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Россия invades Україна | UPDATE (13 June 2024) - US and Ukraine sign bilateral security agreement for long-term supply and cooperation


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ISW analysis for 30 March 2022:

 

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

Russia is withdrawing some elements of its forces around Kyiv into Belarus for likely redeployment to other axes of advance and did not conduct any offensive operations around the city in the past 24 hours, but Russian forces will likely continue to hold

 

 

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Russia is withdrawing some elements of its forces around Kyiv into Belarus for likely redeployment to other axes of advance and did not conduct any offensive operations around the city in the past 24 hours, but Russian forces will likely continue to hold their forwardmost positions and shell Ukrainian forces and residential areas. Ukrainian forces repelled several Russian attacks in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in the past 24 hours and Russian forces likely continued to take territory in Mariupol. Russian forces held their positions and did not conduct offensive operations throughout the rest of the country. Russian forces will likely capture Mariupol in the coming days but likely suffered high casualties taking the city, and Russian force generation efforts and the redeployment of damaged units from the Kyiv axis are increasingly unlikely to enable Russian forces to make rapid gains in the Donbas region.

 

Key Takeaways

  • Russian forces around Kyiv held their forward positions and continued to defend against limited Ukrainian counterattacks. Russian forces are unlikely to give up their secured territory around the city and are continuing to dig in.
  • ISW can confirm Russia is withdrawing some units around Kyiv for likely redeployment to other axes of advance, but cannot confirm any changes in Russian force posture around Chernihiv as of this time.
  • Russian forces did not conduct any offensive operations in northeastern Ukraine in the past 24 hours.
  • Elements of the 20th Combined Arms Army and 1st Guards Tank Army are redeploying to support Russian operations on Izyum, but are unlikely to take the city in the near future.
  • Ukrainian forces repelled continuing Russian assaults in Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts. Russian forces continued to take territory in Mariupol but are likely suffering high casualties.

 

Russia is reportedly increasingly deploying support personnel and auxiliary units to replace combat losses in Ukraine. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russia is deploying servicemen from military support units, including educational institutions, to replace combat losses.[1] Russian officer casualties and the decision to strip Russian training units of personnel will further impede the Russian military’s ability to train new conscripts and replacements. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that three battalion tactical groups (BTGs) including up to 2,000 Russian and South Ossetian personnel from Russia’s 4th and 7th Military Bases in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, respectively, deployed to unspecified locations in Ukraine.[2] Social media users observed South Ossetian forces in the Donbas region on March 29, but ISW cannot independently confirm if the entirety of these reinforcements were deployed to Donbas.[3]

 

The Ukrainian General Staff additionally stated that Russia faces continuing morale and supply issues, including contract servicemen (volunteer troops, not conscripts) in the 26th Tank Regiment requesting to terminate their contracts and relocate to garrison service, and elements of the 150th Motor Rifle Division receiving inoperable equipment from military storage.[4] The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate additionally claimed that Russian military procurement is “on the verge of failure” due to western sanctions and that Russia cannot produce modern weapons and equipment without foreign electronics.[5] ISW cannot independently confirm these Ukrainian intelligence reports, but they are largely consistent with previously confirmed reports of low Russian morale and equipment failures.

 

 

 

DraftUkraineCoTMarch30,2022.png

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22 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

I'm HIGHLY skeptical of stories that are featured in Visegrad 24 (and you should be too!)

 

For example, there is absolutely no way in hell that the Swedish source that Visegrad picked up for this story would have any bloody idea whether any of these Russian aircraft (specifically the SU-24 Fencers that are highlighted) were carrying nukes when they violated Swedish airspace:

 

 

Furthermore, before this war, Visegrad made a name for itself by being a shill for some of the most odious political actors in Central/Eastern Europe, most notably Viktor Orban of Hungary.  In other words, just because they pro-Ukrainian doesn't mean any of us should give them the time of day.

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4 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

Some people have said that they are likely older anti-tank mines with no magnetic trigger, and their physical trigger won't initiate unless there's about 350lb+ force on them. So as long as your wheels don't hit, you're fine...

As someone with no mine experience, do these explode if you pick them up? I remember that video from a few weeks ago where the guy smoking a cig picked one up and moved it off the road. 

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8 minutes ago, DarkStar189 said:

As someone with no mine experience, do these explode if you pick them up? I remember that video from a few weeks ago where the guy smoking a cig picked one up and moved it off the road. 

It depends on whether or not they installed anti-tamper devices. Some mines have them automatically built in. Some don't. And some you can add to them.

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21 minutes ago, DarkStar189 said:

As someone with no mine experience, do these explode if you pick them up? I remember that video from a few weeks ago where the guy smoking a cig picked one up and moved it off the road. 

 

I would play it safe and simply never pick up a landmine.

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Apparently Russian troops are now having issues with radiation poisoning. 

 

TM6DNTJJ4ZJJ7CDCYCPMIAXUFY.jpg
WWW.REUTERS.COM

Russian soldiers who seized the site of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster drove their armoured vehicles without radiation protection through a highly toxic zone called the "Red Forest"...

 

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