainian troops pushed on with a counteroffensive in the Kherson region Saturday, retaking full control of the village of Tavriis’ke, the Kherson city council said in a Facebook post. The claim could not be independently verified. Roughly 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed since the Russian invasion began, Oleksiy Arestovych, a military adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, said Saturday. At least 200 to 300 Ukrainian soldiers are being killed each day, he said, though he claimed Russia has suffered even greater losses since February. The Washington Post could not immediately verify the figures. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anathema- Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 At some point the Russian victories will be more like the dog who caught the car, considering their losses. What army is going to hold occupied territory? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 ‘They’re Wiping Us From Earth’: Evading Russian Artillery With a Ukrainian Military Unit WWW.ROLLINGSTONE.COM A trip to the front lines in Ukraine reveals Russia's ’scorched earth‘ strategy and the resistance fighters trying to hold on. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CayceG Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Svyatogorsk is beautiful and it breaks my heart to see this happening to the people there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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