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~Official 2020 Congressional and State Races Thread~


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FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM

Recent polls of the U.S. Senate race in South Carolina have found third-term Sen. Lindsey Graham effectively tied in his contest against Democrat Jaime Harrison…

 

Why Democrats regularly get a large percentage of votes in South Carolina despite rarely winning:

 

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South Carolina is not that Republican-leaning


The polls suggest that at least 45 percent of voters in South Carolina back Harrison, and that’s not an usually high number for a Democrat running in the Palmetto State. Forty-five percent of South Carolinians voted for Barack Obama in 2008, and 44 percent did in 2012.1 In 2018, the Democratic gubernatorial candidate in South Carolina received 46 percent of the vote, and the Democratic attorney general candidate 45 percent. Joe Biden seems likely to get at least 45 percent of the state’s vote too.

 

The reason: The makeup of South Carolina’s electorate is relatively good for Democrats (up to a point). 

 

Graham is polling behind Trump:

 

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Recent polls show Trump near or above 50 percent in South Carolina, but the state’s senior senator only in the mid-to-high 40s. So there is almost certainly a small bloc of South Carolinians currently backing Trump but not Graham.

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A recent Morning Consult survey found that 84 percent of South Carolina Republican voters backed Graham, compared to 93 percent who supported the president. Similarly, according to a recent Data for Progress poll, 95 percent of South Carolina Republicans supported Trump, compared to 89 percent who backed Graham.

 

Why Republicans are still suspicious of Graham:

 

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Indeed, Jordan Ragusa, a political science professor at the College of Charleston, said that some voters skeptical of Graham, including Republicans, might view him as an “opportunist.”

“The joke in South Carolina is Lindsey Graham can count to six … His voting behavior changes when he is up for reelection,” Ragusa said. (Senators are up for reelection every six years.)

 

"Most white voters in South Carolina don’t vote for Democrats … ever"

 

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White voters in the South also tend to be consistently Republican. That is, they don’t really swing between the two parties as they do in a state like Iowa, where Biden could do 6 to 9 percentage points better than Hillary Clinton did four years ago. At FiveThirtyEight, we call this phenomenon “elasticity” — basically, how many voters in a state are persuadable vs. always vote for one party or the other. And South Carolina is one of the most inelastic states.

 

 

I learned a while ago that South Carolina is "inelastic." The last quote is important on that one -- it's why Michigan voted for Trump after voting for Obama by 16 points in 2008, but why South Carolina gave Obama 44/45 percent of the vote and Hillary around 40/41.

 

Harrison can win, and I wouldn't be shocked. I also wouldn't be shocked if he lost with 48%. Hope your S. Carolina friends vote Harrison in droves!

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Getting back to the House stuff further up, as it shows, Dems could make a run at that Alaska seat, and something I didn't realize until I saw it pointed out a few days ago is that if they win Alaska then the GOP would no longer have a state-by-state advantage in delegations if we somehow got to the nightmare 269-269 electoral college scenario.

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32 minutes ago, Ricofoley said:

Getting back to the House stuff further up, as it shows, Dems could make a run at that Alaska seat, and something I didn't realize until I saw it pointed out a few days ago is that if they win Alaska then the GOP would no longer have a state-by-state advantage in delegations if we somehow got to the nightmare 269-269 electoral college scenario.

Why do you guys do this to yourselves?  A tie isn't going to happen.

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16 hours ago, PaladinSolo said:

Healthcare is still the issue dems should be hammering these morons on over and over.

 

 

 

I worked in health insurance for a few years and that shit is mostly regulated at the state level and it can vary pretty wildly from state to state in just the areas I worked in.  I've always wondered what selling across state lines really meant from a regulatory perspective.  Is it incredibly strict like California or some anything goes shit like a good chunk of the midwest.

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6 hours ago, finaljedi said:

 

I worked in health insurance for a few years and that shit is mostly regulated at the state level and it can vary pretty wildly from state to state in just the areas I worked in.  I've always wondered what selling across state lines really meant from a regulatory perspective.  Is it incredibly strict like California or some anything goes shit like a good chunk of the midwest.

Yeah, I think its just one of those things that they think sounds good till they actually have to figure out how it works, cause selling across statelines is meaningless if that insurer still has to conform to the states regulations meaning they'd have to create a separate group for that state anyways and you're back where you were.  The other option is you strip a states right to regulate it and create a national standard and then you're stuck with wtf does that look like, and could literally change on a whim when federal control changes parties, lol.

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22 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said:

Yeah, I think its just one of those things that they think sounds good till they actually have to figure out how it works, cause selling across statelines is meaningless if that insurer still has to conform to the states regulations meaning they'd have to create a separate group for that state anyways and you're back where you were.  The other option is you strip a states right to regulate it and create a national standard and then you're stuck with wtf does that look like, and could literally change on a whim when federal control changes parties, lol.

Third option: you prevent states from stopping sales of insurance issued access state lines, so it becomes a race to the bottom for business friendly regulations, kinda like how many credit cards are/were (?) Issued from like south dakota because of their usury laws allowed the issuance of high interest cards on favorable terms for the issuer

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24 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

Third option: you prevent states from stopping sales of insurance issued access state lines, so it becomes a race to the bottom for business friendly regulations, kinda like how many credit cards are/were (?) Issued from like south dakota because of their usury laws allowed the issuance of high interest cards on favorable terms for the issuer

Thats option 2, and like i said could change simply because a different party took power.

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2 hours ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

Third option: you prevent states from stopping sales of insurance issued access state lines, so it becomes a race to the bottom for business friendly regulations, kinda like how many credit cards are/were (?) Issued from like south dakota because of their usury laws allowed the issuance of high interest cards on favorable terms for the issuer


It still applies to the state where the person resides or the claim is filed.  BCBS plans are already sold across state lines.  Like if you work for Walmart you’ll have a BCBSAR plan no matter what state you’re in and the provider file with the local BCBS plan and it gets transmitted to whatever plan company you hold.  But that’s because the BCBS Association set up that whole plan to plan infrastructure.

 

I just think it’s a “solution” that will just lead us back to shitty useless health plans.

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