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New Scotland independence referendum proposed for 19 October 2023

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Scottish first minister tells MSPs she won’t allow ‘Scottish democracy to be a prisoner of Boris Johnson’




Sturgeon says she wants to hold second independence referendum on 19 October 2023


Sturgeon says she will set out what the Scottish government will do if the UK government does not grant a section 30 order.


She says the referendum must be lawful. And that must be a matter of fact, not a matter of opinion, she says.


She says the Scottish government is publishing today its Scottish independence refernedum bill.


She says there are three key provisions in the bill.


First, its purpose is “to ascertain the views of the people of Scotland on whether or not Scotland should be an independent country”.


Second, the question should be the same as in 2014, “Should Scotland be an independent country?”


And, third, she says the referendum should be in the second half of this parliament.


She says the Scottish goverment wants it to be held on 19 October 2023.



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Hmm, I wonder what the chances are. Typically independence movements peter out over time...but that's usually because the larger part of the country (e.g. Canada with Quebec) takes motions to keep the smaller group happy, and then newer generations don't want to leave. That is clearly not happening in the UK, however, lol.

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How’s this for an American centric opinion: I do hope it fails. A successful independence push in Scotland will embolden those in this country to push for similar measures (despite the dissimilarity of every surrounding fact) which will lead to untold suffering because of the nature of what would be these newly independent states

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I feel strange how much my opinion on this flipped. At first I was against it last time but seeing how the UK and Brexit has gone I'm all for them leaving if it's in their best interest (i'm kind of expecting Nortern Irland to leave in the future as well).

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From what I recall the primary argument for the stay position was that there was no guarantee that a newly independent Scotland would be automatically let back into the EU, that they could find themselves spending years reapplying for membership. So I don't see why it wouldn't work this time given that Brexit has mooted that argument and now Scotland couldn't possibly do worse in that regard by risking going it on their own. Hell, maybe this time they'd even be likelier to get fast tracked back in to rub it in to what's left of Britain. 

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There's absolutely zero chance that BoJo will grant the "Section 30 order" which would temporarily transfer the powers to hold a referendum to Holyrood (the Scottish Parliament).  As such, the Scottish government will then refer the matter to the UK Supreme Court:




If it decides that the Referendum Bill is not outside the Scottish Parliament’s powers, Ms Sturgeon would be able to press ahead with a campaign and hold a vote on her timetable as planned.


Given that the legality of the vote would be beyond doubt, pro-Union parties would be compelled to participate in the same way they did in 2014.


However, if the Supreme Court strikes the Bill down, the Scottish Government would have to scrap its plans for a referendum next year.



From what I've read, the Scottish government is well aware that they're unlikely to get a favorable opinion from the UK Supreme Court so they're going to use this issue in the next general election scheduled in 2024 as a "de facto" referendum on independence.


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