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~Official 2020 Congressional and State Races Thread~


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58 minutes ago, CastlevaniaNut18 said:

He's probably on high dose blood thinners and took a fall. Weird he's being so secretive, since he's been open about health issues in the past.

 

 

Or maybe his human suit is finally starting to rot.

 

Yeah, I've heard the blood thinners thing a lot. Old people being on blood thinners is nothing uncommon, weird that he wouldn't just come out and say it.

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WWW.WASHINGTONPOST.COM

The president offered this pessimistic assessment as he said there were some GOP senators he didn’t want to help in their reelection bids.
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“There are a couple senators I can’t really get involved in. I just can’t do it. You lose your soul if you do. I can’t help some of them. I don’t want to help some of them.”

 

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The president — in a sentiment not shared by many of his party’s top officials and strategists — said he instead thinks the Republicans “are going to take back the House.” And many strategists involved in Senate races say the party’s chances at keeping the chamber are undermined by the president’s unscripted, divisive rhetoric and his low poll numbers in key states.

 

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Initially, Republicans had broken down their map into two tiers. Their front line most vulnerable members are Sens. Susan Collins of Maine, Cory Gardner of Colorado, Martha McSally of Arizona and Thom Tillis of North Carolina. Democrats and Republicans recently cut spending in Colorado, considered a likely win for former Democratic governor John Hickenlooper.

 

The second line, which Republicans used to refer to as their “firewall,” is Sens. Joni Ernst in Iowa, David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler in Georgia, and Steve Daines in Montana.

 

But even the GOP’s “firewall” has started to crumble, with Republicans all but sure that they’ll be competing to win runoffs in Georgia in January, for example. Additionally, Republicans suddenly find themselves scrambling to save once safe seats, including top Trump ally Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (S.C.), who is being vastly outraised by Democratic opponent Jaime Harrison. Graham is still expected to win, according to South Carolina political observers.

 

 

And Jeff Sessions:

 

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“We’re going to take Alabama. We got rid of Jeff Sessions. Thank goodness. He was the worst. I would have gone for the Democrat over him. That wouldn’t have been too good,” Trump said, before shifting to his mock TV anchor voice. “The president has just endorsed a Democrat.”

 

lol

 

Still, many of these races are close enough that I wouldn't be shocked to see Republicans keep a lot of them or lose nearly all of them, depending on the mood on Election Night. Ex: if Election Night 2016 were a good night for Dems in the White House, I could see Democrats have taken an extra two seats, at least (Wisconsin/Pennsylvania) and winning the Senate. But it was not to be.

 

So we'll see.

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7 minutes ago, marioandsonic said:

So, can they not vote for her?  Or how does that work?

The entire house votes and they need a majority to win, so having more than 2 people is pointless as they just keep voting till someone gets a majority, so unless theres a revolt and she doesn't have the votes to do it shes going to be speaker again.

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21 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said:

The entire house votes and they need a majority to win, so having more than 2 people is pointless as they just keep voting till someone gets a majority, so unless theres a revolt and she doesn't have the votes to do it shes going to be speaker again.

Yeah, particularly since the revolt against her in previous years has come from her right.

 

Personally I say keep her in this last time, pass needed but not necessarily the most popular stuff with 217 votes in favor, then kick her to the curb finally when the house inevitably flips in two years. We need new blood in leadership but I also recognize that when something needs be passed she can do it.

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WWW.FOXNEWS.COM

Today, Sen. Susan Collins is not only fighting for her political life in one of the most-watched races, but she is also the last vestige of New England GOP representation in Congress from what was a heavily Republican region in a bygone era.

 

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Almost 100 years ago, the Vermont-born former Massachusetts governor Calvin Coolidge was president — and widely considered the nation’s most conservative president alongside Ronald Regan.
 

In 1936, only the states of Maine and Vermont went to Republican presidential nominee Alf Landon when Democratic President Franklin Roosevelt won a massive reelection landslide.

 

In the 1950s, a GOP political dynasty was born in Connecticut with the election of Sen. Prescott Bush.

 

Today, Maine Sen. Susan Collins is not only fighting for her political life in one of the most-watched races, but she is also is the last vestige of New England GOP representation in Congress from what was a heavily Republican region in a bygone era.

 

 

With New Hampshire being an elastic state, and Maine not being as liberal as the rest of New England, this isn't the end of Senate Republicans in New England. But I started voting in 2006, and it used to be so much more represented.

 

You has two Republicans in New Hampshire and Maine, and you have Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island. Lieberman changed to an independent and won his reelection in 2006, Olympia Snowe easily won reelection, but Sheldon Whitehouse beat Chafee. In 2008, Shaheen won the Senate seat in New Hampshire from Senator Sununu, but Susan Collins easily won reelection despite Obama winning overwhelmingly in Maine. In 2010, Kelly Ayotte replaced Republican Senator Judd Gregg in NH and Scott Brown took over Ted Kennedy's seat in a shocking election, but in 2012 Elizabeth Warren beat Scott Brown, and Olympia Snowe retired and Angus King won and caucused with Democrats. The only one left was Susan Collins.

 

And she may vanish soon.

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WWW.NYTIMES.COM

Several Black Democrats are running competitively in conservative states, and they are doing so by talking explicitly about race.

 

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Mike Espy and Jaime Harrison, two of the five Black Senate candidates in the South this year, may belong to different political generations, but they both came up in a Democratic Party where African-American politicians didn’t talk directly about race in campaigns against white opponents.

 

But there was Mr. Harrison this month, speaking before more than 250 cars at a drive-in rally in South Carolina’s Lowcountry, explicitly urging a mix of white and Black supporters to right the wrongs of the state’s past.“The very first state to secede from the union,” Mr. Harrison said to a cacophony of blaring horns, “because we will be the very first state in this great country of ours that has two African-American senators serving at the very same time — and you will make that happen.”

 

A day later, speaking to an equally diverse audience in northern Mississippi, Mr. Espy called his Republican opponent, Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith, “an anachronism.”

 

“She is someone who believes in going back to the old days,” he said, lashing his Republican rival for hailing the Civil War-era South and refusing to take a stand in the debate over Mississippi’s state flag, which until this summer included the Confederate battle emblem. “We need a Mississippi that’s more inclusive, that’s more diverse, more welcoming.”

 

 

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Mr. Phillips said he was convinced that Democratic groups would move aggressively on the Georgia race once it reached a runoff. But he said the party was still arranging its electoral priorities through a fairly narrow calculus — one that did not favor recruits who are people of color.

 

“There’s lingering implicit bias about what types of candidates are strong and what types of candidates are weaker,” Mr. Phillips said, adding, “Things are moving forward, but not with the speed that they could if the people who control the largest checkbooks invested in the way they could.”

 

Mr. Espy was just as blunt about party leaders. “They need to do more,” he said, urging those who extol the importance of Black voters to “back up their words.”

 

In Georgia, Mr. Warnock said he was unsure how focused voters were on the potential that they could deliver a historic breakthrough for Black representation in the South. But for Democrats, he said, it was past time to discard traditional assumptions about how to compete in the region.

 

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WWW.WASHINGTONPOST.COM

Harrison hopes to capture voters who represent the “New South,” making the state the first in the nation to have two Black senators.

 

We'll see if he can do it. Some parts of the article:

 

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The first Jaime Harrison signs began appearing in front yards here over the summer, then multiplied as more residents of this heavily White, conservative suburb proudly proclaimed their support for the Black Democrat running for U.S. Senate.

 

“Is this really happening here?” said Bethany Pierce, 40, a librarian who has been a part of a wave of Democrats who have recently moved from nearby Charlotte.

 

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In another Republican stronghold, two hours west in the foothills of the Blue Ridge Mountains, some say they feel betrayed by Sen. Lindsey O. Graham, the Republican incumbent who four years ago called Donald Trump a “kook” but has spent much of his time ever since cozying up to him.

 

“Lindsey seems to have lost the spirit of service to his constituents,” said Casey Farra, 45, a former microbiologist and a Republican. “Jaime seems like a man of faith and truth.”
 

 

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Charleston, home to one of the state’s largest Black communities, African American voters who put former vice president Joe Biden on the path to the Democratic presidential nomination are starting to think they can rock national politics again by turning out to send one of their own to Washington.

 

“This state, this whole country, is ready for change,” said Dianne Nelson, a 65-year-old retired nurse.

 

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The state does not have partisan registration, but Democrats are looking to pick up support from a mix of retirees from the Northeast; African Americans from the Midwest returning to their roots; young professionals taking jobs in the automotive and aviation manufacturing industries; and liberal North Carolinians who have crossed the border in search of bigger houses and better schools.

 

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South Carolina Republican officials say that, in the end, conservatives will come home to Graham. What’s more, said state Republican Party Chairman Drew McKissick, those newcomers Harrison is trying to court are actually conservatives who come to the state for low taxes and cheaper homes.

 

He also says Democrats have made a fatal mistake by reducing door-to-door campaigning as the country faces the coronavirus crisis, leaving an opportunity for Republicans to persuade voters who might be shaky on the senator. “Stop your bellyaching” is McKissick’s message to them. For some, the message seems to be working.

 

I continue to wonder if Harrison's attack on Graham not being a man of his word has resonance to some conservative voters that they're seeing in polling.

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A bit on Harrison's time as chair of the SC Democratic Party.

 

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That same year, JA Moore, a chef, had decided that he, too, was going to run for a seat in the State House. He had always loved politics, but he said he felt a new inspiration to do something more consequential after his sister was killed in the shooting at Emanuel African Methodist Episcopal Church.

 

After the initial enthusiasm of his candidacy, Moore said, he began to question his odds. He was challenging a Black Republican incumbent named Samuel Rivers Jr.

 

“Jaime didn’t do a ‘Yes, we can speech’ or anything, but he was so supportive,” Moore said. “He said you’ll be able to get some Black votes and some Republican votes. And you’ll get some progressives and Latinos and women. He wouldn’t let me doubt myself. He told me to just keep telling my story.”

 

Moore ended up winning the race by five points.

 

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13 hours ago, SaysWho? said:
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FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM

Most of the attention on the 2020 election is focused on who will sit in the White House for the next four years. But the 2020 election could also help decide w…

 

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You know what the actual solution to this is? Get rid of or replace the Reapportionment Act. Who will care about gerrymandered districts when blue population centers get a fair level of representation?

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28 minutes ago, ThreePi said:

 

You know what the actual solution to this is? Get rid of or replace the Reapportionment Act. Who will care about gerrymandered districts when blue population centers get a fair level of representation?

Gerrymandering will still absolutely be a thing. Wisconsin has 99 seats in it's larger legislative chamber and it's insanely fucked where the Republicans can get ~45% of the vote but a supermajority of seats

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1 hour ago, mclumber1 said:

I'm surprised that the DNC and other Democratic groups are not pumping money into Montana.  It seems like that Senate race is easily attainable, compared to South Carolina, for instance.

 

Sometimes people forget Montana exists. It's easy to miss all tucked away down there.

  • Haha 2
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8 minutes ago, GeneticBlueprint said:

Real talk: Montana is the most beautiful state in the nation that I've been to and I've crisscrossed the mainland several times going east and west and north and south. It's weird because it's nestled in between some of the butt fugliest states like Dakota and Idaho.

North Dakota is garbage, but south dakota and idaho are beautiful. Don't know what you're talking about. Badlands, black hills, hells canyon. All sunning. You crazy.

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