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SilentWorld

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  1. 3 minutes ago, SaysWho? said:

    Polls had Hillary winning the popular vote by around 3% and she won by around 2%. They were pretty damn good. There are always some state anomalies; 2016 just happened to be one where some important states fell into that. But others, like Virginia, were just about right on. And that was despite the fact that there were a considerable number of undecideds. There weren't in 2012, and the polls nailed each states.

     

     

    For a significant amount of people (and I include myself in this group) the idea of Trump winning was absurd. I remember, prior to the election, somebody getting in a Twitter argument with Silver saying that Clinton had a 99.9% chance of winning. It wasn't the polls that made people think Trump only had a 0.1% chance of winning. The polls said he probably wouldn't win and people combined that with their absolute revulsion with Trump to conclude there was no way he could win. Then in hindsight, no one wanted to label themselves as being wrong so they'd rather say "well the polls misled me." 

    It's impossible to prove but I bet that polls wouldn't have gotten nearly as bad a rap if Romney had won in 2012 as they did when Trump won, even though as I recall in 2012 the polls were predicting an Obama win with far greater certainty. People would've seen Romney win and shrugged saying "well pollsters said he had a 10% chance of winning" (or whatever the odds were) because a Romney victory wouldn't have been as much of a mind breaking thing as a Trump victory was. 

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