~* Make America Great Depression Again -- Official Thread of Corona Virus infected markets *~

[Signifyin(g)Monkey]

16 hours ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

So how many dead bodies are ok to justify opening up? How many families have to be at risk of an infectious disease for the economy? Is it .1%? 1%? That percentage of how many possible infected people?

 

Especially when the alternative is stay at home, how many have to die or be hospitalized?

 

This isn't driving or slipping in the shower, this is an infectious disease where there is no cure and there is no treatment. 

As bad as it is to contemplate, you have to eventually make that calculation.

 

The only way to guarantee an *absolute* minimum of deaths from covid-19 is to extend the lockdown to such a degree that you cause 90-95% unemployment, starve 95% of businesses to death and *permanently* disrupt the education (not to mention the psychological well-being) of an entire generation of school-aged children and college-aged adults.

It’s to essentially ensure people have very little to come back to, possibly for a long time.  It’s not feasible.  So, yes, you have to balance future deaths from the disease vs. the well-being of everyone else, and find a peaceable compromise.  A lockdown that guarantees no deaths from coronavirus but nukes everything else isn’t feasible or desirable.
 

It’s not just about being able to eat at Chili’s; it’s about the population being able to have, well, a life, rather than an immiserating indefinite imprisonment in their own homes, followed by the agony of being released into an economy that looks like North Korea’s.

[SaysWho?]

18 hours ago, Dodger said:

 

 

So if we're not all locked in our houses until next year we're all gonna die?

 

 

 

Jesus tap-dancing blue-ballin' pants-splitting spit-loogieing signifying-monkeying pot-heading fuck-shitting Christ.

[Signifyin(g)Monkey]

18 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

In 10 years the economy will be fully back, if reshaped, but those dead people will still be dead. Some people will die or have their lives ruined by the lock down efforts, but less than would have died of the virus. Wearing seatbelts also kills people in some circumstances, but far less than are killed by not wearing them.

 

I am not advocating for total lock downs for years, I think there needs to be controlled openings. But some things will remain impractical such as large gatherings/events, as well as crowded indoor areas such as restaurants and crowded stores. This is definitely going to restructure the economy and some industries are going to massively contract.

It took 12 years and a World War to recover from the Great Depression, so you can’t say that with any confidence.

 

If the jobless numbers go from ‘temporary disemployment due to a government-imposed suspension of business’ to ‘permanent unemployment because said once-suspended businesses no longer exist’, we’re looking at a lost generation, minimum, and likely way more than 10 years.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

52 minutes ago, Signifyin(g)Monkey said:

As bad as it is to contemplate, you have to eventually make that calculation.

 

The only way to guarantee an *absolute* minimum of deaths from covid-19 is to extend the lockdown to such a degree that you cause 90-95% unemployment, starve 95% of businesses to death and *permanently* disrupt the education (not to mention the psychological well-being) of an entire generation of school-aged children and college-aged adults.

It’s to essentially ensure people have very little to come back to, possibly for a long time.  It’s not feasible.  So, yes, you have to balance future deaths from the disease vs. the well-being of everyone else, and find a peaceable compromise.  A lockdown that guarantees no deaths from coronavirus but nukes everything else isn’t feasible or desirable.
 

It’s not just about being able to eat at Chili’s; it’s about the population being able to have, well, a life, rather than an immiserating indefinite imprisonment in their own homes, followed by the agony of being released into an economy that looks like North Korea’s.

So we just ignore the best practices of other countries and scream the dichotomy of shut down everything or to hell with lives, sacrifice your body for your capital overlords?

 

We've already shut down most inperson i and schools. Your second paragraph is what we are doing now. The problem is we aren't ready to open up. Based on many estimates we don't have enough testing, and we are just now *hiring* contact tracers in many states, and the federal government is asleep at the wheel at best, actively fighting the states at worst. Add in that protecting other people from the spread of the virus by simply wearing a mask is part of the conservative culture war, we're in bad shape to.open up right now. We're setting ourselves up for needless death because we are not ready in many states. We've blown what we needed to do during lockdown other than increase testing.

 

It's dumb as hell to think that opening up with consumer confidence in the gutter, people *afraid* to go out, will do anything to help the economy. 

 

Oh well. I'll stay inside and hope that I'm wrong but based on Dr. Faucis comments the other day, I'm not holding my breath that we aren't risking unnecessary death because we aren't hitting our own metrics to safely open up. 

 

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

https://fortune.com/2020/05/11/us-economy-reopen/

Let's see what economists say

Quote

“The push to reopen the economy is making a W-shaped recovery very much more likely,” said Jeffrey Frankel, professor of capital formation and growth at the Harvard Kennedy School.

In Frankel's view, any widespread reopening should wait for a sustained drop in death rates and the broad availability of tests. No one is completely safe until an effective treatment or vaccine can be produced and widely distributed — a scenario that's likely many months away.

Quote

“A W-shaped recovery is a distinct possibility,” said Yongseok Shin, an economist at Washington University in St. Louis and a research fellow at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. “Unless the reopening is carefully managed with extensive testing and voluntary social distancing, infections will rapidly rise in many localities.

“People will then hunker down for fear of infection, and local governments will re-impose lockdowns, quashing any economic recovery we will have had to that point.’’

Quote

Most Americans say they're wary of trying to return to business as normal now. A Pew Research Center survey found that 68% said they feared that state governments would lift restrictions too soon. Just 31% wanted restrictions lifted sooner.

 

“The idea that you just turn the spigot back on is just ridiculous,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at the consulting firm Grant Thornton. ”It’s still a COVID-tainted spigot. No one wants water from a poisoned well.’’

Quote

Last week, researchers at the Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health warned that easing stay-at-home orders and allowing people to mingle more freely would mean that “new COVID-19 cases and deaths will rebound in late May.’’

 

The Columbia researchers predict a resurgence of cases two to four weeks after states begin to reopen.

 

“The lag between infection acquisition and case confirmation, coupled with insufficient testing and contact tracing, will mask any rebound and exponential growth of COVID-19 until it is well underway,” said the lead researcher, Jeffrey Shaman.

But let's open up

[Dodger]

I for one can't wait for government bread lines, but at least I didn't die. 

[Jason]

2 minutes ago, Dodger said:

I for one can't wait for government bread lines, but at least I didn't die. 

 

21 hours ago, Jason said:

Give me shitty microwaved entrees or give me death!

 

[MarSolo]

4 minutes ago, Dodger said:

I for one can't wait for government bread lines, but at least I didn't die. 

Remember when everyone said a Sanders presidency would give us breadlines?

[Dodger]

2 hours ago, Signifyin(g)Monkey said:

It’s not just about being able to eat at Chili’s; it’s about the population being able to have, well, a life, rather than an immiserating indefinite imprisonment in their own homes, followed by the agony of being released into an economy that looks like North Korea’s.

 

 

I don't know how to multiquote with a quote selection since I don't spend all day spamming, but this is our very own board expert. 

[Dodger]

2 minutes ago, MarSolo said:

Remember when everyone said a Sanders presidency would give us breadlines?

 

 

Shit if we had a Sanders presidency we'd be on that Canada time and not having to worry about it so much. 

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

I don't think anyone actually wants to keep people from work but quite frankly the risk of *continued* mass death is too high to justify keeping things as they were or opening up to a degree that would otherwise be considered somewhat normal given our governmental and societal capability to contain the virus at this time. How fucking hard is that to understand

[Joe]

These aren't serious takes by Dodger guys. He's not even talking about businesses in general. Just Best Buy and bottomless wings.

[Dodger]

22 minutes ago, Jose said:

These aren't serious takes by Dodger guys. He's not even talking about businesses in general. Just Best Buy and bottomless wings.

 

You're very clever Jose. You guys make it sound like we just need to go a few months without ice cream and people are complaining about that. Maybe you guys were lucky but I remember the great recession. I remember I didn't put I had a college degree on low paying office jobs because I thought that would make them think i would bolt "for a real job" the second I could, then I had a couple places ask me about my education because they told me they had people with masters degrees applying, for jobs that paid $12 an hour. I remember being in my late 20's and being so desperate for a job I was applying at fast food and retail places  with a college degree because I couldn't find anything. 

 

I have no desire to ever live through that again. So fuck you and Jason and you're stupid jokes that I just want shitty food and Best Buy. Too bad you two aren't gay, you'd be perfect for each other. 

[Jason]

I graduated into the Great Recession, I got one fucking job interview after sending out dozens and dozens of applications. Actually that's not true, I got contacted for a second interview but I was literally out househunting for the offer from the first job when the email came in.

 

I'm still dragging around extra weight from how miserable that experience made me.

[mclumber1]

3 minutes ago, Jason said:

I graduated into the Great Recession, I got one fucking job interview after sending out dozens and dozens of applications. Actually that's not true, I got contacted for a second interview but I was literally out househunting for the offer from the first job when the email came in.

 

I'm still dragging around extra weight from how miserable that experience made me.

 

What are the jobs prospects for Guillotine Operators looking like in near future?  

[Joe]

18 minutes ago, Dodger said:

 

You're very clever Jose. You guys make it sound like we just need to go a few months without ice cream and people are complaining about that. Maybe you guys were lucky but I remember the great recession. I remember I didn't put I had a college degree on low paying office jobs because I thought that would make them think i would bolt "for a real job" the second I could, then I had a couple places ask me about my education because they told me they had people with masters degrees applying, for jobs that paid $12 an hour. I remember being in my late 20's and being so desperate for a job I was applying at fast food and retail places  with a college degree because I couldn't find anything. 

 

I have no desire to ever live through that again. So fuck you and Jason and you're stupid jokes that I just want shitty food and Best Buy. Too bad you two aren't gay, you'd be perfect for each other. 

 

I honestly thought you were kidding around because all you have mentioned as businesses reopening are Best Buy and Chili's. Sorry that no one takes you seriously because you're a fucking moron dude.

[Zaku3]

13 minutes ago, mclumber1 said:

 

What are the jobs prospects for Guillotine Operators looking like in near future?  

Not good but soon.

[Dodger]

5 minutes ago, Jose said:

 

I honestly thought you were kidding around because all you have mentioned as businesses reopening are Best Buy and Chili's. Sorry that no one takes you seriously because you're a fucking moron dude.

 

 

I said that I don't think allowing people to go to Best Buy or Chili's or whatever the fuck it is they want to do is going to cause some super spike in cases and you took that to mean that I must want to go Best Buy and Chili's because.... apparently you're the fucking moron here. 

[emalider]

The lockdown should have bought us time to flatten the curve, develop processes for mass testing/tracing, support hospitals by securing PPE/equipment/supplies, and pass legislation to support businesses and families affected by the lockdown. Whether it is the state vs federal responsibility is a different topic, but personally, the federal government should have led the response to allocate resources as necessary and support factories and our supply chain... but, incompetence. The people's protests and energy being put towards opening up the states is beyond misguided and should be directed at the government to hurry the f up and protect its people (both physically and financially).

 

The ironic thing is this neglect was done in the sake of the economy to help re-elect Trump. If his stupid ass just did what was expected (listened to the experts and ctrl+c/ctrl+v other countries' policies), I have no doubt he'd be re-elected.

[Joe]

Like can you imagine this asshole? I graduated in 2007 and had to work in my family's restaurant business as a host then bartender for over 10 years because I couldn't get a solid job either. But guess what? I never voted for the political party that caused that disaster nor did I vote for our current POTUS that made this situation far worse than it had to be.

[Dodger]

3 minutes ago, Jose said:

Like can you imagine this asshole? I graduated in 2007 and had to work in my family's restaurant business as a host then bartender for over 10 years because I couldn't get a solid job either. But guess what? I never voted for the political party that caused that disaster nor did I vote for our current POTUS that made this situation far worse than it had to be.

 

 

I voted for Obama twice and then didn't vote in 2016 because at the time I lived in CA and couldn't bring myself to vote for Hilary and didn't think Trump would be anywhere near this bad. Shit I actually remember the second time I voted for Obama was the day I came back from a job interview that ended up offering me a job and was the turning point for me to getting my life back on track. 

[Joe]

Just now, Dodger said:

 

I voted for Obama twice and then didn't vote in 2016 because at the time I lived in CA and couldn't bring myself to vote for Hilary and didn't think Trump would be anywhere near this bad. Shit I actually remember the second time I voted for Obama was the day I came back from a job interview that ended up offering me a job and was the turning point for me to getting my life back on track. 

 

Cool. You know Germany's outbreak started after ours and they have opened up parts of their entire economy before us right? If Hillary was POTUS right now, we would have a much higher chance of being where they are at right now.  So good job on that one!

[Dodger]

4 minutes ago, Jose said:

 

Cool. You know Germany's outbreak started after ours and they have opened up parts of their entire economy before us right? If Hillary was POTUS right now, we would have a much higher chance of being where they are at right now.  So good job on that one!

 

Hilary won CA in a landslide so my vote "didn't matter" 

 

I'm feeling less bothered about voting for Biden by the day,  it will never turn into enthusiasm like I had when I voted for Obama, but it's turning less and less into disgust at the thought, so there's that. 

[Dodger]

BTW do you watched Masked Singer? I thought Ken was crazy when he guessed Barry Zito. Dude can sing.

[Joe]

Lol this fucking guy.

[marioandsonic]

51 minutes ago, Dodger said:

 

You're very clever Jose. You guys make it sound like we just need to go a few months without ice cream and people are complaining about that. Maybe you guys were lucky but I remember the great recession. I remember I didn't put I had a college degree on low paying office jobs because I thought that would make them think i would bolt "for a real job" the second I could, then I had a couple places ask me about my education because they told me they had people with masters degrees applying, for jobs that paid $12 an hour. I remember being in my late 20's and being so desperate for a job I was applying at fast food and retail places  with a college degree because I couldn't find anything. 

 

I have no desire to ever live through that again. So fuck you and Jason and you're stupid jokes that I just want shitty food and Best Buy. Too bad you two aren't gay, you'd be perfect for each other. 

 

Hey, I get it.  I graduated high school in 2007, and pretty much spent the next 5 years sending out applications while working for my dad doing concrete work, as well as taking online courses.  I sure as shit don't want to go through that again either, and I'm glad that I have the job I have now that lets me work from home during this pandemic.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Do you know what's actually (theoretically) worse than opening "too soon" and having a substantial increase in sickness and death?

 

Opening up "too soon" and NOT having a substantial increase in sickness and death. 

[Zaku3]

39 minutes ago, Emperor Diocletian II said:

Do you know what's actually (theoretically) worse than opening "too soon" and having a substantial increase in sickness and death?

 

Opening up "too soon" and NOT having a substantial increase in sickness and death. 

In sense we will get a sea of "I told you so"? Which would make use worse off for any future pandemics that are about as contagious and deadlier?

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

1 minute ago, Zaku3 said:

In sense we will get a sea of "I told you so"? Which would make use worse off for any future pandemics that are about as contagious and deadlier?

 

[Firewithin]

 

 

[chakoo]

2 hours ago, mclumber1 said:

 

What are the jobs prospects for Guillotine Operators looking like in near future?  

We will pull this economy back up through the industrial complex of manufacturing and operating of an army of Guillotines! 

[Joe]

8 minutes ago, Firewithin said:

 

 

 

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/ads-sg-feb

[Remarkableriots]

3 hours ago, Jose said:

These aren't serious takes by Dodger guys. He's not even talking about businesses in general. Just Best Buy and bottomless wings.

I want some bottomless wings! 

[skillzdadirecta]

 

3 hours ago, Jose said:

These aren't serious takes by Dodger guys. He's not even talking about businesses in general. Just Best Buy and bottomless wings.

but... Best Buy is open. I was just there Saturday picking up my niece's birthday present. this is in NEW JERSEY. I would have to imagine they're open in other parts of the country too.

 

7 hours ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

https://fortune.com/2020/05/11/us-economy-reopen/

Let's see what economists say

But let's open up

and I'll keep saying this, WE'VE SEEN THIS BEFORE. We have actual historical precedent from 100 years ago for what happened when some cities opened up too soon vs some cities staying the course. Guess who fared better? People trying to make this an either or proposition, economy vs public health, are LYING. We can minimize the damage to both if we're not idiots about it.

[Guest]

13 hours ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

The risk of an individual dieing on the job in their everyday life is not very high, as in total only ~2500 people have died on the job in 2017 (not counting chronic illnesses from the job that lead to death, which is estimated to be ~95,000) all per the AFL-CIO. Seeing these numbers and comparing with covid numbers over the course of two and a half months should give a sense of scale

 

The job requires frequent, close contact with the public, and there's no telling how risky that actually is, or how likely one would be to being infected, let alone spreading the disease.

 

Sorry for not having more accurate numbers, but when talking about a disease that could in theory infect 100 million+ in this country alone even low odds of death is a massive number

But I’m not just talking about dying on the job, I’m talking about dying period. The person working as a server is at heightened risk of catching Covid due to the amount of interactions they have out in public, but that doesn’t say whether they are at heightened risk, or by how much, of dying relative to if Covid wasn’t a thing. 
 

Covid is replacing the cause of death for a large number of the people who are dying. 
 

You are the one making the claim that people are risking their lives and health for Dodger to go out to eat, so the onus is on you to show that Covid makes it more likely that they will die or have long term health issues than if Covid didn’t happen.

 

We actually won’t know this one way or the other for quite some time. There are all sorts of statistical oddities already emerging that will take time to parse.

 

An interesting one I heard about on NPR is that the number of auto crashes dropped of a LOT in late March and April with so many less miles driven in the lockdown era, but the rate of death in those crashes actually increased because people are driving much faster with empty streets. Speed is one of the top factors in fatalities in crashes.

 

I don’t think we need to rush back to normal...or whatever our new normal is, like I’m not reopening our indoor theater at this point even though legally we can. But making a logical argument sans data is effectively just your opinion.

 

(sorry for the late reply, been swamped with work)