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~Official 2020 Congressional and State Races Thread~


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58 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

 

Keep this in mind, and spread this word far and wide

 

Can't wait until election day and Fox and co. say something like "95% of precincts are reporting in and Trump is the clear winner...should the rest of the ballots even be handled?" even though only 20% of the vote is in.

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15 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said:

A lot of states that are loading up on mail in voting need to change their laws, NY isn't even allowed to start the mail vote count till 7 days after, and they mailed the applications to every eligible voter in the state this year.

 

I'd rather see something like:

  • Have in-person voting allowed for seven days straight, final day is election day
  • Have mail voting allowed, but final day is seven days before, and they are counted on election day
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29 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said:

A lot of states that are loading up on mail in voting need to change their laws, NY isn't even allowed to start the mail vote count till 7 days after, and they mailed the applications to every eligible voter in the state this year.

 

They can't start counting the mail-in ballots until November 10???!!!

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14 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

They can't start counting the mail-in ballots until November 10???!!!

 

This is how Trump is going to hammer down on "fraud." He's going to say that he won some states even with potentially the majority of the vote still uncounted, and then he will raise questions about "mysterious" boxes of votes being counted when he actually loses.

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Recent polls are good for Democrats in Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia. They already have leads in Maine and Colorado, which would all be good for taking the Senate with a slim majority.

 

Polls are good for Republicans in Alabama.

 

Arizona's interesting because Kelly is doing better as a Democrat there than Biden. That kind of thing would be good for him on election day because no Democrat won their Senate seat in 2016 without Hillary also winning the state, and split-ticket voters are currently rarer than 10 or 20 years ago.

 

Friendly and constant reminder: these polls are a snapshot, not a prediction.

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10 minutes ago, SaysWho? said:

Recent polls are good for Democrasts in Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia. They already have leads in Maine and Colorado, which would all be good for taking the Senate with a slim majority.

 

Polls are good for Republicans in Alabama.

 

Arizona's interesting because Kelly is doing better as a Democrat there than Biden. That kind of thing would be good for him on election day because no Democrat won their Senate seat in 2016 without Hillary also winning the state, and split-ticket voters are currently rarer than 10 or 20 years ago.

 

Friendly and constant reminder: these polls are a snapshot, not a prediction.

Well Kelly is running against someone the state already told to fuck off, and he's a God damned astronaut. So it's not that weird he's out running Biden. 

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Not when your pro trump message is "I'll do a better job for trump than the senate majority leader of his party" like he hasn't been doing trumps bidding since day 1, and is personally responsible for trumps biggest wins, that is the supreme court and packing the judiciary

 

If you make the case that Mitch has been bad for Kentucky, as he is hated across the state, you stand a better chance of winning. It would have been a complete longshot no matter who won but there are messages that would work in Kentucky, as I've been told and seen written by Kentuckians.

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Just now, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

Not when your pro trump message is "I'll do a better job for trump than the senate majority leader of his party" like he hasn't been doing trumps bidding since day 1, and is personally responsible for trumps biggest wins, that is the supreme court and packing the judiciary

 

If you make the case that Mitch has been bad for Kentucky, as he is hated across the state, you stand a better chance of winning. It would have been a complete longshot no matter who won but there are messages that would work in Kentucky, as I've been told and seen written by Kentuckians.

 

being a veteran > everything else doe, right?

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Hickenlooper will face Cory Gardner in the Colorado Senate race.

 

Here's an incumbent who lost in Colorado and was beaten by someone insane:

 

Quote

Rep. Scott Tipton ousted in Colorado GOP primary

The fifth-term congressman lost to Lauren Boebert, the owner of a restaurant where servers open-carry and who is supportive of the "QAnon" conspiracy theory.

 

Quote

The district leans Republican and has moved further to the right in the Trump era. The president won the district by 12 points in 2016; Mitt Romney won it by 6 in 2012. But it has not hosted particularly competitive House races in recent years. Tipton won in 2018 by 8 points.

 

Democrats plan to contest the seat. Diane Mitsch Bush, the 2018 nominee, easily won the Democratic primary. She had over $350,000 in the bank as of mid-June. Boebert had less than $14,000.

 

Tipton was endorsed by Trump.

 

8 points doesn't actually seem overwhelming, though that WAS a big Dem year. If 2020 is a big Dem year, this will be one to watch.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Some Susan Collins news.

 

Susan Collins signals she won't campaign against Biden - “I do not campaign against my colleagues in the Senate,” Collins told the Times.

 

Jennifer Finney Boylan, a contributing Opinion writer, is a professor of English at Barnard College, writes NYT op-ed titled, "Mainers Are ‘Disappointed,’ Too, Susan Collins"

 

Quote

In a poll released in January, 52 percent of registered voters in Maine said they disapproved of her. Fewer than half (42 percent) approved. She was the least popular senator in the country, even more loathed than Mitch McConnell. Which is saying something.

 

It wasn’t always this way. In 2015, her statewide approval rating was 78 percent — the highest of any Republican senator. That made her the nation’s second-most-popular senator among constituents; the first was Bernie Sanders.

 

Quote

And yet, at so many moments of truth over the past four years, Senator Collins has voted to enable the man whom she described as incapable of change or growth. His actions leave her concerned. And dismayed. And disappointed.
 

Then she votes to empower him.

 

In 2017, Mr. Trump ended health care subsidies to low- and middle-class Americans under the Affordable Care Act. Senator Collins’s reaction? She was “very disappointed in the president’s actions.”

 

In February, she said she was “disappointed the Senate voted against calling impeachment witnesses.” But not so disappointed that she wouldn’t vote to acquit the president a few days later.

 

She told her constituents not to worry. Her sense, post-impeachment, was that Mr. Trump has learned “a pretty big lesson.”

 

On what possible planet has Mr. Trump learned his lesson?

 

Ms. Collins later said that her comment “may not be correct” and that his behavior is — oh no, what’s this? — “problematic.” Oh well.

 

I've never seen Collins in this kind of competitive race. I followed a bunch of Congressional races as many of you did in 2008. In a year when Democrats won eight Senate seats,

 

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21 House seats by an overall popular vote margin of over 10%

 

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won the White house in a near electoral landslide and over seven points

 

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and came out of the elections with complete control of 27 state legislatures, Collins breezed to reelection in an overwhelmingly Democrat state, winning 61.3% to 38.6%.

 

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And then she won by a little under 40 points in 2014. The only close election she had in that seat was her first in 1996 when she won an open seat.

 

Another interesting note, at least to me, is how much has changed in the past 10 or 12 years in New England. New Hampshire remains competitive even when Democrats win, but when I began paying attention to all this around 06, Republicans held both Senate seats in New Hampshire and Maine, a seat in Rhode Island, and there was a former Republican-turned-independent in Vermont (though when he left the party, he caucused with Democrats). Besides the shocking win by Scott Brown in Massachusetts in 2010, it's flipped so heavily. We already saw the change on the national level, but a lot of these states seem to have a lag between national changes and state changes since state parties can still maintain their own identity outside of what the national party is doing.

 

So even though we've viewed New England as a Democratic stronghold, it took a while for the House and Senate to show that, too. If Collins loses, there are no Republican Senators in New England for at least a couple of years, which hasn't been the case in.... ever? I honestly dunno.

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