Dayton Active Shooter

[Joe]

On 8/7/2019 at 8:35 PM, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

Brown would probably be the nominee tbh. Liberal, Midwestern, white dude. Problem is, his Senate seat would go R and it would be for nothing.

 

So in your world we are losing 2020 (which means the Senate gap widens), but a single Senate seat somehow matters? What am I missing here?

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

19 minutes ago, Jose said:

 

So in your world we are losing 2020 (which means the Senate gap widens), but a single Senate seat somehow matters? What am I missing here?

If brown won his successor would be appointed by Republican Governor Mike DeWine. Winning the chamber is a very tall order already given the Senate map now and counting on Brown in his current seat. So that would require a net win of 5 formerly Republican seats before Brown would resign in order to maintain control of the Senate going from 51-49 with brown to 50-50 without brown (with the VP to break ties, and assuming Manchin or some other 'moderate' falls into line). Less than 5 Senate pickups puts you back at square 1 with brown as pres. But if brown stays in the Senate, you only need 4 pickups to get the chamber 50-50 (and still not pass anything looking like progressive legislation) and that 5th (all else being equal) buys you wiggle room 

[Joe]

I guess I misinterpreted your "would be for nothing" comment to mean that he would lose against Trump anyway.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

I mean Trump's gonna win anyway so...