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~* Make America Great Depression Again -- Official Thread of Corona Virus infected markets *~


Jason

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38 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

 

Weren't people already starting to react to coronavirus before the stay-at-home orders though?

 

Not really... See Mardi Gras, College Football season, The Superbowl, Movie attendance, The HUGE Fury/Wilder fight in Vegas... all of that stuff happened first quarter this year. There have been signs that the U.S. was headed towards a recession for awhile. Coronavirus just exacerbated the problem.

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2 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

People reacting to stay at home before the orders came was like a few days not a big big lag in most cases iirc

Yeah I don't think people started paying attention until March... when The NBA and MLB shut down, that's when everybody started taking this thing seriously.

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45 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

People reacting to stay at home before the orders came was like a few days not a big big lag in most cases iirc

 

This is what I was thinking of, at this point I couldn't remember what the lead time was on people starting to get cautious, obviously Mardis Gras and stuff happened but I wasn't sure if any significant number of people had started worrying and altering behavior yet. You could have had both.

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https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/policy/finance/501712-sp-erases-2020-losses-as-stocks-soar%3famp

Quote

The S&P 500 on Monday erased its losses for the year, surpassing its closing level for 2019 as investors bet on a robust economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

The S&P 500 closed up 38.5 points, or 1.2 percent, at 3,232. That was 17 points higher than its close on New Year's Eve.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 461 points, or 1.7 percent, closing at 27,572. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq advanced as well, adding 110.7 points, or 1.1 percent, to approach 10,000 for the first time. Last week, the technology-heavy index notched a record high, erasing all its pandemic losses.  

 

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2 minutes ago, Signifyin(g)Monkey said:

Another possible reason for the stock market’s outsized rally while the world burns is that day trading has replaced sports betting as the country’s primary gambling past-time.  Online brokerage accounts are opening up at record rates.

 

As you can imagine, that is not a stable support for present valuations.


 

Now I understand why weed stocks went through the roof today. 

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6 minutes ago, Signifyin(g)Monkey said:

Another possible reason for the stock market’s outsized rally while the world burns is that day trading has replaced sports betting as the country’s primary gambling past-time.  Online brokerage accounts are opening up at record rates.

 

As you can imagine, that is not a stable support for present valuations.


 

Anecdotal evidence I’ve witnessed falls in line. My degenerate gambler friends have been posting a lot about stock market moves :lol:

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1 hour ago, Signifyin(g)Monkey said:

Another possible reason for the stock market’s outsized rally while the world burns is that day trading has replaced sports betting as the country’s primary gambling past-time.  Online brokerage accounts are opening up at record rates.

 

As you can imagine, that is not a stable support for present valuations.


 

It's an interesting possibility. However, I'm skeptical of any one or simple explanation for the market's behavior. These valuations seem insane to me, but unless they reach Japan's highest CAPE ratio from several decades back, who knows at this point. It could easily dive 30% over the next 2 months and I wouldn't be shocked depending on the news.

 

In any case, all the index fund purchases I've made are way up. On the other hand, I didn't follow my gut and buy some Airbus when it was completely in the gutter. 

 

 

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17 minutes ago, Massdriver said:

In any case, all the index fund purchases I've made are way up. On the other hand, I didn't follow my gut and buy some Airbus when it was completely in the gutter. 

 

I bought some airline stock, but I chickened out on buying more. United is up $27 a share since I bought it. :beatup: I'm going to just hold, I think, because while my percentage gains are huge my absolute gains don't feel worth cashing out for, especially since I'd be paying short term instead of long term gain taxes.

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The episode of Regular Heroes (episode 5) is up on Amazon Prime Video now. You get to see my girl-version-of-me drop some trollery on Raiders :lol:

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We already have a lot of manufacturing here, it's just largely automated. Same for pharma, but the low margin drugs and generics are done abroad, to say nothing of the outrageous margins on pharmaceuticals in the US.

 

Anyway, I'm sure the trump team has the bulk of that $2T is tax cuts so it doesn't have the bang for the buck that a direct hire program would

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5 hours ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

We already have a lot of manufacturing here, it's just largely automated. Same for pharma, but the low margin drugs and generics are done abroad, to say nothing of the outrageous margins on pharmaceuticals in the US.


No shit. I’m referencing the ones he’s talking about “bringing back”.

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