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Inflation slows noticeably in October, CPI report shows annual U.S. inflation rate cooling more than forecast to 7.7%


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From @JustinWolfers, professor at University of Michigan.

 

Core CPI rose by 0.3% in October, which is 0.2 points below expectations, and down from 0.6% last month. It's now running at 6.3% over the year down from 6.6%.

 

This is a very encouraging inflation report. There's a good chance that inflation has peaked, and is now turning down.

 

Headline inflation also yields good news: Up only 0.4% in October, a rise that's 0.2% below consensus.

 

Inflation over the past year has been 7.7%, down from a rate of 8.2%. last month and a peak of 8.9% in June.

 

Again, it looks like inflation has peaked and is now falling.

 

Within core inflation, we're seeing roughly similar rates of inflation in the goods sector (5.1% over the year) as the service sector (6.7%).

 

But over more recent months goods inflation has pretty much stopped: -0.4% in October, 0% in September, and 0.5% and 0.2% in prior months.

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