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Everything posted by SaysWho?
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This is said every election whether they win or lose that election, ever since 2006 at least (which is when I cast my first vote). We know that Democrats have a realistic shot since Trump remains unpopular in March of 2019, but that Trump has a realistic shot because he's an incumbent, has a more consolidated base and could be more popular next year. That's all we know.
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At the same time, I think part of the reason the repeal failed is because the ACA shifted the conversation, and Republicans had to basically run on the ACA without actually being for it. They could just oppose anything the Democrats did in 2009/2010. Now, they have to answer to voters, as they did in the town halls in 2017, which dominated the conversation. The floor has been that a new bill has to keep pre-existing conditions protections, Medicaid expansion, etc. whereas the floor before was doing nothing.
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You know, you got me thinking about forecasting and snow now. Since it snowed in Georgia when I worked there years ago, lemme tell you about one instance about how we made our forecast and maybe this will help explain what goes into forecasting and how errors can be made: All right, so this was middle of the night, our chief meteorologist and I were getting our forecast ready for when the morning show was going to start. So we looked at the current temps, which were in the 20s. Then we looked at a bunch of models, and there are tons that compute all this stuff and then put in their estimates hour by hour. One of the ones we use a lot had something like 35 at 3am, 34 at 5am, etc. etc. So we looked at that and said, "Okay, it's already off by over 10 degrees, so let's just throw that out," and we used the other ones instead. Then, we had to take into account that the ground was blanketed in snow. All models showed highs at around 36, above freezing, but snow makes it very hard for the ground to warm and also reflects more heat from the sunlight. Add in the fact that it was cloudy, and the correct assumption was that the models were failing to take into account all of this. The high ended up being in the 20s despite all models going way warmer than that. If you took all the other variables into consideration, your forecast would have said that, but if not, your forecast was likely off.
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The reason I'm hesitant on it, knowing that this isn't a movie theater poster, is that Lando isn't on it and Kylo Ren has his mask on again. I know there could be a reason for it after he destroyed it last movie, but I feel like this took old pictures of the guys and put them on, but left out Lando because they don't have him in the previous movies to stitch onto this. But who knows. I just want my teaser trailer.
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K, I ask because a lot of times, temperatures on a 7-Day are going to be geared toward the city the station is in. There could be big swings in other areas depending on geography. I don't know how they give the forecasts, but usually, many will try to make it as specific as possible through each town when forecasting rain chances, snow accumulation and temperature differences. Some forecasts are going to be a bust since this is predicting the future at the end of the day, and sometimes every model is way off (not often, but it happens) so you have to be really impressive making adjustments to correct them, but if everything is wrong, you might just be watching a bad station lol.