SaysWho?

The next recession is likely to happen within the next two or three years. Many of you have already pointed it out.

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With the unemployment rate at 3.8% – close to a record low — it might seem an odd time to worry about a recession. But tight labor markets actually precede recessions, and in some ways contribute to their occurrence, as this chart of the unemployment rate, with recessions shaded in gray, demonstrates:



There’s nothing wrong with a low unemployment rate. But as workers grow scarce, wages rise, which means companies need to charge more for products and services, which generates more inflation. The Federal Reserve responds by raising interest rates, to prevent inflation from getting too high. Higher rates, in turn, depress investment and spending, stress some borrowers and cause some loan defaults. This pattern, in itself, doesn’t necessarily cause a recession. But toss in external factors such as an energy shock, an asset bubble or bad government policy and the economy can easily contract for half a year or more, which is the traditional definition of a recession.

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Scott Minerd, chairman of Guggenheim Investments, told Yahoo Finance recently that excessive amounts of corporate debt—now at the highest levels ever, as a percentage of GDP–could induce the next downturn, as borrowers struggle to repay what they owe and some go bust. Others think a big swing in energy prices—either up, or down—could tip the economy over, either because soaring prices will disrupt business and household budgets, or plunging prices will wreck the US energy sector, which is bigger than it used to be. President Trump’s protectionist policies could stress the economy at the wrong time. One outlier theory is that a “retail apocalypse” involving bankruptcies, store closures and mass layoffs could become so severe that it brings down the whole economy.

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Many economists think tax cuts and spending hikes enacted by Congress during the last six months could end up being just the sort of policy mistake that does more economic harm than good. Those stimulus measures will boost growth this year, and perhaps next year as well. But by late 2019 or early 2020, the tax-cut stimulus may have worn off, with government spending due to fall from temporarily raised levels and federal debt swelling by more than $1 trillion per year. “We’ll have tightening monetary policy and tighter fiscal policy, and the Fed might even be behind the curve if inflation is rising faster than anticipated,” says Prakken. “That will create a significant period of vulnerability in 2020 and 2021.”

https://abcnews.go.com/Entertainment/roseanne-spinoff-connors-premier-fall-abc/story?id=56075443

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On Thursday, the network announced that much of the cast of "Roseanne," including John Goodman, Laurie Metcalf, Sara Gilbert, Lecy Goranson and Michael Fishman, are set to reprise their iconic roles in the new show, currently named "The Conners" as a working title.

 

Roseanne Barr will have no financial or creative involvement in the new series, according to the network.

"The Connners" will air on Tuesdays at 8 p.m.

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In a joint statement, the announced cast members of the spinoff said they have received a “tremendous amount of support” from fans.

 

“We have received a tremendous amount of support from fans of our show, and it’s clear that these characters not only have a place in our hearts, but in the hearts and homes of our audience,” the statement read. “We all came back last season because we wanted to tell stories about the challenges facing a working-class family today. We are so happy to have the opportunity to return with the cast and crew to continue to share those stories through love and laughter.”

Every second Star Wars movie made less than the previous one. And each initial Star Wars movie was an event unlike its sequels (Star Wars was the first period, Phantom Menace was the first new Star Wars movie in a decade and a half, Force Awakens was the first new one in 10 years and the first to feature the initial main cast since 1983).

Look at Batman 1989: that was an event movie. Batman Returns made more in its opening weekend but ultimately less in the long-run.

Avengers 1 made more than the second because the first was an event and the first time we saw all the heroes together. The second was just a sequel and not Infinity War levels of a sequel (and also coming off event movie Black Panther who was featured in the movie). Black Panther is going to outgross Infinity War in North America. Are you going to tell me Black Panther is more popular than the Black Panther hero and everyone else? Of course not: Black Panther was an event film domestically.

9 hours ago, Bacon said:

@NinSonsoft.... I mean @SaysWho?

I've been diligent. 

I remember a couple times that we had a few trolls years ago, but I don't think it was overwhelming, and for the past year I didn't think we attracted enough activity to be a board.

Totally love chatting wrestling with y'all, but I think it should be a thread. I'm 100% for less is more this time around.

Jason really does have a bad, unoriginal name.  

http://comicbook.com/movies/2018/06/20/fox-accepts-disney-increased-bid/

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The term "accepted" may be misinterpreted in this scenario. This doesn't mean that Fox is now selling to Disney for $71.3 billion and everything is a done deal. All this means is that the company is officially recognizing Disney's bid as the single best offer on the table. If a better offer isn't made, this will be the deal that moves forward. Comcast still has an opportunity to return with an even higher bid.

10 minutes ago, ort said:

I thought it would be one of them, I wasn't sure, but the way they made her look, like a half asleep stoner or something was just weird.

 

I mean, I actually thought that they wanted us to think it was one of them to throw us off, and was disappointed when that wasn't the case.

That made me less suspicious of her for some reason, like her brother looked too "squeaky clean" and was intentionally setting the heroes up. But being her instead of him wasn't a huge shocker considering where the suspicions looked to point. 

It's actually kind of weird that it ended up being a plot twist since the suspicions weren't subtle. Incredibles 1's villain, if you didn't catch the voice during that one Syndrome scene, was a pretty cool reveal. I didn't really buy the "make everyone super" motive too much since it didn't really seem that bad to me and not as important as "giant robot is kicking ass in the city," but the motivation to turn evil and go after supers in general was pretty well-realized.

Just now, ort said:

Seriously, who didn't see the bad guy coming from the very second she appeared on the screen. I figured it was so obvious that they were just playing with us, but nope.

 

I also didn't like the plane showdown. Are we really supposed to believe that depriving elastigirls oxygen for a minute would render her useless? And the evil sister lady was simply making the plane go up to avoid her? Uh, she can stretch, just stretch out and punch her. I didn't like that segment at all.

I thought it was the guy, tbh (revenge for not saving his dad or something like that, and he'd know exactly where Elasticgirl is), but I was in the ballpark.

It was more of a crowd-pleaser than the first and a lot of fun, but it's not on the level of the first. Still, if you're not super tight on money, I'd recommend watching it in theaters; just know that there's not really the same kind of subtext that the first one had. 

However, that short before the movie was FUCKING FANTASTIC. It's one of my favorite Pixar shorts.

https://www.actionnewsjax.com/news/local/report-woman-shoots-husband-in-testicles-after-he-tries-to-take-her-air-conditioner/770435073

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The couple were going through a divorce, the arrest report said.  

 

When the man and his brother attempted to unhook the unit, Dunn sat on it to prevent the two men from taking it, the report said.

 

When the ex-husband approached, he tried to remove her from the AC unit, but Dunn produced a pink stun gun and attempted to electrocute him, according to the arrest report.

 

Dunn was struck in the head and dropped both the pink stun gun and a handgun, the report said. 

 

Dunn reportedly got up off the ground and shot him in the testicles with the handgun. The man's brother pushed Dunn to the ground and attempted to help his brother and drove him to the hospital.

 

The report said that the ex-husband's brother screamed, "You shot my brother" and began choking her until she blacked out. 

In the Ace Attorney series, this remains up there with one of my favorite of all time. A certain plot twist-filled case can have a good ending or a bad ending. If you present bad evidence, everything goes wrong. Emotional music hits. A build-up to your failures plays in front of you. And then...

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/mideast/sara-netanyahu-wife-israeli-pm-charged-fraud-n885271

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The indictment charged that Netanyahu, along with a government employee, fraudulently obtained more than $100,000 for hundreds of meals supplied by restaurants, bypassing regulations prohibiting the practice if a cook is employed at the home.

 

She was charged with aggravated fraud and breach of trust, according to the indictment released by the Justice Ministry to the media.

 

If convicted, she could face a maximum sentence of five years behind bars, though that seemed unlikely. It was unclear when her trial would begin.

https://www.npr.org/2018/06/21/622144455/white-civil-rights-rally-approved-for-d-c-in-august?

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The park service has given initial approval to an application from Jason Kessler to hold a "white civil rights rally" on Aug. 11 and 12, as first reported by WUSA9. Kessler, along with Richard Spencer and others, organized the 2017 rally. The park service has not yet issued a permit for the event.

 

The rally in Charlottesville last year drew hundreds of white nationalists and supporters who faced off in clashes with counterprotesters. A self-described neo-Nazi drove a car into a crowd of anti-racist protesters, killing 32-year-old Heather Heyer and injuring more than a dozen others.

 

President Trump drew fierce backlash after blaming "many sides" for the violence. Protesters came out in cities across the country the day after his remarks to condemn white supremacists.

@TheLeon bringing up his classic avatar.

We had a thread like this which followed similarly to the "Rate the last movie you watched" thread. Bringing it back, yo.

I'm currently playing God of War a second time, this time on Give Me A Challenge. Excellent game overall.

I had to do a double-take looking at the post counts.

The most tragic thing:

wtf at my gf no longer exists.

Rogue One was a very fun idea for a spin-off, but I agree that some of the other ideas I saw, like Boba Fett, I wasn't really into.