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~* Make America Great Depression Again -- Official Thread of Corona Virus infected markets *~


Jason

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3 minutes ago, Emperor Diocletian II said:

It's worth noting that the June WTI contract is trading at $21/barrel, the July WTI contract is trading at $27/barrel, and so on.

For now, I think there is a good chance June will start to drop/tank this week becauses of today and people wanting to get out early. 

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4 minutes ago, Emperor Diocletian II said:

It's worth noting that the June WTI contract is trading at $21/barrel, the July WTI contract is trading at $27/barrel, and so on.

 

I think US producers need it to be $30+ to be remotely profitable 

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3 minutes ago, Emperor Diocletian II said:

It's worth noting that the June WTI contract is trading at $21/barrel, the July WTI contract is trading at $27/barrel, and so on.


Problem is that a lot of smaller outfits can’t handle a month of oil glut like this, and the falling domino effects are brutal if that happens. Majors will be fine.

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14 minutes ago, sblfilms said:


Problem is that a lot of smaller outfits can’t handle a month of oil glut like this, and the falling domino effects are brutal if that happens. Majors will be fine.

 

I think that generally applies to most industries. Assuming that the government doesn't step in and majorly save individuals and small businesses, we are going to see a massive accumulation of market share and wealth by the biggest companies that can afford to weather this.

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24 minutes ago, elbobo said:

 

I think US producers need it to be $30+ to be remotely profitable 

 

24 minutes ago, sblfilms said:


Problem is that a lot of smaller outfits can’t handle a month of oil glut like this, and the falling domino effects are brutal if that happens. Majors will be fine.

The recent Saudi Arabia-Russia oil war pretty much had as an unstated goal the elimination of the market viability of the smaller American producers and their eventual acquisition/consolidation by the majors with whom Riyadh and Moscow have long-standing relationships.

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Doesn’t trading volume matter as well? It’s not like the drop in demand came out of nowhere. Surely a lot of distributors diminished the amount of contracts they were buying. I can’t imagine that many places got caught with their pants down. 

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7 minutes ago, Chris- said:

Doesn’t trading volume matter as well? It’s not like the drop in demand came out of nowhere. Surely a lot of distributors diminished the amount of contracts they were buying. I can’t imagine that many places got caught with their pants down. 

Oh sure - trading volume would magnify the impact of major price moves.

 

This was just a really, really weird anomaly exacerbated by the expiration of the May contracts.

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Demand drop isn’t the issue in and of itself, there just isn’t anywhere to store the oil given the rates at which refiners are actually taking up the product.

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45 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

Demand drop isn’t the issue in and of itself, there just isn’t anywhere to store the oil given the rates at which refiners are actually taking up the product.

The reason why Brent crude isn't having the same storage capacity issue is because the supertankers can be used as floating storage tanks in the North Sea as the distance from the terminal to the water is 500 meters.

 

 

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22 minutes ago, Emperor Diocletian II said:

The reason why Brent crude isn't having the same storage capacity issue is because the supertankers can be used as floating storage tanks in the North Sea as the distance from the terminal to the water is 500 meters.

 

Carnival, get in on it!

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1 hour ago, marioandsonic said:

So, since I think we can all assume that oil prices will rise again, how does one invest in oil?

You can either purchase the stocks of individual petrochemical companies (don't do this) or invest in mutual funds/exchange-traded funds that specialize in the energy sector (do this).

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7 hours ago, Jason said:

I know there's the whole demand for flying issue right now, but shouldn't airline stocks be going up if oil is tanking?

 

Still curious about this. Is today's insanity just too fleeting to have a perceptible effect on airline stocks?

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14 minutes ago, Emperor Diocletian II said:

You can either purchase the stocks of individual petrochemical companies (don't do this) or invest in mutual funds/exchange-traded funds that specialize in the energy sector (do this).

 

Do you have any recommendations?

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38 minutes ago, Jose said:

 

Seconded. Also, ETF's would be preferable because of their tax treatment.

USO and UCO, gonna be hard to buy the bottom but likely a decent buy and hold for 24-36 months kinda deal.

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