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~* Make America Great Depression Again -- Official Thread of Corona Virus infected markets *~


Jason

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I would be very cautious holding ETFs that hold oil futures. They are complex instruments. You need to look at all the futures contracts they hold and compare them with the current market for all the months ahead. Don’t get confused thinking that just because the first two months out are cheap today that the ETF is cheap. These ETFs also often times have high expense ratios.

 

if you want exposure to oil, my recommendation is to buy an ETF that holds a basket  of companies similar to what @Emperor Diocletian II said. 

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1 hour ago, Massdriver said:

If only I had a time machine. Of course if I did, I would go back to myself in the 2000s and put every cent I had into bitcoin. I would be Mitt Romney rich.

I'm sure I've told this story here before, but back when I was in school at the University of Houston a fellow econ student told me about bitcoin and showed me his mining farm he created by installing miners on EVERY open terminal he could find on campus :lol: He had 10s of thousands of coins by the time he graduated and has lived off that for years now. Pretty sure he makes some decently sized donations to the alumni foundation to make himself feel better. Wish I wouldn't have thought he was a loon at the time!

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1 hour ago, Massdriver said:

If only I had a time machine. Of course if I did, I would go back to myself in the 2000s and put every cent I had into bitcoin. I would be Mitt Romney rich.

 

1 hour ago, sblfilms said:

I'm sure I've told this story here before, but back when I was in school at the University of Houston a fellow econ student told me about bitcoin and showed me his mining farm he created by installing miners on EVERY open terminal he could find on campus :lol: He had 10s of thousands of coins by the time he graduated and has lived off that for years now. Pretty sure he makes some decently sized donations to the alumni foundation to make himself feel better. Wish I wouldn't have thought he was a loon at the time!

 

I still remember reading about Bitcoin hitting $3, setting up a wallet, then giving up when I discovered I also had to set up a miner, figuring that surely the ship had already sailed if I was reading about it in the mainstream press so how could it be worth the effort at that point? Then a few years later I set up a Dogecoin miner for shits and giggles and discovered it was no harder than getting set up to flash custom Android ROMs, which I was already doing at the time I was reading about Bitcoin hitting $3.

 

I even had a decent ATI graphics card at the time. :(

 

I also regret not mining more Dogecoin, when Dogecoin peaked I had ~$1,000 worth from maybe a month of mining back around 2014. I should have kept going!

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1 hour ago, sblfilms said:

They actually allowed golf courses to stay open in the Houston region, but wouldn’t allow cart rental/pro shops to be open so all the rich overweight dudes had to walk the courses instead.

That had to lead to at least one death right there! :p

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5 minutes ago, elbobo said:

June oil futures are trading around $10 currently, that is scary 

The storage problem persists, concerns growing July will suffer the same fate.

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https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/493913-poll-43-percent-of-americans-have-lost-jobs-or-wages-due-to-coronavirus

Quote

The Pew Research Center study found 28 percent of respondents had lost their jobs or been laid off because of the outbreak, which has infected nearly 800,000 people in the United States. A third have had to take pay cuts. A combined 43 percent said one or both applied to them.

 

Hispanic Americans have been hardest hit, as more than 6 in 10 reported losing wages or jobs. More than half of Americans between the ages of 18 and 29 and almost half of those between 30 and 49 said they had lost wages or jobs.

 

Those who fall in lower income brackets and those with lower levels of education were also more likely to say their pay had been cut or they lost a job.

 

The cuts are especially troubling if the threat of the coronavirus extends for months. A majority of respodents, 53 percent, said they did not have enough in savings to cover their expenses for three months in case of an emergency like a pandemic-related shutdown.

 

Most Americans also expect the economic problems caused by the novel coronavirus to extend for months, according to the new poll. Thirty-nine percent said they think those economic problems will last for more than a year, while 32 percent said they would last for at least six months.

 

Many Americans have begun receiving federal relief checks to help cover those expenses, and more than half of those who expect to receive a payment say they plan to use the money to pay bills or purchase essential goods for their families.

 

Most respondents, 88 percent, say they support the $2 trillion economic aid package Congress passed last month. And three-quarters say it will be necessary for Congress to pass new measures meant to provide even more relief.

 

But fewer than half, 46 percent, said the aid packages passed by Congress so far will do enough to help their own household. Most Americans think the relief packages are meant to help businesses, those who are unemployed, or state and local governments.

Wow

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On 4/20/2020 at 2:56 PM, sblfilms said:


Problem is that a lot of smaller outfits can’t handle a month of oil glut like this, and the falling domino effects are brutal if that happens. Majors will be fine.

Who knows who will be spared at this point—prices are getting close to zero in Texas.

 

There’s speculation they might even go negative, as producers get so desperate to offload barrels they’ll start paying customers to take them off their hands.  It’s already happening in some places.

 

Once you’re in the bizarro world of negative prices, all bets are off, probably even for the majors. (though if I had to place a bet I’d put it on their surviving as well)

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1 minute ago, Spork3245 said:

Has the price of eggs skyrocketed for anyone else too? I used to get a dozen for about $1-1.50 in NJ pre-shutdown, now they’re like $4-6 per dozen

 

Depends on the store. Whole Foods has not changed their prices, but I noticed that ShopRite has significantly. Kind of the opposite of what you would expect.

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58 minutes ago, Spork3245 said:

Has the price of eggs skyrocketed for anyone else too? I used to get a dozen for about $1-1.50 in NJ pre-shutdown, now they’re like $4-6 per dozen

Yup, they are up at least $2 at my normal grocery store; they even put up signs about the price increase. Bread is also up about $.50.

 

Most stuff has stayed the same except the weekly specials aren’t being run. 
 

The craziest thing about the grocery store is it’s a great look at market consolidation. A lot of those products that once filled those empty spaces won’t return. 

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46 minutes ago, Jose said:

 

Yep. Whole Foods right now baby. Even their more expensive meat prices are in line with ShopRite prices atm. It's weird.

 

How much is their chicken breast (boneless, skinless)? Shoprite is still $2.99/lb which is at least their normal price prior to the grocery craziness - it used to go on sale all the time for $1.99 (like every other week it was on sale, if not more). The stores are never doing sales anymore, it's kinda sick considering their profits have got to be record-breaking at this point.

 

9 minutes ago, Commodore D said:

Yup, they are up at least $2 at my normal grocery store; they even put up signs about the price increase. Bread is also up about $.50.

 

Acme has signs that the price raises are from the wholesalers as well. NJ has something passed by Murphy where prices aren't supposed to be able to be raised by more than 10% as to what they were pre-crisis, but I'm guessing the wholesaler (likely artificially) raising the price is the loophole. A local shop in my town got fined for trying to sell Lysol spray for $12.99 per can. 

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7 minutes ago, Spork3245 said:

 

How much is their chicken breast (boneless, skinless)? Shoprite is still $2.99/lb which is at least their normal price prior to the grocery craziness - it used to go on sale all the time for $1.99 (like every other week it was on sale, if not more). The stores are never doing sales anymore, it's kinda sick considering their profits have got to be record-breaking at this point.

 

 

Acme has signs that the price raises are from the wholesalers as well. NJ has something passed by Murphy where prices aren't supposed to be able to be raised by more than 10% as to what they were pre-crisis, but I'm guessing the wholesaler (likely artificially) raising the price is the loophole. A local shop in my town got fined for trying to sell Lysol spray for $12.99 per can. 

 

3.99, which is the same price as the Perdue Chicken Breast at the ShopRite in my area.

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Our PPP loan funded this afternoon. I asked the bank if they had anybody that could walk us through what we needed to do to meet the requirements for full loan forgiveness and he said the SBA still hasn’t issued their finalized guidance even though they’ve blown through 350 billion in loans.

 

These things aren’t going to be forgiven and come November a bunch of mom and pop shops are going to be on the hook for a monthly payment they didn’t think they would have. This is a disaster waiting to happen. Only hope is that they just decide to forgive them all regardless of whether they meet the constantly changing standard.

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9 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

Our PPP loan funded this afternoon. I asked the bank if they had anybody that could walk us through what we needed to do to meet the requirements for full loan forgiveness and he said the SBA still hasn’t issued their finalized guidance even though they’ve blown through 350 billion in loans.

 

These things aren’t going to be forgiven and come November a bunch of mom and pop shops are going to be on the hook for a monthly payment they didn’t think they would have. This is a disaster waiting to happen. Only hope is that they just decide to forgive them all regardless of whether they meet the constantly changing standard.

 

It would have been 10 times better if we just would've given cash payments to everyone regardless if they were laid off.  

 

But nope.  Let's set up this Rube Goldberg business funding scheme and have it fall apart in 6 months.  

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