b_m_b_m_b_m Posted June 3, 2022 Share Posted June 3, 2022 Bloomberg - Are you a robot? WWW.BLOOMBERG.COM Quote Nonfarm payrolls increased 390,000 last month after a revised 436,000 gain in April, a Labor Department report showed Friday. The unemployment rate held at 3.6%, and the labor force participation rate crept higher. More in the link Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted June 3, 2022 Share Posted June 3, 2022 Lagging indicator Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted June 3, 2022 Share Posted June 3, 2022 Economy is bustling from so many indications, and the rate hikes have been good for my savings and led to better apy for us, so I feel like I’m living in the best of both worlds at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted June 7, 2022 Share Posted June 7, 2022 About that "recession memo"... Fed GDP tracker shows the economy could be on the brink of a recession WWW.CNBC.COM The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker is now pointing to an annualized gain of just 0.9% for the second quarter. Quote A widely followed Federal Reserve gauge is indicating that the U.S. economy could be headed for a second consecutive quarter of negative growth, meeting a rule-of-thumb definition for a recession. In an update posted Tuesday, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker is now pointing to an annualized gain of just 0.9% for the second quarter. Following a 1.5% drop in the first three months of the year, the indicator is showing the economy doesn’t have much further to go before it slides into what many consider a recession. GDPNow follows economic data in real time and uses it to project the way the economy is heading. Tuesday’s data, combined with other recent releases, resulted in the model downgrading what had been an estimate of 1.3% growth as of June 1 to the new outlook for a 0.9% gain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted June 7, 2022 Share Posted June 7, 2022 1 hour ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said: About that "recession memo"... Fed GDP tracker shows the economy could be on the brink of a recession WWW.CNBC.COM The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker is now pointing to an annualized gain of just 0.9% for the second quarter. Quote “Right now, it looks like any talk of a recession is a 2023 story. It’s not this year,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at consulting firm RSM. “We would need to see future shocks to the business cycle. My sense is the economy is going to slow, but only really back to its long-term trend growth rate of 1.8%.” To be sure, while the notion of two consecutive negative GDP quarters is often considered a recession, that’s not necessarily true. The National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of recessions, says that rule of thumb often holds true but not always. For instance, the recession of 2020 saw just one quarter of negative growth. A lot of caveats in that story. It likely depends on if the Fed can tackle inflation without slowing the economy too much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted June 7, 2022 Share Posted June 7, 2022 17 minutes ago, SaysWho? said: A lot of caveats in that story. It likely depends on if the Fed can tackle inflation without slowing the economy too much. Which is the economic equivalent of the camel passing through the eye of the needle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted June 7, 2022 Share Posted June 7, 2022 9 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said: Which is the economic equivalent of the camel passing through the eye of the needle. Maybe. Certainly the efforts to combat inflation in the 80s led to a recession, but inflation was also way worse at that point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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