SaysWho?
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Posts posted by SaysWho?
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1 minute ago, CastlevaniaNut18 said:
A few pages back. He went too far. Wade was over it. Good riddance. I think the post he actually made got removed.
Just saw the post. Who in the world was he talking about?
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Just now, CastlevaniaNut18 said:
It merged and Lucian got his walking papers.
Whoa where did this happen
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Guys and one gal, I hope we have a better night tonight. I love posting with y'all and we've been through enough.
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2 minutes ago, marioandsonic said:
Aren't at least some of the important swing states like Florida supposed to be decided tonight?
Of course, but there's no point in reading constant updates today. Save the updates for the actual election night.
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Also, for any of you anxious about the election, don't bother looking at updates. Since I know who you voted for or are going to vote for, today's vote is going to be disproportionately Republican, so you're just gonna make yourself sick reading results each hour. Dems banked a lot of votes, Republicans are coming out as expected, and party reg =/= party vote necessarily (depends on the election!).
I'm mostly avoiding social media today once I leave work and getting a nice nap in prior to tonight, probably joining many of you at 8 or 9.
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3 minutes ago, mrbiggsly said:
Where's the needle?
Only some state needles this time (FL/GA/NC if I recall).
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3 minutes ago, marioandsonic said:
Thought I'd be smart and go to the polling place an hour before work to get it over with. Turns out there was already a huge line when I got here. Stood in line for 15 minutes, in which time the line barely budged.
The place is less than 5 minutes from my house, so I'll try and come back at lunchtime...
You got this. Let us know when you return!
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Assuming Biden wins, as seems likely, Trump's limp response to COVID and George Floyd were both events that permanently changed the nature of the race. Nothing else had a significant difference besides possibly the first presidential debate, to which we saw Biden get some of his best numbers all season.
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Obviously some states had bigger errors than others, and there are fewer undecideds. This is hypothetical.
Also so a good reminder on Twitter: 89% of a Biden win doesn't mean 89% of a Biden landslide, but landslide scenarios are part of that 89%. 1 and 10 chance for Trump, while bad, is a non-zero chance, so if you have any friends/family who you think need an extra friendly push, do it!
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Okay, so I did it for all except the last part.... mostly just because I wanted some pics to show, I guess?
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7 minutes ago, mclumber1 said:
I LIKE this thread. Good job!
One suggestion though: Put each of your election sections into spoilers so the page loads a bit quicker, and people who have already read your information can quickly scroll past it.
Good idea. Lemme get on that.
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So just so y'all know, I did see the comments about which thread would be the election night thread and replied to them:
"I think it'll be easier to keep up with a separate one. I honestly don't mind creating one, even if it's kind of a makeshift one (in the process of moving and this week is CRAZY)."
I think it'd be fun to go back to that thread and the state/congressional races thread. I just feel like having an umbrella Election Night thread (and not just election news) would be easy to follow.
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I'd like to start with something optimistic. If you get a text from a volunteer, let them know what they're doing is great. They need the relief too.
They're nervous too but they're doing their best!
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I am making a new thread specifically for Election Night.
PRESIDENTIAL:
SpoilerRepublican Nominee:
Donald Trump - US President
Democrats who are running:
Joe Biden - Former Vice President of the United States
What 270 shows is the consensus:
http://www.270towin.com//images/brand/270ToWinLogo-iOS.jpg Consensus Forecast Electoral Map
WWW.270TOWIN.COMThe consensus ratings of a number of different forecasts.How it looks on 538:
House composition:
SpoilerDemocrats: 233
Republicans: 197
Libertarians: 1
To get a majority, you need 218 seats.
Dark blue/red are open Democratic and Republican seats. The light colors are seats against incumbents. Gray means a special election still need to take place.
Senate composition:
SpoilerDemocrats: 45
Republicans: 53
A majority needs either 51, or 50 plus the vice president. For Democrats to win the majority, they either need 50 seats total and the presidency, or 51 seats if Trump wins reelection. Republicans are defending 23 seats, while the Democrats are defending 12. Democrats have more room to expand their seats, which is the opposite of 2018 when they played mostly defense and had fewer pickup opportunities.
Dark red means the incumbent is retiring. Dark blue means the Democrat is. Light colors represent races against incumbents. The rectangle in Georgia represents a special election as both Republicans are defending their seats. Perdue is defending his after winning in 2014, while the special election is a seat that was vacated in 2019 by former Senator Isakson.
Here are some of the races getting national attention (challenger vs incumbent):
SpoilerAlabama: Former Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville wins his primary against former Alabama Senator and US Attorney General Jeff Sessions. He'll face Democrat Doug Jones in a race that Jones is an underdog despite being an incumbent. In fact, he's the only Democratic incumbent who is currently an underdog in 2020.
vs Arizona: Gun control activist and former astronaut Mark Kelly is running unopposed in his primary and is the likely nominee to face Republican incumbent Martha McSally. Mark Kelly has led McSally by large margins as of this post (7/16).
vs Colorado: Former Democratic governor John Hickenlooper wins his primary and faces Republican incumbent Cory Gardner.
vs Georgia (general election): Along with a special election for the other Senate seat, Georgia is holding an election for this one as well. Jon Ossoff, an investigative journalist and media executive, is the Democratic nominee to face Republican Senator David Perdue (first cousin to former Georgia governor and Democrat-turned-Republican Sonny Perdue). Ossoff campaigned and lost in an unusually expensive and extremely competitive and close special election for a Georgia House seat in 2017. Despite being a safe seat for Republicans in recent history (it was in Republican hands, many times unopposed, since at least 2000, and easily voted Republican in 2016), the New York Times reported that in that race, Ossoff drove the strongest Democratic turnout in an off-year election in at least a decade. Side note: although Ossoff lost the race to Republican Karen Handel, Democrat Lucy McBath was able to defeat her in 2018.
vs Georgia Special Election: This election is to serve the remaining time of former Senator Isakson, who stepped down due to health issues. The top two vote-getters, assuming the likely event that nobody wins a majority of the vote, will go to a runoff. Democrat Raphael Warnock will nearly 100% be the Democrat who goes to the runoff. The two Republicans running are Representative Collins and current Senator Kelly Loeffler, who is mired in controversy involving insider trading.
vsvsIowa: Farmer and businesswoman Theresa Greenfield won her primary to face incumbent Republican Senator Joni Ernst.
vs Kentucky: Former marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath won a competitive Democratic primary race to face Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. Mitch McConnell's last competitive election was in 2008, a heavily Democratic year.
vs Maine: Democrat and Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon wins her primary to challenge incumbent Senator Susan Collins. Susan Collins' approval ratings have been hurt after her vote to confirm Justice Brett Kavanaugh, which is resulting in polls showing a tossup despite easily winning every election for Senate except for her first one in 1996.
vs Montana: Current Democratic governor and former Montana Attorney General Steve Bullock easily won his primary. He faces incumbent Senator Steve Daines in the battle for Steven Supremacy.
vs North Carolina: Current Republican Senator Thom Tillis beat former Democratic Senator Kay Hagan in a close race in 2014, a big Republican year. He's a vulnerable incumbent in a state that is still Republican-leaning nationally but has been more competitive since 2008, plus has a Democratic governor who won in 2016. He faces Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham, a former member of the North Carolina State Senate and lieutenant colonel in the U.S. Army Reserve.
vs South Carolina: Former Chair of the South Carolina Democratic Party, Jaime Harrison, faced on primary opposition. He wants to unseat Republican incumbent Lindsey Graham. He's raised $20 million, not much less than Graham's $22 million. Harrison is casting Graham as an out-of-touch Washington insider who has ignored South Carolina's problems and instead played politics for years.
vs Texas: Democrat MJ Hegar wins her primary to run against Republican Senator John Cornyn
vs STATE COMPOSITION OF GOVORNERS AND STATE LEGISLATURES:
SpoilerThis is the current composition of each state's governor, legislature, House representatives and Senators.
Gubernatorial Races:
Democrats currently control 24 governors' mansions to Republicans' 26. Unlike 2018, only a handful of gubernatorial elections are being held this year, 4 for Democrats and 7 for Republicans.
SpoilerLegislative elections:
This is the current composition of party power in the states. Blue means Democrats control the governor's mansion and the state legislation. Red means Republicans control all three. Gold(?) means divided government. And gray means the unicameral legislature is non-partisan (in theory).
This is the map with just trifectas:
And this is how it looked prior to the 2018 elections:
And 2016:
In 2016, Democrats broke up Republican control of North Carolina and Nevada. Republicans took full control of New Hampshire, Missouri, Iowa, and Kentucky.
In 2017, Democrats took control of Washington State and New Jersey's government and significantly increased their clout in Virginia's legislature.
In 2018, Democrats gained total party control in Maine, Nevada, New York, New Mexico, Colorado, and Illinois. They broke Republican trifectas in Kansas, Michigan, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin.
In 2019, Democrats broke Republicans' trifecta in Kentucky and took full control over all levels of Virginia's state government.
State races are even more important this year as we have the census. All state and House seats will be redistricted.
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Nice rundown of the election from Silver. This is very matter-of-fact, no disaster porn or anything. If you're feeling anxious, it won't make you anxious, I think.
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Joe Biden beats Donald Trump, officially making Trump a one-term twice impeached, twice popular-vote losing president
in The Political Re-Education Camp
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Wow.
Good riddance.