Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
b_m_b_m_b_m

NOAA predicts 60% chance of an "above normal" Atlantic hurricane season

Recommended Posts

I look forward to hearing about NOAA losing funding for making trump look bad in an election year because he does fuck all to help those affected. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, CitizenVectron said:

"The constitution doesn't even mention the NOAA, it's unconstitutional! This is a free country!"

Yes, but the Bible does, and it even spells his name right! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What does "above normal" mean? If normal meant average of the distribution and the distribution is symmetric then you'd have 50% odds of being above average from the get go :p I presume it means something further than literally anything above the average, but what is it? One standard deviation out? More? Less?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
57 minutes ago, legend said:

What does "above normal" mean? If normal meant average of the distribution and the distribution is symmetric then you'd have 50% odds of being above average from the get go :p I presume it means something further than literally anything above the average, but what is it? One standard deviation out? More? Less?

I'm no met, but I follow this stuff because it is interesting, so @SaysWho? Can correct me if I'm wrong.

 

My understanding is it is based on the probability (with 70% confidence, iirc) of the number of hurricanes and the ACE falling into one of three bins: below normal, normal/near normal, and above normal. Normal being the average number and strength of hurricanes in the mid to late 20th century (I'm unsure on exact dates).

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml

Some technical discussion from NOAA

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 hours ago, chakoo said:

I look forward to hearing about NOAA losing funding for making trump look bad in an election year because he does fuck all to help those affected. 

 

NOAA IS A KNOWN LIBERAL.  HE SAVED ALL THOSE ANIMALS WHEN HE DIDN'T HAVE TO - COSTING THE JEW TAX PAYERS A LOT OF MONEY.  INVESTIGATION?

 

trumpmow-1505502580.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is the first year in a while that they're predicting this much activity this far out, which is saying something considering every season since 2016 has been above normal. Every type of thing they look at -- water temperatures, Saharan dust, African monsoon season, wind shear -- point to a high likelihood of an above normal season.

 

This gives a lot of good info, but don't overthink above normal. Info's right in the press release.

 

"An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes."

 

Avg Named Storms: 12

2020 Forecast: 13 - 19

 

Avg Hurricanes: 6

2020 Forecast: 6 - 10

 

Avg Major: 3

2020 Forecast: 3 - 6

 

 

The most active season was 2005. 

 

Avg: 12

2005: 27

 

Avg Hurricanes: 6

2005: 14

 

Avg Major: 3

2005: 7

 

This was the forecast at the time:

 

figure1.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

I'm no met, but I follow this stuff because it is interesting, so @SaysWho? Can correct me if I'm wrong.

 

My understanding is it is based on the probability (with 70% confidence, iirc) of the number of hurricanes and the ACE falling into one of three bins: below normal, normal/near normal, and above normal. Normal being the average number and strength of hurricanes in the mid to late 20th century (I'm unsure on exact dates).

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml

Some technical discussion from NOAA

 

2 hours ago, SaysWho? said:

This is the first year in a while that they're predicting this much activity this far out, which is saying something considering every season since 2016 has been above normal. Every type of thing they look at -- water temperatures, Saharan dust, African monsoon season, wind shear -- point to a high likelihood of an above normal season.

 

This gives a lot of good info, but don't overthink above normal. Info's right in the press release.

 

"An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes."

 

Avg Named Storms: 12

2020 Forecast: 13 - 19

 

Avg Hurricanes: 6

2020 Forecast: 6 - 10

 

Avg Major: 3

2020 Forecast: 3 - 6

 

 

The most active season was 2005. 

 

Avg: 12

2005: 27

 

Avg Hurricanes: 6

2005: 14

 

Avg Major: 3

2005: 7

 

This was the forecast at the time:

 

figure1.gif

 

I guess what I'm looking for is what the distribution is, but seeing the extremes helps some.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:
Quote

An important measure of the total seasonal activity is NOAA’s Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which accounts for the combined intensity and duration of all named storms and hurricanes during the season. This 2020 outlook indicates a 70% chance that the seasonal ACE range will be 110%-190% of the median. According to NOAA’s hurricane season classifications, an ACE value between 71.4% and 120% of the 1981-2010 median reflects a near-normal season. Values above (below) this range reflect an above-normal (below-normal) season. The 2020 predicted ACE range extends well above the threshold (120% of median) for an above-normal season and even above the threshold (165% of median) for an extremely active (also called hyper-active) season.

👀

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

NOAA predicts 60% chance of an "above normal" Atlantic hurricane season

 

 

Or as Trump refers to it, "We're goung to have so much winding you're going to be tired of winding."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...