Honestly, if it weren’t for Covid, I’d say Trump had this in the bag, but with Covid, the crash, and everything else, plus the majority of people’s severe hatred of Trump, I think Biden will win.
2018’s wave showed me that when people are motivated, they’ll come out. The issue is that people NEED to stay motivated now that QAnon quacks are winning primaries and the President and Vice President pretty much endorsed the movement.