CayceG

Additionally, it sounds like there is at least some consultation about talks between Ze and Putin. Maybe Israel could be the neutral ground (and finally be good for something).

Real Stalingrad-ass shit here.

And likewise, I think Russia's main objective with all this was more in line with my early predictions rather than reinforcement/retaking of the entirety of the Donbas. I think the plan was always going to be to demilitarize Ukraine and oust Ze. That's what these pushes show.

I truly think NATO should extend a membership offer to Ukraine now if they could work out some deal for Zelensky to not invoke Article 5 immediately. Again, wildly unrealistic. But it's what my heart wants. At the protest I attended, most people were calling for actions from kicking Russia out of SWIFT to instituting a NATO No Fly Zone over Ukraine.

I think Russia has an undeclared blockade of the Ukrainian coast. That's why these strikes on merchant shipping is happening.

It was too cold here to wear my vyshyvanka.

I won't be contributing much in this thread for now (or really much in the future, depending). I just don't know where things are headed or where they'll wind up. I think it might be folly to link what's happening here with unrelated things. I just don't know.

This is a file photo from a couple years ago of a Ukrainian Air Force graduate. Comments Bot COMMENTS.BOT

There was a solidarity rally here in Nashville. I decided to go to it. I had no idea that there were so many Ukrainians in town, but there are. And they showed up.

Obolon is the neighborhood where a very good friend of mine lives. He and his family have a flat there. Dear god, I hope they left.

In the words of President Merkin Muffley in Doctor Strangelove, Putin "went a little funny in the head. You know. Just a little funny. And he... went and did a silly thing."

Basically, we'll have to wait a few hours for daylight before wreckage can be seen. I just don't want to believe Ukraine has lost the skies over Kyiv yet.

I don't think this is unlikely. I would put better odds on it being a Russian plane shot down by a Ukrainian SAM simply because I don't think any Russian equipment is in range of Kyiv yet. I'll need to see some wreckage though.

Not yet ready. The satellite photos of airfield strikes today and on the ground photos of ballistic missile strikes show me two things. 1. Russia's ballistic missiles (Iskander types, short and medium range) are not really that accurate and have a larger risk of collateral damage. 2. The cruise missiles, which are newer by about a decade, are far more accurate. However they pack a smaller warhead. Things will be very bad for collateral damage once Russia decides it doesn't need to hit smaller, fixed targets anymore and instead wants to go for maximum destruction.

The big ball of fire just might have been a Russian plane being shot down. Dare I say.... The Ghost strikes again?

I said this elsewhere. But the only thing I'm more uncertain and afraid of than "what happens if someone kills Putin" is "what comes after Putin?"

Yeah, that was an interception of some kind. There are still active Ukrainian air defenses. I bet it came from SAMs rather than.... The Ghost. I think this could have been an interception of a ballistic missile. Sunrise isn't too far off, so we shall see.

The Ghost of Kyiv is my fucking muse. All power to this man/woman. Protect them with everything.

Fuck YES. And to add to that, it looks like the Russian missile strikes on the airfields aren't really all that effective:

One word. Grozny.

Ukrainian sources are saying that their fighter bombers were able to launch strikes on the Russian air assault unit to help beat them back. We actually have a photo of this: Anywho. Other reports (rumors, really) are that a Ukrainian fighter was able to down Russian fighters. I do not know how true that is. But that photo of a Ukrainian Su-24 operating unhindered against the air assault unit means Russia absolutely did NOT have air superiority over Kyiv.

It's precisely what I thought it would be.