SaysWho?

So just so y'all know, I did see the comments about which thread would be the election night thread and replied to them: "I think it'll be easier to keep up with a separate one. I honestly don't mind creating one, even if it's kind of a makeshift one (in the process of moving and this week is CRAZY)." I think it'd be fun to go back to that thread and the state/congressional races thread. I just feel like having an umbrella Election Night thread (and not just election news) would be easy to follow.

I'd like to start with something optimistic. If you get a text from a volunteer, let them know what they're doing is great. They need the relief too. They're nervous too but they're doing their best!

I am making a new thread specifically for Election Night. PRESIDENTIAL: House composition: Senate composition: Here are some of the races getting national attention (challenger vs incumbent): STATE COMPOSITION OF GOVORNERS AND STATE LEGISLATURES: Gubernatorial Races: Democrats currently control 24 governors' mansions to Republicans' 26. Unlike 2018, only a handful of gubernatorial elections are being held this year, 4 for Democrats and 7 for Republicans. Legislative elections: This is the current composition of party power in the states. Blue means Democrats control the governor's mansion and the state legislation. Red means Republicans control all three. Gold(?) means divided government. And gray means the unicameral legislature is non-partisan (in theory). This is the map with just trifectas: And this is how it looked prior to the 2018 elections: And 2016: In 2016, Democrats broke up Republican control of North Carolina and Nevada. Republicans took full control of New Hampshire, Missouri, Iowa, and Kentucky. In 2017, Democrats took control of Washington State and New Jersey's government and significantly increased their clout in Virginia's legislature. In 2018, Democrats gained total party control in Maine, Nevada, New York, New Mexico, Colorado, and Illinois. They broke Republican trifectas in Kansas, Michigan, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin. In 2019, Democrats broke Republicans' trifecta in Kentucky and took full control over all levels of Virginia's state government. State races are even more important this year as we have the census. All state and House seats will be redistricted.

Nice rundown of the election from Silver. This is very matter-of-fact, no disaster porn or anything. If you're feeling anxious, it won't make you anxious, I think.

Good. Bring it home @Massdriver @sblfilms

Very curious how much he wins by. 2001 gubernatorial race: 2008 Senate Race: 2014 Senate Race: In 2014, he was polling so far ahead but ended up winning by less than a point. In all honestly, I feel 2014 was a precursor to 2016 -- Republican underestimated, polling off in some states for the same reason it was in 2016, mostly in Appalachia and the upper midwest. Whereas we haven't seen these issues since 2017.

I think it'll be easier to keep up with a separate one. I honestly don't mind creating one, even if it's kind of a makeshift one (in the process of moving and this week is CRAZY).

I admittedly didn't look at them much, if at all. Perhaps I should incorporate them next time. I mostly followed 538, NYT Upshot, RCP, WaPo and a bunch of people associated or having past associations with them. And Ralston for Nevada.

That's the thing: I get talked down to a lot when I dismantle their silly conspiracy theories or try to show them where their anger could be directed (ex: a former friend of mine was all angry the NFL did nothing to celebrate first responders in early September but unfriended me after I told her she should be made at Trump, who was being accused by FDNY of stealing money from that fund, and Giuliani, who lied about the air quality there which has led to so many of them suffering). First she laughs that I must have meant to reply to someone else. Then it's "please.... GO AWAY" She used to be my barber 20 years ago. Eventually I realized she was an idiot. Sucks, but the beat goes on. It'd be nice if I weren't talked down to. THEN maybe I'd consider contemplating the notion of considering voting Republican.

So this is 2020: As a comparison, this was 2016:

We have CNN on in the newsroom and the Fauci story comes up frequently as well as what the candidates are doing. With the Cabinet, that's a second term purge which is not as concerning as FBI/Fauci to me (which he doesn't have the authority to fire in the latter's case).

Every time I see a tweet that says, "The media isn't talking about ," I'm always blasted by CNN or NPR or WaPo on those issues.

Just about to post this. Very happy to see.

Brah, Clinton could have won Florida and she still would have lost the election.

It's so hard to separate what I want to happen versus what I think is likelier to happen, especially because of the outside chance that Montana and Indiana are much closer than many expect (Indiana still with a good lead for Trump, Montana tightening for Biden in October), and also because Iowa and Ohio are much harder wins than Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, or Michigan. What I'd love to see: http://www.270towin.com//images/brand/270ToWinLogo-iOS.jpg 2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map WWW.270TOWIN.COM Create your own forecast for the 2020 presidential election What a few points in another direction might end up giving us that will make me happy but not as thrilled: http://www.270towin.com//images/brand/270ToWinLogo-iOS.jpg 2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map WWW.270TOWIN.COM Create your own forecast for the 2020 presidential election A mix of hopes and expectations: http://www.270towin.com//images/brand/270ToWinLogo-iOS.jpg 2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map WWW.270TOWIN.COM Create your own forecast for the 2020 presidential election

More non-voters getting out to vote Biden 'It's too important now': Record turnout, Black voters fuel Democratic hopes in Georgia WWW.NBCNEWS.COM An influx of newly registered voters, most of them Black, could make Joe Biden the first Democratic presidential nominee to carry the state since 1992.

lol

Again, this isn't an, "I told you!" because the votes haven't all been counted. I'm not gonna demean anyone for being skeptical of Texas; I just think there's plenty of reason to believe it'll be close, and that a Biden win would be a shock to the nation but not necessarily a shocking outcome, if that makes sense.

While we were walking on the beach a few weekends ago, the lady and I saw etched into the sand, "Settle for Biden 2020." That's her slogan this year.