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US GDP grew at 4.1% (annualized) in Q2, economists: "don't get used to it"


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The U.S. economy accelerated to a 4.1 percent pace of growth in the second quarter, the fastest since 2014, letting President Donald Trump claim a win for his policies even though expansion is projected to cool.

 

The effects of the trade situation can be seen here:

 

Illustrating the volatility of some elements of GDP, net exports contributed 1.06 percentage point to the pace of growth, the most since 2013, partly on a surge in soybean shipments ahead of retaliatory tariffs. Inventories subtracted 1 point, the most since 2014, Commerce said, citing soybean stocks as well as those of drugs and sundries and petroleum and related products.

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Looks like the Chinese buying tons of soybeans before the tariffs hit also helped increase the percentage, which will likely be reflected during Q3.

 

Trump tried to put kerosene on the economy for a short-term gain, but it will likely not be sustained, especially with the ongoing trade war.

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20 minutes ago, SaysWho? said:

Looks like the Chinese buying tons of soybeans before the tariffs hit also helped increase the percentage, which will likely be reflected during Q3.

 

Trump tried to put kerosene on the economy for a short-term gain, but it will likely not be sustained, especially with the ongoing trade war.

It still blows my mind just how close Trump has/had been to being an extremely popular president, if not for his own stupid miscalculations.

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5 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

It still blows my mind just how close Trump has/had been to being an extremely popular president, if not for his own stupid miscalculations.

 

The fact that his approval ratings went down a full point this past week to 41% or the fact that his approval rating hit a "high" this year at 42.7% despite the perception that the economy is doing great (when we know it's doing great for people at the top while inflation outpaces lower to middle class wages and housing prices increase) is stunning. 

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2 hours ago, osxmatt said:

What do you mean the over 4% for the first time since 2014?

 

I thought Obama never had GDP growth over 3% during his whole presidency!?

4% quarterly rate is annualized which more like 1% actual growth. There’s no way the us will grow 4% in 2018. 

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3 hours ago, osxmatt said:

What do you mean the over 4% for the first time since 2014?

 

I thought Obama never had GDP growth over 3% during his whole presidency!?

 

All of the 'look at how wrong the media was about Trump not getting 3%!' tweets on conservative Twitter have been entertaining. It's akin to not understanding tax brackets.

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7 minutes ago, Chris- said:

 

All of the 'look at how wrong the media was about Trump not getting 3%!' tweets on conservative Twitter have been entertaining. It's akin to not understanding tax brackets.

 

I suppose it shouldn’t surprise me, but I’m

surprised by how many people I’ve spoken with who said something along the lines of “I’ll actually make less money after my raise because I’ll move up a tax bracket.”

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5 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

 

I suppose it shouldn’t surprise me, but I’m

surprised by how many people I’ve spoken with who said something along the lines of “I’ll actually make less money after my raise because I’ll move up a tax bracket.”

 

I don't understand how people can still believe that.

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1 hour ago, sblfilms said:

 

I suppose it shouldn’t surprise me, but I’m

surprised by how many people I’ve spoken with who said something along the lines of “I’ll actually make less money after my raise because I’ll move up a tax bracket.”

 

1 hour ago, Scape Zero said:

 

I don't understand how people can still believe that.

 

The only thing I can remotely think of (obviously this isn't directly about tax brackets but still) is, aren't there assistance programs that drop you off a cliff once your income exceeds a certain level instead of graduated phaseouts?

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27 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

 

The only thing I can remotely think of (obviously this isn't directly about tax brackets but still) is, aren't there assistance programs that drop you off a cliff once your income exceeds a certain level instead of graduated phaseouts?

 

A lot of social services drop you basically completely once you hit the income level of "if you spend all your money towards food, you should have enough food to survive".

 

I don't think many people in these programs are making enough money to worry about tax brackets though.

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10 minutes ago, Jose said:

I had employees tell me that  they didn't want to work overtime because they ended up making less because of increased taxes. People say and think the darndest things.

 

You should use their logic and fire them.

 

Decreased income = decreased taxes = more money = no problem!

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On 7/27/2018 at 1:56 PM, Jose said:

I had employees tell me that  they didn't want to work overtime because they ended up making less because of increased taxes. People say and think the darndest things.

I remember my first OT check I was excited because I worked over 120 hours over two weeks and then got my check and was like “huh.... I’m not sure it’s worth all that extra manual labor”. Idk why anybody would think they make less though lol. 

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7 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

Economic growth means nothing to most people anyway since all of the growth in the past few decades has gone to the rich. This chart is very depressing:

 

 

Yeah, but our economy is growing so much faster than theirs, who cares if its completely unsustainable!

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