b_m_b_m_b_m

8 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

"Justice Department launches investigation into Minneapolis policing practices"

Justice Department launches investigation into Minneapolis policing practices

WWW.NBCNEWS.COM

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The announcement comes a day after Derek Chauvin was convicted on all three counts in the death of George Floyd last year.

 

I read somewhere that minneapolis and Chicago are in a league of their own when it comes to shootings of Black, Asian, and Latino people when compared to the population of these groups in their respective cities

33 minutes ago, Kal-El814 said:

I didn’t Venmo because I was too busy finally clearing 120 shrines on BotW Master Mode. Next time I’ll have Link jump off cash mountain and not Death Mountain.

 

Also how the fuck do you dunces not know how to Venmo, it’s like a text message that robs you / pays you. Christ.

Wife does the money thing and I've been with her for 15 years so that's her world

this is the only thing that truly explains why cops would testify against cops

Just now, Joe said:

 

That's a VERY different quote and I get his point! What Reagan did to this country is just fucking unbelievable.

The point I guess I'm failing at making is that he wasn't a progressive, he was just a liberal republican who got left behind by the rightward swing of the republican party. 

1 hour ago, sblfilms said:

I'm also amused you were the only person to send a venmo request

 

SHOULDA HAD MOXIE LIKE @outsidaGUYS

I thought about requesting $0.69 and then immediately sending it back but like I said, I don't know how venmo

11 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

Seriously?

I was misremembering the exact quote but

Obama says he'd be seen as moderate Republican in 1980s

THEHILL.COM

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Obama said he thinks few people believe he wants to impose socialism on the country.

and from the passages I've read from his book what he showed himself to be wasn't a front, this is who he was, a moderate republican in another age

5 minutes ago, Air_Delivery said:

One of the reasons why there should be age limits for elected positions other than cognitive decline is that well to do old people are in many ways segregated from modern society. 

Honestly, term limits are good when they're not comically short. I'm talking 25 years in the house and 30 in the senate just so there's at least some churn. That means now that the ~30 representatives and ~5 senators who be replaced as of now.

58 minutes ago, Air_Delivery said:

What I mean is would Obama have been more progressive after everything that happened during/after his president?

Obama claims to have been a republican at heart so....no, probably not. But he also wouldn't have the benefit of watching an obama administration fail so who knows. I'm guessing no. 

14 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

Not that it would stop him from trying, but POTUS can’t pardon state crimes  

I can make a halfway decent case for incorporating the power of the pardon to the states by the 14th amendment. And it's dumb enough that someone might try it some day!

I'm genuinely shocked

1 minute ago, Joe said:

Are we this bored?

Yes

Just now, Joe said:

 

This is going to look like a very silly discussion when the third data points confirms the trend in 2 weeks lol.

 

And homie isn't about to put a full disclaimer on every tweet. Come on now!

The trend isn't there in the overall population, and the second data point is for a subgroup which we still might not know the margin for error by the third data point. 

And if he doesn't qualify his statements maybe he should tweet less

You can't rule out it is statistical noise because the data is not there. You don't know the margin for the subgroup. That anyone can make a statement explaining differences in the data without the complete data is bad if your brand is data

And again, the margin does not apply to the category sum but to each individual answer. So "very likely" is 24 +/- >3.3%, "somewhat likely" is 22 +/- >3.3% and so on

Just now, Joe said:

This is a good post about what we are talking about. You're saying that the overlapping region pictured here is enough to dismiss the difference, but it's not. Also should be noted that the overlap you are talking about is even smaller than this picture.

 

 

Why Overlapping Confidence Intervals mean Nothing about Statistical Significance | by Prasanna Parasurama | Towards Data Science

TOWARDSDATASCIENCE.COM

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“The confidence intervals of the two groups overlap, hence the difference is not statistically significant” — A lot of People

 

Quote

The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for

results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of sampling error takes into account the

design effect, which was 1.19. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on

sub-samples. 

Again, 3.3% is for the full population, and the subgroup of "adults with children under 18" has a higher margin, as stated in the poll itself. Drawing a conclusion based on two data point with this information is fucking stupid, and Mr polls should know this stuff.

Two points don't make a trend lmao

And the subgroup "adults with children under 18" has a greater margin of error than the 3.3% for the total sample population of "all adults" and is not published in the poll.

Quote

The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for

results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of sampling error takes into account the

design effect, which was 1.19. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on

sub-samples. 

Actually I take that back, 3.3% is for the whole population of adults. The subgroup for the question regarding children under 18 is a smaller group than "all adults" so the margin is larger for this subgroup. Whoops!

25 minutes ago, Joe said:

 

Also, the overlap you are talking about here is on the absolute edge of both polls. You are really stretching to try to dunk on Nate, mi amigo.

The amount of overlap is irrelevant when trying to determine the true value, they overlap, meaning sampling variability could cause this difference. And yes, that is true even with the same pollster.

Anyway, the +/-3.3% is for each subcategory. So very likely is 24% +/-3.3% and somewhat likely is 22 +/-3.3%. so really it looks like not very likely might have ticked up a bit and everything else is pretty much the same. This poll is good to see trends over time in opinion, and this change between the new poll and the one from earlier this month could just be noise, there's not enough data to say that opinion has shifted due to the pause. 

6 minutes ago, Joe said:

What?

Overlapping margin of error means the results are not that different actually. And only one data point does not a trend make.

"The polls aren't wrong" guy trying to draw conclusions within the margin of error