Chairslinger

On that 538 mini-series about gerrymandering a while back a retired Republican had a folksy phrase to describe the mistake Republicans made with their 2010 gerrymandering haul: pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered. At the time he was talking about the GOP being so greedy they made it more likely the courts would step in. Now that that appears unlikely I think it fits as well in the sense that the GOP took it so far that they made it a partisan issue. Used to be that the parties were both about as guilty putting their finger on the scale. But the GOP were so blatant about it that they convinced a lot of Democrats this is a moral issue. Put simply, we no longer think, "I hope we win that state so we can benefit from gerrymandering." We're thinking we wanna win there so we can stop gerrymandering.

Right now it just feels like a real shitty night for the Senate. To be a little numb to just how creamed we're getting in the Senate. Especially with the elation of winning the House. But every one of these close Senate seats we lose makes it that much harder of having any hope of taking back the Senate in 2020.

Taking a step back, I recommend everyone taking a few deep breaths and appreciate what just happened. I could list a dozen caveats to what I am about to say. Areas where things are still dire and liberals are playing catchup. But we should all just appreciate what we just avoided. If the Republicans had kept the House and Senate with a clear message that after all the corruption, vile behavior, and disregard for voters that Trump and the GOP has spewed over the past two years they would have came away with one message. We can do whatever the fuck we want with absolutely no consequences. And what they would have felt empowered to do at that point I find almost unimaginable. Whatever comes next, we avoided that.

Now it's time to start worrying if Dems are digging themselves a hole so deep they don't have a chance in 2020, either.

Fuck any of the pessimism from earlier, I have been waiting two years to post this gif......

Interesting hypothetical. With the Senate well in hand and the midterms behind them Sessions will be gone. The only question is how fast Trump will move on that bitch. Then well see what Trump can do to throw a wrench in Mueller's investigation. The funny thing is that we may go from the most laughably partisan hackish investigation(the Nunes led House) to the only valid remaining investigation(the Dem controlled House). I have heard many out forward doubts that Trump would move on Mueller, especially with a Dem House making any attempt to completely scuttle things impossible. But I think he will do what he can, because if he can make it look like it's a partisan hitjob by the Dem House, he feels like that's a winning move for him.

There is a little tangible benefit to running up the score in the House, like obviously a cushion for votes from defectors and giving Dems a percieved "mandate" to provide a check on Trump. But mostly I am just glad for every extra digit we can shove in his fat face when he tries to make excuses for why he just got his ass kicked.

When 538 dipped to 50/50 I had a fucking 'Nam flashback.

I think the question should be why not. People shouldn't have to prove they have the freedom to do or have x....the state should have to give a damn good justification for why each restriction upon personal freedom is absolutely necessary.

Agreed. I always thought Dems were wringing their hands too much over Kavanaugh "costing them a chance at the Senate".

The Pod Save guys have, rightfully imho, been raging about how this year is likely to be a rough repeat of 2010. And undoubtedly the narrative will be about Dems splitting the fight, or maybe even blowing it. Despite the fact that when Obama lost the House and kept the Senate it was a "shellacking". No way to get around it. Pick whatever metaphor you want. Republicans are better at working the refs. The squeaky wheel gets the grease. Republicans attack the press constantly, so they feel they have to give credence to their ridiculous claims lest they validate charges of bias.

538 is talking way too much about Dems "closing window" to take the Senate. I think that ship has sailed, guys.

Only if he agrees to double tap me in the back of the head.

I am there with you, man. It can be disappointing that no strong rebuke for the endless string of horribleness from Trump is coming. It fucking sucks. But, it's important to keep your eye on the prize. If Trump has shown us anything, it's that when you boil it down what's important is who wins, and who loses. If the Dems can't take the House....I really don't know what I am going to do. But if they win just enough to give Pelosi the gavel....it will be disappointing, and disheartening, but the important thing is we will have a substantive, tangible check on Trump's power. It may not be all we wanted....but it's what matters.

I remember hearing that Dems had a solid 17 or so seats that were very likely to flip. Their strong chances were based on a meaty two dozen others races where it was close, but figure out of all those races the Dems could at least scratch out 7 to take the House. What's worrisome is that it comes down to pretty much what happened in 2016, "Everything has to go just so for Trump to win" Unlikely for Republicans to win all the 1-3% races they need to keep the House, but possible if things fall just so....

Not a good sign. I think there were 3 or 4 Dem senators seen as more vulnerable than Donnelly.

Nate literally just changed the "aggressiveness" setting on his poll to prevent us all from Heaven's Gating ourselves.

McGrath is looking good.

Down goes Comstock

In '16 in stumbled into the thread around 7 or 8 like, "Hey bros....how much we up by?!?! High five! Wait...what?!?" Tonight I have been glued to the screen since 2pm and am like, "We got Guam!!! Fuck yeah!"

If(and that's a big if) Mueller is going to release his report without pressing the issue of an interview at all, that is likely horrible news for Trump. It means either they have him dead to rights, or the evidence against Trump is waaaaay weaker than it sure looks from the outside. Remember, Team Trump seemed to genuinely consider a written Q&A as a compromise. We assumed Mueller hasn't agreed to that because he is ready for fight over compelling an in person interview. If Mueller didn't want the Q&A...well, like I said. It would seem either he has him dead to rights with other evidence, or the evidence was so weak as to not even pursue answers.

It had never really occurred to me that Alaska was only 22 years old when I was born :mindblown:

It is still crazy to me how relatively little attention was paid to Manafort flipping. The election was coming up, Mueller went silent, and everyone just kind of forgot that, by all appearances, Mueller got his Sammy Gravano.