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US believes Russia may have test version of anti-satellite nuclear weapon in low orbit, the use of which would render LEO unusable


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New info has emerged from U.S. officials about Russia’s nuclear anti-satellite weapon and a test satellite that may be associated with it.

 

The testbed version would likely not contain a warhead, but is intended to make sure the weapon would remain stable and usable. 

 

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A senior U.S. government official has indicated that Russia already has some kind of clandestine testbed in space as part of its development of a nuclear-armed on-orbit anti-satellite weapon. This comes just days after another official warned Congress that this "indiscriminate" weapon, details about which first emerged publicly earlier this year, could be capable of rendering low Earth orbit completely unusable for a prolonged period of time.

 

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"The United States is extremely concerned that Russia may be considering the incorporation of nuclear weapons into its counterspace programs based on information we deem credible," Stewart said. "The United States has been aware of Russia's pursuit of this sort of capability dating back years, but only recently have we been able to make a more precise assessment of their progress."

 

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"Russia has publicly claimed that their satellite is for scientific purposes," Stewart said "However, the orbit is in a region not used by any other spacecraft. That in itself was somewhat unusual. And the orbit is a region of higher radiation than normal, lower earth orbits, but not high enough of a radiation environment to allow accelerated testing of electronics as Russia has described the purpose to be."

 

The use of the weapon could destroy all existing LEO satellites, and then render LEO unusable for at least a year for new satellites due to "nuclear pumping" of Earth's radiation belts:

 

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Concerningly, Plumb indicated that LEO could feasibly be rendered unusable for a year if Russia's new weapon was detonated in space.

 

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Here, Plumb referred to the impact of 'nuclear pumping' in the aforementioned Van Allen Belts — high energy radiation particles that form two belts that surround the Earth like donuts. Nuclear pumping refers to a phenomenon where nuclear radiation lingers in the LEO environment.

The effects of this were demonstrated during the U.S. Starfish Prime nuclear test in 1962, which "pumped" the LEO region with radiation, taking down numerous satellites.

 

Theoretically this could also result in a Kessler Syndrome, where dead satellites collide and the resulting debris field renders LEO completely unusable for generations. That is far less likely. But even rendering all existing satellites dead would be a global shock.

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It's this. 

 

 

From Pavel Podvig's twitter thread:

 

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How exactly [the satellite] is linked to some nuclear weapons in space is unclear. The good news is that, in Stewart's words "this is not an active capability that has already been deployed." So, no nuclear weapons in space yet. Good to know. But Cosmos-2553 deserves a closer look.

 

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