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Rumor: Intel has no chance in servers and they know it


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Why does SemiAccurate say that Intel knows? We have seen their internal documents that show exactly how frightened the company is. The documents go into specifics we don’t feel are appropriate to discuss publicly but there is one thing we can say, Intel knows their position. One of the documents says in no uncertain terms that the company understands they will not be competitive in the server market until AFTER Sapphire Rapids, the 2022 server part. AMD has a clear run in Intel’s core market for at least 4 years.

 

Intel has two choices after AMD launches Rome, three if you consider now illegal market manipulations. We will discount those. Those choices are drop prices or cede marketshare. Intel can’t drop prices, their ~3x price increase from Broadwell-EP to Purley is the only reason their financials are so solid. The ~$7000 price gain from Purley to Cascade, coupled with a steep rise in the percentage of MSRP that Tier-1 customers pay, says Intel knows they can’t touch margins.

 

So they have to cede marketshare. How much? They know and it makes the 15-20% number that CEO Brian Krzanich was said to have mentioned look small. OEMs that SemiAccurate regularly talk to are already jockeying for capacity for AMD’s Rome and that is only the start of the game. You can figure out the magnitude of Intel’s share loss if you know where to look, it is a big number.

 

https://semiaccurate.com/2018/08/07/intel-has-no-chance-in-servers-and-they-know-it/

 

I always find articles like this amusing because we really have no idea how AMD and Intel will end up executing. However, it does seem like the perfect storm working against Intel right now and playing in AMD's favor. I just think it will be much more difficult than the author assumes for Intel to have 'no chance' against AMD. My bet is Intel comes out swinging really hard after 2020.

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I've heard the Intel is doomed story too many times to buy it until it actually happens. I don't believe they'll fall that far behind in the server market any more than they're falling that far behind in desktop and laptop chips.

 

I feel like they're doomed eventually thanks to their complete failures in mobile and in graphics. Increasingly we'll see those two things eat everything (including laptops and the server market), but they've got a few good years left before that materializes.

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On 8/7/2018 at 3:46 PM, Massdriver said:

https://semiaccurate.com/2018/08/07/intel-has-no-chance-in-servers-and-they-know-it/

 

I always find articles like this amusing because we really have no idea how AMD and Intel will end up executing. However, it does seem like the perfect storm working against Intel right now and playing in AMD's favor. I just think it will be much more difficult than the author assumes for Intel to have 'no chance' against AMD. My bet is Intel comes out swinging really hard after 2020.

 

They are usually full of shit.  Semi-accurate has been saying Intel would be bankrupt by 2015 for example.

 

Just morons talking on the internet.  Sort of like the WCCFTECH comment section.

 

Whatever.  

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