Commissar SFLUFAN

Someone is intercepting them over Syria and Jordan, so it's entirely possible that's the case.

Iranian state media is reporting that the first wave of ballistic missiles has been launched.

We're about 5 minutes from the first wave entering Israeli airspace I believe.

There is some indication that the primary targets for the attack will be Israeli military positions on the Golan Heights which would be considered "occupied territory" and therefore not actually Israel itself.

Israeli media is reporting that RAF fighters from the UK base on Cyprus are also participating in the interception operations.

From ABC News:

I'd say that he's probably goddamned ecstatic right about now.

Based on the range involved, these are military drones similar to the Shahed ones that the Russians have been using in Ukraine.

The IRGC has named this operation "True Promise".

Fighter-based interceptions of the drones appears to have started over Jordan and Syria.

Two sets of drones have been identified - one set was heard over eastern Jordan, the other seen south of Baghdad. https://israelpalestine.liveuamap.com/ Jordanian security sources have told Reuters that they're ready to shoot down the drones if possible.

The USS Carney just transited the Suez Canal into the Med yesterday so it's well in position to support intercepts like it did during its deployment in the Red Sea.

The IRGC is confirming that missiles have been launched as well as drones.

Israel's Channel 12 is reporting that the Iranians have also launched cruise missiles.

Iranian Telegram channels claim that the Houthis have also launched drones towards Israel.

The Eisenhower CSG either has entered or is moving towards the Red Sea.

Iranian state media has just confirmed the attack.

The drones on their own are an annoyance - the real concern would be if their objective is to overwhelm air defenses in order to facilitate ballistic missiles which would be timed to impact at the same time the drones arrive so those launches would occur much later.

The Iranians have already signaled that the targets will be Israeli military/intelligence facilities which is why Tehran believes that the attack is calibrated to mitigate the risk of significant escalation by Tel Aviv. However, as you correctly stated, the escalatory "wild card" in this is the Israeli government.

Also, it's absolutely true that nothing ever happens... ...until it does

That course of action will be largely dependent on what Tel Aviv does. While that could very well be the case, what will the Israelis do in return? How do they calibrate their retaliatory action?

"I worked on fly farm. I was a shitter."

Soooo...my advice to everyone is to fill up your gas tanks as soon as you can!

Might as well post this thread because it genuinely appears that the situation is going to come to a head in the relatively near future. Israel-Gaza live updates: Iran readies 100 cruise missiles for possible Israel strike, US says - ABC News ABCNEWS.GO.COM Six months after Hamas terrorists invaded Israel on Oct. 7, the Israeli military continues its bombardment of the neighboring Gaza Strip. Iran warns U.S. to stay out of fight with Israel or face attack on troops (Axios) Iran signals it will limit response to Israel attack to avoid escalation (Axios)