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US economy meets "technical" definition of recession as GDP shrinks by 0.9% in second quarter


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The U.S. economy contracted for the second straight quarter from April to June, hitting a widely accepted rule of thumb for a recession, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday.

 

Gross domestic product fell 0.9% at an annualized pace for the period, according to the advance estimate. That follows a 1.6% decline in the first quarter and was worse than the Dow Jones estimate for a gain of 0.3%.

 

Officially, the National Bureau of Economic Research declares recessions and expansions, and likely won’t make a judgment on the period in question for months if not longer.

 

But a second straight negative GDP reading meets a long-held basic view of recession, despite the unusual circumstances of the decline and regardless of what the NBER decides. GDP is the broadest measure of the economy and encompasses the total level of goods and services produced during the period.

 

“We’re not in recession, but it’s clear the economy’s growth is slowing,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “The economy is close to stall speed, moving forward but barely.”

 

The decline came from a broad swath of factors, including decreases in inventories, residential and nonresidential investment, and government spending at the federal, state and local levels.

 

 

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  • Commissar SFLUFAN changed the title to US economy meets "technical" definition of recession as GDP shrinks by 0.9% in second quarter
19 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

The overall market reaction is essentially a ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

The consensus estimate was 0.3% expansion so a 0.9% contraction doesn't seem to move the needle all that much either.


There are also some non typical things going on in the economy that makes this different from many of our recent recessions, and those things are already priced in, so the slight recession doesn’t make the markets particularly nervous.

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