Chollowa

I'm worried that the shutdowns will hurt Biden in Clark/Washoe. I do think one of the takeaways is that Trumpism is here to stay and it is the GOP right now. The number of minority GOP voters I think will continue increase and that could mean that the demographic shift that the Dems were counting on, may not be a sure thing.

Reporter on the ground for ABC was bearish on Biden's chances there. Says that there are probably only 130k votes outstanding in Fulton and DeKalb counties. NYT still has it pointing towards Biden, but who the fuck knows at this point.

At some point they put it at 98% reported, but that was an error and they moved it back down to 86%. At 98% a 100k lead would have been insurmountable for Trump, but 14% is doable. I hear it would take a 60-40 split to catch up and pass for Trump.

I'm not stoked about the Arizona reporting error.

AZ + NV + GA + just one of WI, MI or PA gets Biden there, right?

He's down by damn near 700k votes in PA right now. I probably just have no grasp on the numbers, but that seems like it is a problem.

When so much of Trump's policy has been achieved through Executive Order, I feel like you have to take a White House victory if you can get it.

It's up to 68% now. I know I shouldn't be looking at the needle, because it giveth and it could very well taketh away, but wtf happened?

NYT just updated their GA prediction from 75% Trump to 63% Biden.

At some point does the lead Trump is running up in the Midwest States get too big to overcome, even with the mail ins? He's up by like 500k votes in PA. He has similarly large (100k+) leads in WI and MI.

Is the walk-up in heavily D cities breaking for Trump? That's the question, right?

In our defense, right now FL might be a 5-6 point miss, NC another decent miss (538). If that shit carries over to the the Rust Belt, it's gonna get late, early.

What's going on with Michigan?

Maybe Biden should have put a wig on Julian Castro and picked him for VP?

I think they were referring to Miami Dade.

Yeah, I was just hoping it would be easy this time around.

I saw that too, but there's so much crosstalk in the comments on what that means, it was difficult for me to figure out if it was good or bad in terms of Biden winning Florida.

I don't know about AZ, NC or PA but I'll just keep the faith for now that Biden wins those States.

I came out of my experience feeling about the same as you regarding PA. My biggest concern is first time voters emboldened by Trump to vote when in previous years they had no interest in voting at all.

Based on the phone banking that you did over the weekend, what is your feeling about how PA/MN will go?

It's really tough to have sympathy for the party that has taken to calling their opposition "Demoncrat," "Demonrats", etc. I understand they're just taking their marching orders from right-wing media and that the hosts of those programs sometimes use the same language (Mark Levin, Michael Savage), but it's hard to find common ground when they consistently dehumanize any opposition. I say this as someone that was a registered Republican as recently as a 5 years ago.

I had a rough start to my phone banking shift today and that really worried me given that I was talking to Pennsylvanians. However, by the end I ended up speaking with more people that hadn't voted and were voting for Biden than people that professed to be voting for Trump. I will note that we were told during orientation that we would mostly talking to friendlies, so it's possible that I was speaking to a bunch of Democrats that have turned Trump Republicans in the last 4 years, but I really have no way of knowing that. So overall, on the scale of "how worried I am" I'd put myself at about a 7 or 8.

Brandon - "I hate Biden, he's a child molester." Me: "Okay, you have a nice day. The next guy said he's voting straight Democratic. So that was a nice chaser.

Did you ask if they received a ballot? Don: "I don't like either of the candidates, but I'll look at their resumes." I will say that the last 45 minutes or so, I've gotten many more Democrat/Biden voters than Trump voters, so that's giving me some hope. Also, this is fun. Thanks for recommending this @Emperor Diocletian II

Looks like I went to the wrong damn zoom call.