SaysWho?

Very curious how much he wins by.

2001 gubernatorial race:

2008 Senate Race:

2014 Senate Race:

In 2014, he was polling so far ahead but ended up winning by less than a point. In all honestly, I feel 2014 was a precursor to 2016 -- Republican underestimated, polling off in some states for the same reason it was in 2016, mostly in Appalachia and the upper midwest.

Whereas we haven't seen these issues since 2017.

1 hour ago, marioandsonic said:

Are we going to create an election thread, or is this it?

1 hour ago, Emperor Diocletian II said:

 

This might as well be it!

I think it'll be easier to keep up with a separate one. I honestly don't mind creating one, even if it's kind of a makeshift one (in the process of moving and this week is CRAZY).

12 minutes ago, Joe said:

 

I like the Economist guys and it's awesome having an alternative voice, but it's definitely interesting how they went from being quite obsessed with attacking 538 in the last few weeks to kind of quiet on this front recently. Almost like they're worried about something.

I admittedly didn't look at them much, if at all. Perhaps I should incorporate them next time. I mostly followed 538, NYT Upshot, RCP, WaPo and a bunch of people associated or having past associations with them. And Ralston for Nevada.

That's the thing: I get talked down to a lot when I dismantle their silly conspiracy theories or try to show them where their anger could be directed (ex: a former friend of mine was all angry the NFL did nothing to celebrate first responders in early September but unfriended me after I told her she should be made at Trump, who was being accused by FDNY of stealing money from that fund, and Giuliani, who lied about the air quality there which has led to so many of them suffering). First she laughs that I must have meant to reply to someone else. Then it's "please.... GO AWAY"

She used to be my barber 20 years ago. Eventually I realized she was an idiot. Sucks, but the beat goes on. It'd be nice if I weren't talked down to. THEN maybe I'd consider contemplating the notion of considering voting Republican.

So this is 2020:

As a comparison, this was 2016:

We have CNN on in the newsroom and the Fauci story comes up frequently as well as what the candidates are doing. With the Cabinet, that's a second term purge which is not as concerning as FBI/Fauci to me (which he doesn't have the authority to fire in the latter's case).

Every time I see a tweet that says, "The media isn't talking about ," I'm always blasted by CNN or NPR or WaPo on those issues.

2 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

 

Good news

Just about to post this. Very happy to see.

31 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

In this scenario Florida should go to Biden, but I left it for Trump since I have no faith in Florida People.

31 minutes ago, Jason said:

Brah, Clinton could have won Florida and she still would have lost the election.

It's so hard to separate what I want to happen versus what I think is likelier to happen, especially because of the outside chance that Montana and Indiana are much closer than many expect (Indiana still with a good lead for Trump, Montana tightening for Biden in October), and also because Iowa and Ohio are much harder wins than Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, or Michigan.

What I'd love to see:

http://www.270towin.com//images/brand/270ToWinLogo-iOS.jpg 2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map

WWW.270TOWIN.COM

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Create your own forecast for the 2020 presidential election

What a few points in another direction might end up giving us that will make me happy but not as thrilled:

http://www.270towin.com//images/brand/270ToWinLogo-iOS.jpg 2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map

WWW.270TOWIN.COM

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Create your own forecast for the 2020 presidential election

A mix of hopes and expectations:

http://www.270towin.com//images/brand/270ToWinLogo-iOS.jpg 2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map

WWW.270TOWIN.COM

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Create your own forecast for the 2020 presidential election

More non-voters getting out to vote Biden

'It's too important now': Record turnout, Black voters fuel Democratic hopes in Georgia

WWW.NBCNEWS.COM

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An influx of newly registered voters, most of them Black, could make Joe Biden the first Democratic presidential nominee to carry the state since 1992.

Quote

Norman Williams hadn’t voted in 52 years.

 

But the 75-year-old retired Atlanta resident cast his first ballot since 1968 earlier this month for Joe Biden for one simple reason: His intense desire to see President Donald Trump kicked out of office.

 

“It’s everything about him. He’s a narcissist, he’s a liar, he’s a racist, he’s proven he doesn’t know what he’s doing,” Williams said.

 

“I had not thought about voting for years, because I always felt my one vote wasn’t going to mean nothing,” he added. “But it’s too important now to not do it.”

 

Williams is part of a fast-growing coalition of voters fueling a potentially major shift in the surprise 2020 battleground. Like him, they are freshly engaged in the political process, highly motivated and showing up in record-shattering numbers to vote early. Like him, most of these new voters are Black.

lol

Again, this isn't an, "I told you!" because the votes haven't all been counted. I'm not gonna demean anyone for being skeptical of Texas; I just think there's plenty of reason to believe it'll be close, and that a Biden win would be a shock to the nation but not necessarily a shocking outcome, if that makes sense.

While we were walking on the beach a few weekends ago, the lady and I saw etched into the sand, "Settle for Biden 2020." That's her slogan this year.

Media's doing a very good job prepping people for how Election Day actually works, when votes are certified, and how long it typically takes states to count the votes.

Just now, Reputator said:

 

Again, I said I think it's the most realistic expectation. Yeah it could happen, and if it happens, it's an orgy party for Democrats. But not happening is sort of the "default" expectation.

 

Also I'm not sure about AZ either, it's in a similar position to FL.

AZ is a different beast from Florida. Past two elections, Dems were underestimated in AZ and overestimated in FL. Could be the same again, but AZ was not like the Rust Belt or else we'd be talking about McSally beating Sinema. Plus the diversity of the Hispanic vote is different in FL than AZ.

5 minutes ago, Joe said:

 

Are there going to be anymore polls released today?

He clarifies more. Again, I didn't watch the segment, but I'm pretty sure he probably talked in-depth about the uncertainties.

3 minutes ago, Reputator said:

 

I think this seems like the most realistic expectation. I don't think FL is flipping, and I think we all know TX is a pipe dream this election.

It's not anymore than Indiana and Virginia and North Carolina were pipe dreams for Dems in 08 or Michigan and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were pipe dreams for Reps.

Competitive, but not impossible states. Republicans wouldn't push to throw out 100k ballots if they thought it was a pipe dream. There are always states that are considered fool's gold until they're not.

I'm not saying expect Biden to win. But it's going to be close in Texas. Maybe it's 3 - 4 points close, but it'll be close.

1 minute ago, Joe said:

 

Are there going to be anymore polls released today?

Yes, though I think their point is they won't make a huge difference in the state totals.

Honestly, I don't think it matters anymore. I'll definitely post polls as I see them, but we have a pretty good idea of where the states stand.

I didn't see the segment, but this is Dave Wasserman's electoral prediction:

Technically 320 since NH wasn't colored yet, but he has Nebraska's 2nd district going for Biden, Arizona and Georgia flipping, and interestingly, OH and FL going red but not being the decider in the election, which is one of many possibilities.