Россия invades Україна | UPDATE (03 May 2024) - Drones now kill more soldiers than artillery or bullets

[Jwheel86]

21 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

As generals go (since everyone in Russia is a general), how high is this in American terms?

 

2 star, but Russians are weird about what rank commands what. I think they command Armies which is kind of sort like a US Corps? @CayceG?

[CitizenVectron]

Here's a better large-scale picture of what Ukraine has accomplished in the last three days, and why Kup'yansk is so important. Orange lines show what Ukraine has taken (and likely actually a little bit more to the south now, especially along the river). Red dot shows Kup'yansk. Green lines are the main rail lines that Russia needs to move troops. As you can see, if you cut of Kup'yansk, you cut off Izyum and other eastern cities from being re-supplied by rail from Russia:

 

[CayceG]

9 hours ago, Jwheel86 said:

 

2 star, but Russians are weird about what rank commands what. I think they command Armies which is kind of sort like a US Corps? @CayceG?

 

 

Commanding an "Army" appears to be right, but I can't speak to how many troops that is or what formations that entail. 

 

This is what Newsweek says:

Quote

There also appears to be doubt over Sychevoi's current role. When he was sanctioned by the European Union on February 28, he was commander of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District.

But in June, the Conflict Intelligence Team [CIT] said that according to its sources, Sychevoi, who was an ex-commander of the 8th Army, had taken over the post in the Western Military District.

Analyst Lee said in a follow up tweet that he appeared to have been replaced "a month ago", citing a Russian Telegram channel.

 

My guess is that he was assigned to command a grouping of troops in the northwestern area of the Donbas. 

[CitizenVectron]

Ukraine isn't just encircling/assaulting Kup'yansk, they appear to also be moving down the river towards Izyum. There are approximately 10,000 Russians in Izyum, most under-trained and under-equipped. If Ukraine can quickly encircle them, it's game over.

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

Russian commanders know what's up:

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

Also word of a breakthrough in Kherson. Man...things are not going well for Russia, and I can only get so erect.

[CitizenVectron]

Hard to tell through fog of war, but there are reports that Ukraine has moved down along the Oskil river in Kharkiv, and has now taken the (abandoned) town of Oskil directly east of Izyum. If that is true (big if)...then Izyum and the thousands of Russians there are truly trapped.

 

 

Ukraine also appears to have blown the main bridge across the Oskil in Kup'yansk, which prevents the Russians there from retreating or being reinforced. There appears to be fighting in the city now.

 

Sorry to all for all these new town names and whatnot, I know it's tough to keep up with the important locations on the front as things are moving so quickly.

[CitizenVectron]

Oh, also, Ukraine is claiming to have killed over 1,200 Russians in the past few days, and captured a bunch more.

[CitizenVectron]

Fighting south of Izyum now. There is a real chance that both Kup'yansk and Izyum fall in the next few days. The latter could mean thousands of POWs, potentially, if they didn't manage to flee in time.

[CitizenVectron]

 

 

EDIT - lol

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

ISW analysis for 08 September 2022:

 

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 8 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

---

Ukrainian successes on the Kharkiv City-Izyum line are creating fissures within the Russian information space and eroding confidence in Russian command to a degree not seen since a failed Russian river crossing in mid-May. Ukrainian military officials

 

Quote

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

 

Ukrainian successes on the Kharkiv City-Izyum line are creating fissures within the Russian information space and eroding confidence in Russian command to a degree not seen since a failed Russian river crossing in mid-May. Ukrainian military officials announced that Ukrainian forces advanced 50km deep into Russian defensive positions north of Izyum on September 8, but the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) notably did not issue any statement regarding Ukrainian advances in Kharkiv Oblast.[1] Ukrainian successes and the Russian MoD’s silence prompted many Russian milbloggers to criticize and debate Russian failures to retain control over the city of Balakliya, approximately 44km northwest of Izyum. Some milbloggers claimed that Russian forces fully or partially withdrew from Balakliya in good order, while others complained that Ukrainian forces beat Russian forces out of the settlement.[2] Others noted that Rosgvardia units operating in the area did not coordinate their defenses or have sufficient artillery capabilities to prevent Ukrainian counterattacks in the region.[3] Milbloggers warned about an impending Ukrainian counteroffensive northwest of Izyum for days prior to Ukrainian advances, and some milbloggers noted that Russian command failed to prepare for “obvious and predictable” Ukrainian counteroffensives.[4] Others noted that Ukrainian forces have “completely outplayed” the Russian military command in Balakliya, while others encouraged readers to wait to discuss Russian losses and withhold criticism until Russian forces stabilize the frontlines.[5]

 

The current tone and scale of Russian milblogger criticism echo the response to Russia’s loss of a large amount of armor in a failed Russian river crossing in Bilohorivka, Luhansk Oblast, in May.[6] ISW assessed at the time that the catastrophic Russian losses suffered due to incompetence shook the confidence of pro-Russian milbloggers, sparking criticism of the Russian war effort. Russian milbloggers and social media users accessed satellite imagery that showed devastating losses of Russian military equipment, which caused many to comment on the incompetence of the Russian military and analyze the scene on a tactical level. The Russian MoD did not comment on the situation, fueling burgeoning doubts about Russia’s prospects in Ukraine.

 

The Russian MoD repeated its Bilohorivka information mistake by failing to acknowledge the situation around Kharkiv Oblast and establish a desired narrative, leaving milbloggers to fill this gap with criticism of Russian forces. The Russian MoD only claimed to have destroyed a Ukrainian ammunition depot in Balakliya.[7] Some milbloggers complained that the Russian MoD did not seize the information space in a timely manner to prevent the spread of Ukrainian social media on Russian Telegram channels, leading to distrust among Russian audiences.[8] Milbloggers largely supported the Russian MoD’s narratives that the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast had completely failed just days prior to Ukrainian breakthroughs in Kharkiv Oblast.[9] Such a shift in milblogger perceptions of Russian progress in Ukraine can be partially attributed to the flaws in the Russian war-time information strategy, namely that:

1. The Russian MoD struggles to address unexpected Ukrainian operations because its information strategy relies on portraying the Russian invasion of Ukraine as an easy and faultless operation. This promotes a lack of situational awareness within the Kremlin and the Russian media space.
2. The Russian MoD needs a significant amount of time to develop and spread false narratives in the Russian information space. The Kremlin and Russian MoD successfully did so prior to the long-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south, and milbloggers largely followed the Kremlin’s line. The Russian MoD failed to have a narrative ready for Ukrainian operations in Kharkiv Oblast.
3. Milbloggers will share and promote footage and imagery of fighting unfavorable to Russian forces that will dominate coverage in the Russian information space if the Russian MoD does not provide its own media.

 

Key Takeaways

• Ukrainian successes on the Kharkiv City-Izyum line are creating fissures within the Russian information space and eroding confidence in Russian command to a degree not seen since a failed Russian river crossing in mid-May.
• Ukrainian forces in the Kharkiv Oblast counteroffensives advanced to within 20 kilometers of Russia’s key logistical node in Kupyansk on September 8.
• Ukrainian forces will likely capture Kupyansk in the next 72 hours, severely degrading but not completely severing Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum.
• Ukrainian forces are continuing to target Russian GLOCs, command-and-control points, and ammunition depots in Kherson Oblast.
• Russian occupation authorities continue to intensify crackdowns and filtration measures to curb Ukrainian partisans and pro-Ukrainian saboteurs.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks across the Eastern Axis.

 

 

[CayceG]

Things are going to become very difficult for Ukraine when their forces reach a natural barrier such as a river. My guess is that they'll pause, reinforce, and see the state of things before making a push across something like the Oskil River in Kupyansk. 

[CayceG]

 

[CitizenVectron]

In response to the Ukrainian breakthrough, Russia is indiscriminately shelling civilian areas in the city of Kharkiv (pop. 1.4 million):

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

Kharkiv reveals the major issue with ending this war: even if Ukraine can push Russia back to its borders...Kharkiv lies within artillery range of the border. Unless a demilitarized zone can be set up, Russia can keep firing at Ukrainian cities forever.

[CitizenVectron]

The Russian occupation administration in Kharkiv apparently just announced the "evacuation of Kup'yans'k, Izyum and Velykyj Burluk." Waiting on more official word, but if so, the Russians are in a full route. Maybe they hope they can blow the three bridges over the Oskil (one is already blown, actually) and hold Ukraine there.

[CayceG]

7 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

The Russian occupation administration in Kharkiv apparently just announced the "evacuation of Kup'yans'k, Izyum and Velykyj Burluk." Waiting on more official word, but if so, the Russians are in a full route. Maybe they hope they can blow the three bridges over the Oskil (one is already blown, actually) and hold Ukraine there.

 

 

Did some mapping. That's approximately within this yellow boundary.

 

[PaladinSolo]

45 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

Kharkiv reveals the major issue with ending this war: even if Ukraine can push Russia back to its borders...Kharkiv lies within artillery range of the border. Unless a demilitarized zone can be set up, Russia can keep firing at Ukrainian cities forever.

Well once Russia loses this war they'll be fighting each other soon enough, so i wouldn't worry about it.

[marioandsonic]

Haven't been paying attention to the war, but it seems like Ukraine is still doing well, and now are counterattacking?

[PaladinSolo]

The most important thing the US can do when this ends is continue to pour in aid to Ukraine to rebuild, cement a lasting relationship with the strongest nation in Europe and abundant resources.  Basically a republican can not win the WH anytime soon, lol.

[CayceG]

16 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said:

The most important thing the US can do when this ends is continue to pour in aid to Ukraine to rebuild, cement a lasting relationship with the strongest nation in Europe and abundant resources.  Basically a republican can not win the WH anytime soon, lol.

 

 

Yes. But also, the US could still have Dems in control and still flood Ukraine with "consulting" services and contingent aid money that continues the neoliberal hollowing out of another eastern European state. 

 

The Oligarchy in Ukraine could potentially be persuaded into sharing their ownership in exchange for big payouts and big profits, with losses, poor labor protection, and social service cuts flowing downstream to normal Ukrainians. And the US will turn a blind eye to far right extremism and anti-LGBTQ sentiments in the country as we will be content to extract wealth from Ukraine while denying it admission into NATO. 

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

lol

 

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

As absolutely heartening as it is to see the success of the Ukrainian operations near Izyum, I really hope that they're mindful to not outpace their supporting fires nor get too greedy and therefore create a difficult-to-defend salient deep within Russian-controlled territory.

[CitizenVectron]

Comical, if it weren't a war:

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

Update on what seems to be happening today:

 

New orange lines show estimated expanded gains by Ukraine, and pink Xs show where fighting is currently being reported:

 

 

EDIT - Should also be a pink X over Kup'yansk, which is the red dot top-right of the Ukrainian advance.

[CayceG]

3 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

Russian amphibious BMPs...apparently aren't so amphibious:

 

 

 

 

This is 5 years old  

[CitizenVectron]

9 minutes ago, CayceG said:

 

 

This is 5 years old  

 

That's why I deleted it before you replied  

[CitizenVectron]

Fighting continues in Kup'yansk:

 

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

Jesus

 

 

It seems unbelievable, and maybe it is.

[CitizenVectron]

Apparently Ukrainians are assaulting the city from the east (the Russian side). Also moving on the town/city of Svyatohirs'k and Lyman, N and NE of Slov'yansʹk. Ukraine is punching holes in the Russian front everywhere in Kharkiv (and the latter two settlements are in Donetsk).

[CitizenVectron]

Also, unless Russian soldiers evacuated Izyum, there are anywhere from 5,000-10,000 trapped.

[PaladinSolo]

Ruskies be like, oh yeah we can make cool videos too!! Oh fuck! 

 

 

[Greatoneshere]

7 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said:

Ruskies be like, oh yeah we can make cool videos too!! Oh fuck! 

 

 

 

The self-own here is impressive. 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[CayceG]

 

 

 

It sounds like this Russian soldier is unimpressed that his forces aren't able to use wide-area effect artillery like the TOS-1. It's a neat view into things because he says commanders are prohibiting their use so as to not cause more collateral damage. That's not something that NAFO or the typical chatter really references. 

 

Not to "hand it to them" or anything, but the Russian commanders are at least cognizant of it. But it's notable that the soldier himself is pretty into the idea of using them. 

 

Now, the TOS-1 doesn't have anywhere near the firing range of a HIMARS. So if they brought them up to attack formations, they'd likely be struck by counter-battery fire from out of range. Which is another consideration I bet Russian command is taking into account.