General Gaming October NPD

[Dodger]

Since @SaysWho? apparently can't be bothered. 

 

October was an above average month, though down from last year due to RDR2

 

Top 20 best-selling games of October in the U.S.

 

1. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2019
2. The Outer Worlds
3. Luigi’s Mansion 3*
4. Madden NFL 20
5. NBA 2K20
6. Tom Clancy’s Ghost Recon: Breakpoint
7. WWE 2K20
8. FIFA 20
9. Borderlands 3
10. Ring Fit Adventure
11. The Legend of Zelda: Link’s Awakening*
12. Mario Kart 8*
13. Minecraft#
14. Grand Theft Auto V
15. Mortal Kombat 11
16. Overwatch
17. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate*
18. Code Vein
19. Red Dead Redemption II
20. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild*

* Digital sales not included
# Digital sales only include Xbox One and PlayStation 4

The 10 best-selling games of 2019 so far
 

• Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2019
• NBA 2K20
• Madden NFL 20
• Borderlands 3
• Mortal Kombat 11
• Kingdom Hearts III
• Tom Clancy’s The Division 2
• Anthem
• Super Smash Bros. Ultimate*
• Grand Theft Auto V

 

The 10 best-selling games of the last 12 months
 

• Red Dead Redemption II
• Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2019
• Super Smash Bros. Ultimate*
• Call of Duty: Black Ops IIII
• NBA 2K20
• Madden NFL 20
• Borderlands 3
• Mortal Kombat 11
• NBA 2K19
• Battlefield V

 

Xbox One
 

• Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2019
• Tom Clancy’s Ghost Recon: Breakpoint
• Madden NFL 20
• The Outer Worlds
• NBA 2K20
• Borderlands 3
• WWE 2K20
• FIFA 20
• Grand Theft Auto V
• Gears 5

 

PlayStation 4
 

• Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2019
• The Outer Worlds
• NBA 2K20
• Madden NFL 20
• Tom Clancy’s Ghost Recon: Breakpoint
• WWE 2K20
• FIFA 20
• Borderlands 3
• Mortal Kombat 11
• Grand Theft Auto V

 

Nintendo Switch
 

• Luigi’s Mansion 3*
• Ring Fit Adventure
• The Legend of Zelda: Link’s Awakening*
• Mario Kart 8*
• Super Smash Bros. Ultimate*
• Overwatch
• The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild*
• The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt*
• Super Mario Maker 2*
• New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe*

 

Nintendo 3DS
 

• Pokemon: Ultra Sun*
• Pokemon: Ultra Moon*
• Mario Kart 7*
• Luigi’s Mansion*
• The Legend of Zelda: Majora’s Mask 3D*
• Super Mario 3D Land*
• Luigi’s Mansion: Dark Moon*
• Super Mario Maker*
• Super Smash Bros.*
• Minecraft*

 

Call of Duty: Modern Warfare

The latest Call of Duty is keeping that franchise’s momentum going strong.

“Call of Duty: Modern Warfare debuts as the best-selling game of October 2019, and is now the best-selling game of 2019 year to date,” said Piscatella. “This is the 12th consecutive year a Call of Duty game has ranked as the best-selling game of its release month. Call of Duty remains the best-selling video game franchise in U.S. tracked history by dollar sales.”

Luigi’s Mansion 3

“Luigi’s Mansion 3 was the third best-selling game of October, while also being the month’s best-selling game on Nintendo Switch,”said Piscatella. “Luigi’s Mansion 3 set a new launch month franchise sales record, besting the previous high set by Luigi’s Mansion.”

Fighting games in 2019

“Year-to-date sales of fighting genre games are at an all-time high, with genre sales 11 percent higher than the previous year-to-date high set in 2015,” said Piscatella. “Both Mortal Kombat 11 and Super Smash Bros. Ultimate have significantly contributed to that success.”

Hardware

Hardware sales fell 41% vs October 2018 to $182m. YTD hardware sales fell 23% vs 2018 to $2.1b. Switch is the only console to make gains both in October and YTD. Switch is again the best selling console this month and remains the best selling console of the year. PS4 is the third fastest selling console in U.S. history, after the Wii and PS2. Per Mat Piscatella:

[Brian]

@Pikachu please reformat 

[Pikachu]

3 minutes ago, ManUtdRedDevils said:

@Pikachu please reformat 

You got it!

[XxEvil AshxX]

NBA 2K20 selling as well as it does.

 

 

[SaysWho?]

Been busy!

[Dodger]

TOW is another example of a game on GP going on to sell well. GP is clearly not a sales killer. Too bad we won't get too many games launching on GP and PS4 day and date to compare it to, since GP is probably boosting sales of this game on PS4 too due to it's great word of mouth. I wonder if MS will ever convince a third party multiplatform game to launch on GP on release date. Would be interesting to see the sales results and to see if the PS4/5 version gets a boost in sales due to the added exposure of the game being on GP. 

[crispy4000]

1 hour ago, Dodger said:

TOW is another example of a game on GP going on to sell well. GP is clearly not a sales killer. Too bad we won't get too many games launching on GP and PS4 day and date to compare it to, since GP is probably boosting sales of this game on PS4 too due to it's great word of mouth. I wonder if MS will ever convince a third party multiplatform game to launch on GP on release date. Would be interesting to see the sales results and to see if the PS4/5 version gets a boost in sales due to the added exposure of the game being on GP. 

 

It'd be much more accurate to say it's the first to exceed NPD expectations since Forza Horizon 4 last year.  GP heavily hurt Gears 5's NPDs relative to Gears 4.  Possibly because Gears 5 was marketed so heavily around it.

 

You could have a point for multiplatform releases.  Jumping on GP could boost PC/PS4 sales to some degree.  Enough to make up for lost revenue on Xbox One ... who knows.  We don't know what Microsoft paid Private Division to put it on GP.

I'm inclined to believe major multiplatform publishers would rather own the subscription service they put their day-and-date releases on.  Door's already been opened for EA and Ubisoft.

[Dodger]

3 minutes ago, crispy4000 said:

 

It'd be much more accurate to say it's the first to exceed NPD expectations since Forza Horizon 4 last year.  GP heavily hurt Gears 5's NPDs relative to Gears 4.  Possibly because Gears 5 was marketed so heavily around it.

 

You may have a point for multiplatform releases.  Jumping on GP could boost PC/PS4 sales to some degree.  Enough to make up for lost revenue ... who knows.  We don't know what Microsoft paid Private Division to put it on there.

I'm inclined most major multiplatform publishers would rather own the subscription service they put their day-and-date releases on.

 

 

I think Gears 5 is the only game we can say had lower than expected sales because of GP, and even then MS has said it drove GP subscriptions. At this point we've had numerous devs say that being on GP has driven sales beyond their expectations. Even if you're only going from a first party perspective, State of Decay 2 and Sea of Thieves are considered to have sold above expectations despite being critical duds and being on GP. I think overall it's pretty clear this idea that all GP is doing is getting MS $1 rentals is false. 

 

Obviously we don't and probably never will have access to the numbers, but if GP was killing sales and revenue as a bunch of $1 free loaders being the only people playing the games MS at some point would kill the program, but they seem to be all in on the GP train and they either are already seeing a positive return on that investment or expect to see one soon.

[crispy4000]

23 minutes ago, Dodger said:

I think Gears 5 is the only game we can say had lower than expected sales because of GP, and even then MS has said it drove GP subscriptions. At this point we've had numerous devs say that being on GP has driven sales beyond their expectations. Even if you're only going from a first party perspective, State of Decay 2 and Sea of Thieves are considered to have sold above expectations despite being critical duds and being on GP. I think overall it's pretty clear this idea that all GP is doing is getting MS $1 rentals is false. 

 

Obviously we don't and probably never will have access to the numbers, but if GP was killing sales and revenue as a bunch of $1 free loaders being the only people playing the games MS at some point would kill the program, but they seem to be all in on the GP train and they either are already seeing a positive return on that investment or expect to see one soon.

 

Crackdown 3.  Beyond that and Gears 5, Microsoft hasn't released any first party retail games this calendar year.  Both have reversed trends from the previous year.

The underlying theory I've had is that the more normalized GP becomes, the less people will be inclined to purchasing big box retail Xbox games, especially those available day and date on the service. It only makes sense, because of GP's potential to change consumer habits.  Earlier games like Sea of Thieves and State of Decay 2 came at a time when the service was still trying to find its way into public consciousness.  Microsoft's since doubled down on GP's marketing and promotions, and I think we've seen the service reach that critical tipping point of it hurting retail this year.  With Gears 5 and Crackdown 3 being the evidence.

Indie games are an exception, of course.  We never needed Games Pass to tell us that.  The whole reason Rocket League caught years ago on was its inclusion in PS+ for a month.  Indies need word of mouth more than an AAA title with a multi-million dollar marketing campaign.  So there's going to be more instances where they come out ahead.  And that's where we've gotten most of the stories of GP increasing sales lately (Decenders being the poster child).

Also, Microsoft has been doing the $1 rental thing.  That's a fact.  But I expect people will stick around regardless after the promotions end.  Microsoft was okay with propping Gears 5 up as a sacrificial lamb with those promotions in order to build that long term subscription base.

[Dodger]

Crackdown 3 was terrible and can't really be used as a data point. Some of these game are going to be stinkers and you can't turn around say ha see GP is a failure because a few shitty games bombed, and again Games Pass potentially saved 2 bombs in the form of State of Decay 2 and Sea of Thieves. You can argue why they succeeded on GP, but you can't argue that they ultimately succeeded. 

 

We literally have a game on Games Pass hitting #2 on NPD during Call of Duty month, where nothing outside of a Rockstar game is going to challenge that for #1. 

[crispy4000]

9 hours ago, Dodger said:

Crackdown 3 was terrible and can't really be used as a data point. Some of these game are going to be stinkers and you can't turn around say ha see GP is a failure because a few shitty games bombed, and again Games Pass potentially saved 2 bombs in the form of State of Decay 2 and Sea of Thieves. You can argue why they succeeded on GP, but you can't argue that they ultimately succeeded. 

 

We literally have a game on Games Pass hitting #2 on NPD during Call of Duty month, where nothing outside of a Rockstar game is going to challenge that for #1. 

 

Crackdown 3 alone couldn't.  That's why Gears 5's franchise drop in last month's NPD was so telling.  People generally aren't buying it as much as they're GP'ing it.  And probably a lot of them at those $1 (or no dollar!) promotions.

Does that make GP a failure?  No.  Not at all.  It's all what Microsoft wants at this point.

Games Pass was the best thing State of Decay 2 and Sea of Thieves could have asked for.  They're both types of games that benefit most from a subscription service versus a strictly traditional release. Furthermore, it was advantageous for Microsoft to position them when they did.  To get them out in the initial promotions.  If a new Gears/Halo came out first on GP, I doubt SoT/SoD2 would have performed as well as they did historically in 2018's NPDs.

As for Outer Worlds, I don't think we can say anything conclusive on how much GP propelled sales on other platforms.  A lot of factors could play into how well it did.  But as I mentioned, it's going to be an anomaly regardless, because it was likely Microsoft's deal with Obsidian and Private Division that got it on GP day-and-date in the first place.

No large 3rd party publisher is looking at this and thinking "... we should just put our multiplatform game on GP on its launch day."  They're thinking "... we need our own subscription service."

[Dodger]

I'm not even sure what your argument is at this point. We have 2 games that have flopped on GP, even though MS says Gears 5 drove subscriptions, every other game that is a success you have some excuse to explain away. Are you arguing that Games Pass is bad? Show me on the doll where Games Pass touched you. Much like MS and Sony get millions from XBL/PSN subs, MS wants to make millions off of Games Pass subs. Maybe Games Pass leads to less games sales, but MS wants to make up for it in guaranteed sub revenue, plus it just locks you into their ecosystem. By all accounts, so far Games Pass is a smashing success. Sounds like you're just afraid it's success will cause other publishers to push for their own sub models, which much like what's going on with tv right now would suck. Actually it probably wouldn't even matter unless publishers only release their games into their subscriptions, as long as you can purchase separately it's literally not even a problem. 

 

But I don't want to put words in your mouth so what exactly is your argument or thoughts regarding Games Pass? I'll admit, they got me hook line and sinker saying it's the best value in gaming, and as it stands even if I couldn't get it for free, I'd pay the $9.99 or I guess $14.99 a month for ultimate because the value is definitely there for me. 

[SoberChef]

When & how are they going to begin to track digital sales? I say this considering Destiny: Shadowkeep's launch alongside New Light and how those numbers turned out for Bungie.

[Guest]

Remember when the NPD reports had actual numbers and was interesting?

[XxEvil AshxX]

I want to say that there actually has been a major third party release day one on GP. I'll have to look back and see what it was.

[Brian]

7 hours ago, crispy4000 said:

 

It'd be much more accurate to say it's the first to exceed NPD expectations since Forza Horizon 4 last year.  GP heavily hurt Gears 5's NPDs relative to Gears 4.  Possibly because Gears 5 was marketed so heavily around it.

Phil Spencer: Gears 5 sold well for us. It sold better than Gears 4.

 

[crispy4000]

8 hours ago, Dodger said:

I'm not even sure what your argument is at this point. We have 2 games that have flopped on GP, even though MS says Gears 5 drove subscriptions, every other game that is a success you have some excuse to explain away. Are you arguing that Games Pass is bad? Show me on the doll where Games Pass touched you. Much like MS and Sony get millions from XBL/PSN subs, MS wants to make millions off of Games Pass subs. Maybe Games Pass leads to less games sales, but MS wants to make up for it in guaranteed sub revenue, plus it just locks you into their ecosystem. By all accounts, so far Games Pass is a smashing success. Sounds like you're just afraid it's success will cause other publishers to push for their own sub models, which much like what's going on with tv right now would suck. Actually it probably wouldn't even matter unless publishers only release their games into their subscriptions, as long as you can purchase separately it's literally not even a problem. 

 

But I don't want to put words in your mouth so what exactly is your argument or thoughts regarding Games Pass? I'll admit, they got me hook line and sinker saying it's the best value in gaming, and as it stands even if I couldn't get it for free, I'd pay the $9.99 or I guess $14.99 a month for ultimate because the value is definitely there for me. 

 

My argument is that:

 

1) Games Pass hasn’t led to greater sales of Microsoft’s games on their consoles since this year started, and that trend is likely to stay for the foreseeable future.  Due to the growing subscription install base.

 

2) Your idea that Games Pass increased Outer Wilds’ sales on other platforms isn’t substantiated.  For all we know, as major retail release, it could have sold even better if it wasn’t.  The game also isn’t an example that's relevant to most of the AAA industry, who would never premiere a game like it on GP.

 

You brought up the topics of the perceived value, and success, of GamesPass itself.  I’ve instead tried to remain on topic, to how it has/hasn’t helped certain games in their sales. That's exactly what I was responding to - this is an NPD thread after all.

As for your doll comment: Show me the strawman that belittled your fun with a subscription service and we'll call it even.
 

I also don’t fear a multi-subscription future - I've got a good handle on my wallet.  But I will keep saying that it’s coming sooner than we think.  And we shouldn’t be propping up Outer Worlds as a statistic to say GP is helping physical/digital sales thrive.

[crispy4000]

10 hours ago, ManUtdRedDevils said:

Phil Spencer: Gears 5 sold well for us. It sold better than Gears 4.

 

I'd want to understand how those numbers all add up then.  It doesn't correlate with the tracking data we know.

Gears 5 charted quite a bit worse than 4 numerically in NPDs (7th vs 3rd), and didn't make top 20 this month.  Gears 4's digital sales also weren't tracked by NPDs when it released.  Plus you have qualifiers like this from analysts with an eye on private data:
 

Maybe it sold considerably better in non-US(/UK) territories?  Steam sales came in much better than expected? 

We're missing that X factor that makes Phil's math work.

[crispy4000]

Or it's just not true...
 

Quote

Phil Spencer: Gears 5 sold well for us. It sold better than Gears 4.



https://www.resetera.com/threads/phil-spencer-gears-5-sold-better-than-gears-4.153353/page-2#post-26507321

 

... says the NPD leaker.

Did a bit more digging to get this discussion back on topic.

 

He seems to think GP did cannibalize some sales, but that its still a huge success in the market regardless of how the SKUs are split.

[Dodger]

It still says “Xbox is still selling strong”. MS will take some sales hits to move GP subs. What we really need info on is just how many people are using GP and the revenue from it.