General Gaming NPD predictions: PS4/XB1 will exceed PS2/Xbox sales time-aligned by 6 percent, Switch will be best-selling US console

[SaysWho?]

https://www.npd.com/wps/portal/npd/us/blog/2018/video-game-industry-predictions-for-holiday-2018/

 

First, a summary of the bustling video game market:

 

Quote

As we reported in our May data release, total industry spending tracked by The NPD Group reflects growth of 15 percent when compared to a year ago.  All categories of spending have shown gains, including Software (7 percent growth), Hardware (up 15 percent) and Accessories & Game Cards (jumping 29 percent).

 

Fortnite is hardly the only significant software sales driver in the year so far.  2018 launch titles such as Far Cry 5, God of War, Monster Hunter: World, Dragon Ball: Fighterz, and MLB 18: The Show, have all set or approached launch month franchise sales records, while titles that have released in previous years such as Grand Theft Auto V, Call of Duty: WWII, Mario Kart 8, and NBA 2K18, have all shown remarkable continued sales momentum throughout the year.

 

On the hardware side, the PlayStation 4 has exceeded my expectations coming into the year and has been 2018’s leading seller in both units and dollars.  The Xbox One has shown very strong growth so far this year and is on pace to have the highest time-aligned annual growth rate for console unit sales since the Xbox 360 in 2010.  Finally, Nintendo Switch has the second highest time-aligned installed base for a console in history, trailing only the Wii to this point.

 

Now the predictions:

 

 

1. Driven by the launches of Pokémon: Let’s Go, Pikachu!, Pokemon: Let’s Go, Eevee! and Super Smash Bros. Ultimate, Nintendo Switch will be the best-selling console of the fourth quarter and year in unit sales.
2. By year’s end, the time aligned installed base of the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One will exceed that of the PlayStation 2 and Xbox by 6 percent and will be ahead of the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 by at least 30 percent.
3. All three current generation consoles will each generate at least 4m units sold in 2018.  
4. Headset and gamepad sales will continue to show very strong growth rates through the rest of 2018, with high double-digit growth shown in the fourth quarter for both accessory types.
5. Physical video game title release count will exceed 400 unique titles, finishing the year up at least 15 percent when compared to 2017.
6. Physical video game software dollar sales will finish the year with growth of at least 8 percent when compared to a year ago, while digital full-game sales will continue to grow at double digit percentage rates.

[crispy4000]

Kind of ballsy to predict that Smash or Pokemon won't make Top 10.  There were 3 Switch games in the top 10 last year, even with Nintendo's digital sales excluded.

[JosephManderley]

Looks like the industry is in a boom period, everyone is doing well. 

[SaysWho?]

5 hours ago, crispy4000 said:

Kind of ballsy to predict that Smash or Pokemon won't make Top 10.  There were 3 Switch games in the top 10 last year, even with Nintendo's digital sales excluded.

 

I think with Pokemon, it's the two SKUs that prevent it from reaching Top 10. With Smash, I think it's the December release.

[AbsolutSurgen]

7 hours ago, crispy4000 said:

Kind of ballsy to predict that Smash or Pokemon won't make Top 10.  There were 3 Switch games in the top 10 last year, even with Nintendo's digital sales excluded.

I thought it was more ballsy to predict that Switch would outsell PS4 in 2018.

[GameDadGrant]

39 minutes ago, mikechorney said:

I thought it was more ballsy to predict that Switch would outsell PS4 in 2018.

He’s just saying it will outsell it in 2018 alone. Not all years combined. 

[AbsolutSurgen]

8 minutes ago, GameDadGrant said:

He’s just saying it will outsell it in 2018 alone. Not all years combined. 

Yes.  Given that Switch is behind PS4 YTD in 2018 already, and that he isn't predicting any Switch games to make the top 10.  I thought it was a strange prediction.

[BuckFly]

Ummm *chuckles to self*...I believe you are misinformed.  Ya see, consoles are dead.

 

[crispy4000]

39 minutes ago, mikechorney said:

Yes.  Given that Switch is behind PS4 YTD in 2018 already, and that he isn't predicting any Switch games to make the top 10.  I thought it was a strange prediction.

What's your source on this?  I miss the time when NPD gave actual hardware numbers.

[SaysWho?]

14 minutes ago, crispy4000 said:

What's your source on this?  I miss the time when NPD gave actual hardware numbers.

 

The OP, dude.  

 

Quote

On the hardware side, the PlayStation 4 has exceeded my expectations coming into the year and has been 2018’s leading seller in both units and dollars.  

 

[crispy4000]

2 minutes ago, SaysWho? said:

 

The OP, dude.  

 

 

Dang.

Anyways, resetera seems to think the split is this, through May:

PS4 ~ 1.53 million
NSW ~ 1.20 million
XB1 ~ 1.13 million

[AbsolutSurgen]

1 hour ago, crispy4000 said:

What's your source on this?  I miss the time when NPD gave actual hardware numbers.

As well, according to NPD, PS4 has been the top selling console every month since February.

[AndrewDean84]

8 minutes ago, mikechorney said:

As well, according to NPD, PS4 has been the top selling console every month since February.

Maybe the PS4 has sold 18 more units a month consistently. I can see why the NPD would put the Switch on top and not any of the exclusive software.  Smash won't have enough time, and Pokemon is technically two games. 

 

I think worldwide, it's a given the Switch will sell more hardware. 

[AbsolutSurgen]

1 minute ago, AndrewDean84 said:

Maybe the PS4 has sold 18 more units a month consistently. I can see why the NPD would put the Switch on top and not any of the exclusive software.  Smash won't have enough time, and Pokemon is technically two games. 

 

I think worldwide, it's a given the Switch will sell more hardware. 

18 units more would be inconsistent with the commentary they have given.

 

Why do you think it is a given that Switch will sell more worldwide?

[AndrewDean84]

45 minutes ago, mikechorney said:

18 units more would be inconsistent with the commentary they have given.

 

Why do you think it is a given that Switch will sell more worldwide?

I honestly think Japan will explode with Pokemon and Smash.  And the rest of the world will follow.

[AbsolutSurgen]

8 minutes ago, AndrewDean84 said:

I honestly think Japan will explode with Pokemon and Smash.  And the rest of the world will follow.

I understand.  It will be interesting to see if that is enough to shrink the sales gap in Europe between Switch and PS4.

[GameDadGrant]

5 hours ago, mikechorney said:

I understand.  It will be interesting to see if that is enough to shrink the sales gap in Europe between Switch and PS4.

Agreed. Though, Pokémon is a really big franchise. And Smash is pretty big, too. Guess we’ll see. 

 

I’m a little surprised PS4 is still doing as well as it is. I don’t know what keeps driving it, but Sony better not let off the gas. 

[AbsolutSurgen]

13 hours ago, GameDadGrant said:

Agreed. Though, Pokémon is a really big franchise. And Smash is pretty big, too. Guess we’ll see. 

 

I’m a little surprised PS4 is still doing as well as it is. I don’t know what keeps driving it, but Sony better not let off the gas. 

Good games coming out all the time?

[crispy4000]

PS4 has had a stellar year so far.  God of War, Detroit, Yakuza 6 and Shadow of the Colossus was a strong line-up of exclusives for the first half.  A few 'console exclusives' as well, for whatever that's worth.

[AbsolutSurgen]

1 hour ago, crispy4000 said:

PS4 has had a stellar year so far.  God of War, Detroit, Yakuza 6 and Shadow of the Colossus was a strong line-up of exclusives for the first half.  A few 'console exclusives' as well, for whatever that's worth.

Consistently good cross-platform games don't hurt either.

[SaysWho?]

And a great rest of 2018. I haven't even fully caught up on 2017 games, never mind what's already arrived on the system.

[GameDadGrant]

On 7/11/2018 at 7:25 AM, mikechorney said:

Good games coming out all the time?

 

[SaysWho?]

On 7/11/2018 at 7:25 AM, mikechorney said:

Good games coming out all the time?

 

22 hours ago, crispy4000 said:

PS4 has had a stellar year so far.  God of War, Detroit, Yakuza 6 and Shadow of the Colossus was a strong line-up of exclusives for the first half.  A few 'console exclusives' as well, for whatever that's worth.

 

1 hour ago, GameDadGrant said:

 

 

I don't know how else to tell you this...

 

But many of Switch's games this year have been old PS4 games, Wii U ports, and in some cases remasters of 16-bit games.

[Rodimus]

I think the Switch is selling well. I just don't see it overtaking the PS4 these days. I say that because it is not like the Switch is getting big game releases through out the year. Sure Pokemon and Smash will increase the Switch sales but it is kind of a dry spell between releases. Microsoft seems to have a hard time selling a $500 box. no surprise there although it is a nice peice of kit.

[GameDadGrant]

2 hours ago, SaysWho? said:

I don't know how else to tell you this...

 

But many of Switch's games this year have been old PS4 games, Wii U ports, and in some cases remasters of 16-bit games.

Is that what is driving PS4 sales? 

 

On 7/11/2018 at 1:57 PM, crispy4000 said:

PS4 has had a stellar year so far.  God of War, Detroit, Yakuza 6 and Shadow of the Colossus was a strong line-up of exclusives for the first half.  A few 'console exclusives' as well, for whatever that's worth.

Has it? Two sequels in old franchises, a decent "choose-your-own-adventure" game (78% on metacritic), and a remaster of a PS2 game from 2005. That equals a "stellar" year so far?

 

I mean, I'm okay if it is. I'm just not sure what the criteria is anymore. 

[AbsolutSurgen]

46 minutes ago, GameDadGrant said:

Is that what is driving PS4 sales? 

 

Has it? Two sequels in old franchises, a decent "choose-your-own-adventure" game (78% on metacritic), and a remaster of a PS2 game from 2005. That equals a "stellar" year so far?

 

I mean, I'm okay if it is. I'm just not sure what the criteria is anymore. 

God of War has a 94 Metacritic

Monster Hunter: World has a 90 Metacritic

Far Cry 5 has an 81 Metacritic (and is the best selling game in 2018)

 

Every single game that was on Matt's list for a top ten game is available on PS4.  All of the top 8 best selling games of 2018 are available on PS4.  9 of the top 10 best selling games over the last 12 months are available on PS4.  They may not be to your taste, but people are buying them.

[CastlevaniaNut18]

1 hour ago, GameDadGrant said:

Is that what is driving PS4 sales? 

 

Has it? Two sequels in old franchises, a decent "choose-your-own-adventure" game (78% on metacritic), and a remaster of a PS2 game from 2005. That equals a "stellar" year so far?

 

I mean, I'm okay if it is. I'm just not sure what the criteria is anymore. 

Oh, come the fuck on. I don't jack off to the PS4 like these other guys do, but even I can say you're being ridiculous. God of War alone is enough to justify good sales for the system. 

[SaysWho?]

2 hours ago, GameDadGrant said:

Is that what is driving PS4 sales? 

 

Has it? Two sequels in old franchises, a decent "choose-your-own-adventure" game (78% on metacritic), and a remaster of a PS2 game from 2005. That equals a "stellar" year so far?

 

I mean, I'm okay if it is. I'm just not sure what the criteria is anymore. 

 

No, but it's weird that someone invested in the Nintendo ecosystem can't see things like this. Like, brushing off two of the games as sequels, but... you're a Nintendo fan. That's sequel city; many of the sequels happen to be a high quality. Their big games this holiday are Super Smash and Pokemon, and last year's biggest games were Zelda, Mario and Splatoon. The Switch library isn't as good as PC, Xbox One or PS4 so far this year. I mean... what am I missing?  

[GameDadGrant]

8 minutes ago, SaysWho? said:

 

No, but it's weird that someone invested in the Nintendo ecosystem can't see things like this. Like, brushing off two of the games as sequels, but... you're a Nintendo fan. That's sequel city; many of the sequels happen to be a high quality. Their big games this holiday are Super Smash and Pokemon, and last year's biggest games were Zelda, Mario and Splatoon. The Switch library isn't as good as PC, Xbox One or PS4 so far this year. I mean... what am I missing?  

Yeah, wasn’t sure what the metric was. I’m cool with sequels. 

 

Switch has some pretty good stuff this year already with Kirby, Mario Tennis, Mario + Rabbids DLC, Octopath Traveler and the two holiday titles coming up you already mentioned.

 

Plus all the great multi-plat stuff. 

[GameDadGrant]

2 hours ago, mikechorney said:

God of War has a 94 Metacritic

Monster Hunter: World has a 90 Metacritic

Far Cry 5 has an 81 Metacritic (and is the best selling game in 2018)

 

Every single game that was on Matt's list for a top ten game is available on PS4.  All of the top 8 best selling games of 2018 are available on PS4.  9 of the top 10 best selling games over the last 12 months are available on PS4.  They may not be to your taste, but people are buying them.

Yeah, and I get that. But why on PS4? A lot of those games are multi-plat/on PC. What’s the draw to Playstation? 

 

Brand name/loyalty? Nostalgia? Something else? 

 

Honestly curious.

[GameDadGrant]

1 hour ago, CastlevaniaNut18 said:

Oh, come the fuck on. I don't jack off to the PS4 like these other guys do, but even I can say you're being ridiculous. God of War alone is enough to justify good sales for the system. 

Yeah I heard it was pretty good. 

[Rodimus]

7 minutes ago, GameDadGrant said:

Yeah, and I get that. But why on PS4? A lot of those games are multi-plat/on PC. What’s the draw to Playstation? 

 

Brand name/loyalty? Nostalgia? Something else? 

 

Honestly curious.

How about market share. Also Digital PC game sales are not included. Multi-plat games sell better on PS4 because there are more of them. 

[SaysWho?]

3 minutes ago, GameDadGrant said:

Yeah, wasn’t sure what the metric was. I’m cool with sequels. 

 

Switch has some pretty good stuff this year already with Kirby, Mario Tennis, Mario + Rabbids DLC, Octopath Traveler and the two holiday titles coming up you already mentioned.

 

Plus all the great multi-plat stuff. 

 

I mean, if we're dismissing a game as being "decent" for averaging 78% on Metacritic, I'm not sure what that says about Kirby (73%), Mario Tennis (76%), or Mario + Rabbids DLC (81%, only three points higher) . Octopath looks really nice, but with its publisher being Square-Enix, I'm not sure it's not eventually coming to other platforms.

 

Most of the multi-plat stuff is old and already on PS4/XBO/PC, whereas the new multiplats are on those three (Far Cry, Monster Hunter World, which is never coming to Switch, Yakuza 6 on PS4). If you think the multiplat stuff is great, then it should be easy to see what's so good about the other libraries!

[CastlevaniaNut18]

23 minutes ago, SaysWho? said:

 

I mean, if we're dismissing a game as being "decent" for averaging 78% on Metacritic, I'm not sure what that says about Kirby (73%), Mario Tennis (76%), or Mario + Rabbids DLC (81%, only three points higher) . Octopath looks really nice, but with its publisher being Square-Enix, I'm not sure it's not eventually coming to other platforms.

 

Most of the multi-plat stuff is old and already on PS4/XBO/PC, whereas the new multiplats are on those three (Far Cry, Monster Hunter World, which is never coming to Switch, Yakuza 6 on PS4). If you think the multiplat stuff is great, then it should be easy to see what's so good about the other libraries!

You need to stop making sense. Like, now. 

[SaysWho?]

1 minute ago, CastlevaniaNut18 said:

You need to stop making sense. Like, now.