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Recent war game suggests that attempted Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2026 would result in "Pyrrhic" US/Taiwan/Japan victory


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18 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

The second shooting starts for reals we will 100% be operation paperclip-ping anyone remotely experienced in chip manufacturing 

 

I wouldn't be surprised if we had their manufacturing lines loaded onto ships the day before. 

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Speaking to dynamics beyond ‘the numbers’, I’d also bet against the Chinese here because I don’t see the Taiwanese ever being willing to surrender or be pacified by them.

 

Being conquered by the mainlanders is basically a version of the end-times for Taiwanese people.  Even if the Capitol were taken, the whole population would be in armed rebellion indefinitely until the mainlanders decide it’s just not worth the trouble.  It would be like the CCP’s Afghanistan or Vietnam.

 

Historically, for one polity to ‘win’ a war of conquest against another it has to break its opponent psychologically, not just resource-wise.  I don’t see that ever happening to the Taiwanese in a war for political survival against the mainland.  Surrender to the mainland and death are pretty much the same for them.

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2 hours ago, Signifyin(g)Monkey said:

Speaking to dynamics beyond ‘the numbers’, I’d also bet against the Chinese here because I don’t see the Taiwanese ever being willing to surrender or be pacified by them.

 

Being conquered by the mainlanders is basically a version of the end-times for Taiwanese people.  Even if the Capitol were taken, the whole population would be in armed rebellion indefinitely until the mainlanders decide it’s just not worth the trouble.  It would be like the CCP’s Afghanistan or Vietnam.

 

Historically, for one polity to ‘win’ a war of conquest against another it has to break its opponent psychologically, not just resource-wise.  I don’t see that ever happening to the Taiwanese in a war for political survival against the mainland.  Surrender to the mainland and death are pretty much the same for them.

 

Naw man. This isn't a foreign country to China it's a territory of China. If they take it by force they aren't ever gonna leave. They will just secret police their way to supressing any dissent. If they have to they will deport people that live there to the main land and bring in new residents. 

 

Yes they want Taiwan's industry and expertise but ultimately the island is a piece of Chinese territory they don't control. They want to control every bit of Chinese territory. Though I do doubt they will ask for Vladivostok back.

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