CayceG

Obolon is the neighborhood where a very good friend of mine lives. He and his family have a flat there. Dear god, I hope they left.

In the words of President Merkin Muffley in Doctor Strangelove, Putin "went a little funny in the head. You know. Just a little funny. And he... went and did a silly thing."

Basically, we'll have to wait a few hours for daylight before wreckage can be seen. I just don't want to believe Ukraine has lost the skies over Kyiv yet.

I don't think this is unlikely. I would put better odds on it being a Russian plane shot down by a Ukrainian SAM simply because I don't think any Russian equipment is in range of Kyiv yet. I'll need to see some wreckage though.

Not yet ready. The satellite photos of airfield strikes today and on the ground photos of ballistic missile strikes show me two things. 1. Russia's ballistic missiles (Iskander types, short and medium range) are not really that accurate and have a larger risk of collateral damage. 2. The cruise missiles, which are newer by about a decade, are far more accurate. However they pack a smaller warhead. Things will be very bad for collateral damage once Russia decides it doesn't need to hit smaller, fixed targets anymore and instead wants to go for maximum destruction.

The big ball of fire just might have been a Russian plane being shot down. Dare I say.... The Ghost strikes again?

I said this elsewhere. But the only thing I'm more uncertain and afraid of than "what happens if someone kills Putin" is "what comes after Putin?"

Yeah, that was an interception of some kind. There are still active Ukrainian air defenses. I bet it came from SAMs rather than.... The Ghost. I think this could have been an interception of a ballistic missile. Sunrise isn't too far off, so we shall see.

The Ghost of Kyiv is my fucking muse. All power to this man/woman. Protect them with everything.

Fuck YES. And to add to that, it looks like the Russian missile strikes on the airfields aren't really all that effective:

One word. Grozny.

Ukrainian sources are saying that their fighter bombers were able to launch strikes on the Russian air assault unit to help beat them back. We actually have a photo of this: Anywho. Other reports (rumors, really) are that a Ukrainian fighter was able to down Russian fighters. I do not know how true that is. But that photo of a Ukrainian Su-24 operating unhindered against the air assault unit means Russia absolutely did NOT have air superiority over Kyiv.

It's precisely what I thought it would be.

I don't care if this is fake, unconfirmed, or not. I'm sharing it because it might be the raddest thing of the day.

Get their asses.

What you're feeling is sympathy. I felt it in 06, and 14. It wasn't until I went there that I even began to understand.

Two tweets. First is Russian airborne troops landing at the airfield. Second is from early evening, this shot appears to show a Ukrainian fighter-bomber (Su-24 type, which I speculate that Russia isn't using those here) dropping bombs on positions at the airport.

Chernobyl is in between Belarus and Kyiv. It's the most direct route. It isn't that they want it for any reason other than it's in the way and they need to move the Ukrainian forces out of it.

The NATO alliance's mutual defense pact is the deterrence that keeps Russia out of the other countries in Europe.

As I predicted.

Let's all feel better by watching this Ukrainian granny shout right into a Russian soldier's face:

I'm generally deferential to Ze, but this one's a bit much on the rhetoric.

Reports of "explosions" could just be MLRS as the rockets are fired--into Ukraine, no doubt.