The government dramatically *under*estimated job growth this summer

[SaysWho?]

The government dramatically underestimated job growth this summer - The Washington Post

WWW.WASHINGTONPOST.COM

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Initial reports underestimated job growth by a cumulative 626,000 over four months, feeding a narrative of economic stagnation that was debunked as additional data was released.

 

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In the most recent four months with revisions, June through September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported it underestimated job growth by a cumulative 626,000 jobs — that’s the largest underestimate of any other comparable period, going back to 1979. If those revisions were themselves a jobs report, they’d be an absolute blockbuster.

 

In an average month before the pandemic, estimates would be revised by a little over 30,000 jobs, or just 0.02 percent of all the jobs in the United States.

 

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“We’re just improving the estimate using everything we know up through the month we’re releasing, really,” Clinton said. “I mean, it sounds counterintuitive to most people because revisions — they think, ‘Oh, they got it wrong the first time.’ But no, we got it right, based on what the sample told us. But going forward we receive more sample, some corrected records, and recalculate seasonal factors, which together may indicate a different story.”

 

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The revisions have recast the narrative of a summer slowdown. In August, when economists expected a strong follow-up to the 943,000 jobs the economy added in July, the BLS announced the U.S. added only 235,000 jobs. Headlines dubbed it a “colossal miss” as job growth took a “giant step back.” Two months later, revisions based on additional data showed August jobs grew by 483,000, more than double the anemic original reading. It was the biggest positive revision in almost four decades.

 

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When it was reported the economy added just 194,000 jobs in September, headlines called it “ugly,” “dismal” and “disappointing.” A month later, a revision showed the economy had actually added 312,000 jobs in September.

 

After the revisions, disappointing months like August looked a lot more like October, a month that was hailed as a labor market rebound. In hindsight, while a blockbuster June and July were even better than they looked, they didn’t lead to months of stagnation — they diminished somewhat, but still produced solid, steady growth that continued through October.

 

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

That's...quite something!

[Kal-El814]

Jobs. Jobs? Jobs.

[Jason]

Just now, Kal-El814 said:

Jobs. Jobs? Jobs.

 

[Mr.Vic20]

Maybe they could have hired more samplers and therefore have prevented an easy political football from getting kicked through their own goal? Bonus, they would have added more jobs!