Fake weather, only the best weather. Heat waves are very biased, very unfair

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

 

 

 

 

[thewhyteboar]

31 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

 

 

 

 

The thought of his Playmobil-shaped physique standing in front of a green screen wildly gesticulating at cold fronts does fill me with glee.

[Kal-El814]

I need @SaysWho? to explain what service a new weather network would use. My understanding is that TWC uses national services, and I assume that’s what a Fox service would use as well. I know not all of Fox is toxic nonsense, I wonder what their angle would be.

[CitizenVectron]

25 minutes ago, Kal-El814 said:

I need @SaysWho? to explain what service a new weather network would use. My understanding is that TWC uses national services, and I assume that’s what a Fox service would use as well. I know not all of Fox is toxic nonsense, I wonder what their angle would be.

 

They would station people around the coastline (and interior) who would tweet current conditions. Much more accurate than liberal computers!

[Guest]

Weather reports are all fake news as far as I'm concerned

[silentbob]

They will argue against global warming/rising sea levels by showing themselves easily building a sandcastle on a still sandy looking beach. If the seas were rising, we wouldn’t have such a lovely beachfront like this. Eventually doing the same report without showing the ocean, by building sandcastles at Mar-a-Lago in a sand bunker 

[Guest]

39 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

Weather reports are all fake news as far as I'm concerned

Accept for @SaysWho?. THAT GUY IS THE TITS!

[SaysWho?]

1 hour ago, Kal-El814 said:

I need @SaysWho? to explain what service a new weather network would use. My understanding is that TWC uses national services, and I assume that’s what a Fox service would use as well. I know not all of Fox is toxic nonsense, I wonder what their angle would be.

 

I honestly don't know. TWC meteorologists are all going to look at the models their own way and come up with their own forecasts, and local meteorologists are going to hyper-localize what they see to give a more accurate report of a smaller area.

 

I don't know what else besides a network that uses meteorologists who don't accept man-made climate change being a thing.

 

35 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

Weather reports are all fake news as far as I'm concerned

 

brah, y u gotta...

[Keyser_Soze]

@SaysWho? will decide what the weather is like outside

[SuperSpreader]

My phone tells me the weather 

[Guest]

@SaysWho?it feeeeels like NHC and the various models that feed into their predictions are getting better and better. Is this the case?

[SaysWho?]

7 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

@SaysWho?it feeeeels like NHC and the various models that feed into their predictions are getting better and better. Is this the case?

 

100%. Intensity still sucks, and meteorologists will easily admit this. But the margin of error for a track has gone down by hundreds of miles since the 80s.

 

NHC is also good at ascertaining what models do better when, and using not just the models but the atmospheric setup in knowing which models to lean into more.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

1 minute ago, SaysWho? said:

 

100%. Intensity still sucks, and meteorologists will easily admit this. But the margin of error for a track has gone down by hundreds of miles since the 80s.

 

NHC is also good at ascertaining what models do better when, and using not just the models but the atmospheric setup in knowing which models to lean into more.

Didn't you also post a graph showing how forecasts have gotten better to the point where a 3 day forecast from years ago is worse than a 5-7 day forecast today? Or something to that effect

[SaysWho?]

9 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

@SaysWho?it feeeeels like NHC and the various models that feed into their predictions are getting better and better. Is this the case?

 

In fact, part 2 of the answer:

 

When someone says, "I don't trust you guys because I still remember how off you were with Andrew/Charley/whichever, they're talking about forecasting when forecasting tech was far less accurate. So yeah, they took a track that was different enough that people who weren't as concerned should have been the ones most prepared, but the tech wasn't there yet.

 

And it still has a ways to go, but two years ago, Dorian was a monster cat 5 hovering right next to Miami, and we were able to say, "Nothing's gonna happen to Miami." May not have been possible when I was born.

[SaysWho?]

Just now, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

Didn't you also post a graph showing how forecasts have gotten better to the point where a 3 day forecast from years ago is worse than a 5-7 day forecast today? Or something to that effect

 

Yup.

 

Why Weather Forecasters Are Role Models | FiveThirtyEight

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM

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An excerpt from my forthcoming book, “The Signal and the Noise,” was published this week in The New York Times Magazine. You can find an online version of the e…

 

 

This is also why I say yes, the models are way better, but they're not perfect, and of all the careers that involve prognostication, meteorologists have undoubtedly improved in correcting those models.

 

"But there are literally countless other areas in which weather models fail in more subtle ways and rely on human correction. Perhaps the computer tends to be too conservative on forecasting nighttime rainfalls in Seattle when there’s a low-pressure system in Puget Sound. Perhaps it doesn’t know that the fog in Acadia National Park in Maine will clear up by sunrise if the wind is blowing in one direction but can linger until midmorning if it’s coming from another. These are the sorts of distinctions that forecasters glean over time as they learn to work around potential flaws in the computer’s forecasting model, in the way that a skilled pool player can adjust to the dead spots on the table at his local bar."

 

That's why, even with all the models, you saw the GFS outperform the Euro with Hurricane Elsa, so it's not always as easy as, "Let's just use the Euro". There are a lot of subtleties to correct, which become easier just with repetition of using them.

[Guest]

Thanks @SaysWho?