North Carolina's new Congressional map still sucks but will undo some of the gerrymandering

[SaysWho?]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/north-carolinas-new-house-map-hands-democrats-two-seats-but-it-still-leans-republican/

 

 

 

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But many Democrats still aren’t satisfied with North Carolina’s new map. In pressing the legal case against it, National Democratic Redistricting Committee chair Eric Holder complained that the redrawn map “simply replaces one partisan gerrymander with a new one.” And he has a point — the new map does still give an advantage to Republicans, albeit a smaller one than the old map. Under the old lines, the median district by partisan lean was 10 points more Republican-leaning than the state as a whole.3 And under the new lines, the median district is 7 points more Republican-leaning than the state as a whole.

If you’re a fan of a roughly proportional map — a.k.a., one where the share of seats a party wins is aligned with its statewide vote share — that’s a problem, as is the fact that the map is virtually unresponsive to changes in the national mood. To see this in action, just compare the share of congressional seats Republicans would win under different national popular vote scenarios in North Carolina to Pennsylvania, which got a new court-ordered congressional map in 2018. In that case, the Democratic-controlled Pennsylvania Supreme Court appeared to go out of its way to create competitive districts that would ensure the makeup of the state’s congressional delegation changed with the political winds. North Carolina’s map appears less responsive.

 

 

The kicker:

 

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But in North Carolina, partisan lean implies that Republicans would win eight out of the 13 new districts in a Republican wave year (R+10) … and in a neutral political environment … and in a Democratic wave year (D+9). In fact, Democrats would have to win the national popular vote for U.S. House by 13 percentage points to win a majority of North Carolina’s U.S. House seats (again, assuming the results tracked exactly with partisan lean).

Plaintiffs could have appealed the case to the North Carolina Supreme Court in hopes of getting a more competitive map, but they declined to do so on Monday, citing the fact that candidate filing is already underway. And of course the maps will be redrawn in North Carolina — and everywhere else — starting in 2021, so both sides will have another crack at drawing the map soon.

 

Not a great map, and not the answer, but an improvement and an example of why contributing to a movement is better than one individual running for office (aka: Stacey Abram's activism is more important than her running for office).

[osxmatt]

 

[Jason]

19 minutes ago, osxmatt said:

 

 

"If I can't cheat then I'm quitting!"

[Massdriver]

55 minutes ago, SaysWho? said:

Not a great map, and not the answer, but an improvement and an example of why contributing to a movement is better than one individual running for office (aka: Stacey Abram's activism is more important than her running for office).

Maybe Beto will do the same in Texas.