~* Make America Great Depression Again -- Official Thread of Corona Virus infected markets *~

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Those choices for the council have seemingly done the impossible: make me actually wish that Arthur Laffer was on it.

[CitizenVectron]

I guess this fits in here:

 

Millenials: The Lost Generation

 

Quote

The Millennials entered the workforce during the worst downturn since the Great Depression. Saddled with debt, unable to accumulate wealth, and stuck in low-benefit, dead-end jobs, they never gained the financial security that their parents, grandparents, or even older siblings enjoyed. They are now entering their peak earning years in the midst of an economic cataclysm more severe than the Great Recession, near guaranteeing that they will be the first generation in modern American history to end up poorer than their parents.

 

Quote

Millennials now are facing the second once-in-a-lifetime downturn of their short careers. The first one put them on a worse lifetime-earnings trajectory and blocked them out of the asset market. The second is sapping their paychecks just as they enter their peak-earnings years, with 20 million kids relying on them, too. There’s no good news in a recession, and no good news in a pandemic. For Millennials, it feels like there is never any good news at all.

 

Yup.

 

Yes, I know it's possible for millennials to still get ahead on an individual basis through a combination of work ethic, luck, networking, etc. The the deck is still stacked against our generation (and zoomers now too, realistically) as a whole.

[ThreePi]

Yeah, I entered the job market in the middle of 2008 and was happy to find a job relatively quickly. Back in February, 90% of my department was given a deal to basically be rebadged under another company and I was one of the few considered valuable enough to be kept on as a full employee. I was planning on using that status as a means to ask for a not-insubstantial raise, or I had plans to look elsewhere. This whole pandemic business sure put the kibosh on that for the time being.

[CitizenVectron]

 

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

5 hours ago, sblfilms said:

If you’re still getting your regular wages, I’d strongly suggest just saving it. We really don’t know what it’s gonna look like in even a few months.

I would also encourage giving some to a local food bank and other local charities that are extremely stressed if you aren't already. If you can swing it, obviously.

[Guest]

https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/492193-a-government-agency-cannot-change-the-terms-of-congresss-covid-19-relief-bill?amp
 

The SBA literally rewrites the CARES Act in its interim guidance on the PPP loans, really boning businesses with high fixed costs like lease/mortgages on their buildings.

[SaysWho?]

WWE deemed 'essential business' in Florida, resumes live shows

 

Quote

WWE was deemed an "essential business" in Florida, Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings said Monday, allowing the company to resume live television shows from its Orlando training facility and Full Sail University in Winter Park.

 

Quote

A spokesperson from DeSantis' office told ESPN on Monday that such services were characterized as essential "because they are critical to Florida's economy."

 

Asked if this would apply to UFC events, the spokesperson said, "The memo does not specify specific sports, as long as the event location is closed to the general public."

 

The UFC has suspended all events and does not have a time frame for a return, though UFC president Dana White has made it clear that he wants to resume as soon as possible.

Starting Monday with its Raw program, WWE will run live shows without fans after several weeks of taped programming, a spokesperson confirmed to ESPN on Saturday.

 

"We believe it is now more important than ever to provide people with a diversion from these hard times," WWE said in a statement. "We are producing content on a closed set with only essential personnel in attendance following appropriate guidelines while taking additional precautions to ensure the health and wellness of our performers and staff. As a brand that has been woven into the fabric of society, WWE and its Superstars bring families together and deliver a sense of hope, determination and perseverance."

 

[Jason]

4 hours ago, sblfilms said:

https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/492193-a-government-agency-cannot-change-the-terms-of-congresss-covid-19-relief-bill?amp
 

The SBA literally rewrites the CARES Act in its interim guidance on the PPP loans, really boning businesses with high fixed costs like lease/mortgages on their buildings.

 

The deep state strikes again! 

[Signifyin(g)Monkey]

14 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

I guess this fits in here:

 

Millenials: The Lost Generation

 

 

 

Yup.

 

Yes, I know it's possible for millennials to still get ahead on an individual basis through a combination of work ethic, luck, networking, etc. The the deck is still stacked against our generation (and zoomers now too, realistically) as a whole.

I still think there’s a possibility  that this downturn won’t be anything like the Great Recession, and we’ll have a comparatively quick and robust recovery.

 

The Great Recession reflected underlying structural flaws in the economy and marked a secular deceleration in the rate of borrowing.

 

This recession was fomented more by exogenous forces than by underlying structural forces; it seems to have incited some deleveraging in the market for corporate debt, but that doesn’t seem to have spilled over into the broader financial system or consumer credit markets.  There is less evident financial fragility. As a result, once the ‘fog’ of covid-19 is lifted, I think it’s still possible that the rate of borrowing resumes acceleration and the economy snaps back into gear relatively quickly, since unlike in 2008-2009, it is still relatively structurally sound, and laboring under a smaller (if still substantial) debt overhead.

 

IMO, the recovery might be more like the kind of recovery you get in cities that get wiped out by a natural disaster a la Katrina and New Orleans—slow-ish liftoff leading into a rapid growth spurt within a relatively short timeframe.

 

I think people (particularly many of those writing articles about this) forget that ‘Great’ Depressions are not just about huge contractions in output like we’re seeing, but about long, drawn-out 10-15 year periods of low growth afterwards courtesy of debt deflation.

[Jason]

14 minutes ago, Signifyin(g)Monkey said:

This recession was fomented more by exogenous forces than by underlying structural forces; it seems to have incited some deleveraging in the market for corporate debt, but that doesn’t seem to have spilled over into the broader financial system or consumer credit markets.  There is less evident financial fragility. As a result, once the ‘fog’ of covid-19 is lifted, I think it’s still possible that the rate of borrowing resumes acceleration and the economy snaps back into gear relatively quickly, since unlike in 2008-2009, it is still relatively structurally sound, and laboring under a smaller (if still substantial) debt overhead.

 

4 hours ago, sblfilms said:

https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/492193-a-government-agency-cannot-change-the-terms-of-congresss-covid-19-relief-bill?amp
 

The SBA literally rewrites the CARES Act in its interim guidance on the PPP loans, really boning businesses with high fixed costs like lease/mortgages on their buildings.

 

You might be right if our government didn't seem hellbent on letting this wipe out a bunch of small businesses. Countries where people will be able to just go back to their jobs and who are having their salaries guaranteed by the government in the interim will probably be fine though, sure. 

[Spork3245]

1 hour ago, SaysWho? said:

WWE deemed 'essential business' in Florida, resumes live shows

 

 

 

Supposedly a lot of the wrestlers and staff are (quietly) upset about this. They arrived on Friday prepared to do 1-2 shows live and pre-tape through May, and were all taken by complete surprise by this.
McMahon pushed for this as the TV contracts for Raw/Smackdown both limit the amount of pre-taped shows WWE can air per year, and they already hit or are near the limit. McMahon is worried that if they exceed the non-live allotment that NBC-Universal and/or Fox will then change the TV deal contract (as they’d be legally allowed due to WWE not complying with non-live shows), reducing the payment to reflect the non-live shows.

 

[Keyser_Soze]

Gas finally dipped below $3 last week here, now it's $2.94

[Uaarkson]

Meanwhile, here in the dumbest state in the union:

 

https://www.lansingstatejournal.com/story/news/2020/04/13/protest-planned-around-capitol-against-whitmers-stay-home-order/2981130001/

[Jason]

 

[Guest]

SBA pulled my credit report today, which usually means an EIDL offer will be coming in the next day or so. EIDL is the long term (30 year term, 1 year deferral on payment) loan. Given that our business is likely wiped out for most of the rest of the year, this will be pretty crucial in allowing us to cover expenses.

 

Still not a peep from our bank on the PPP loan.

[Massdriver]

5 hours ago, Signifyin(g)Monkey said:

I still think there’s a possibility  that this downturn won’t be anything like the Great Recession, and we’ll have a comparatively quick and robust recovery.

 

The Great Recession reflected underlying structural flaws in the economy and marked a secular deceleration in the rate of borrowing.

 

This recession was fomented more by exogenous forces than by underlying structural forces; it seems to have incited some deleveraging in the market for corporate debt, but that doesn’t seem to have spilled over into the broader financial system or consumer credit markets.  There is less evident financial fragility. As a result, once the ‘fog’ of covid-19 is lifted, I think it’s still possible that the rate of borrowing resumes acceleration and the economy snaps back into gear relatively quickly, since unlike in 2008-2009, it is still relatively structurally sound, and laboring under a smaller (if still substantial) debt overhead.

 

IMO, the recovery might be more like the kind of recovery you get in cities that get wiped out by a natural disaster a la Katrina and New Orleans—slow-ish liftoff leading into a rapid growth spurt within a relatively short timeframe.

 

I think people (particularly many of those writing articles about this) forget that ‘Great’ Depressions are not just about huge contractions in output like we’re seeing, but about long, drawn-out 10-15 year periods of low growth afterwards courtesy of debt deflation.

I'm very cautiously leaning towards a U shaped recovery in the economy and a V in the stock market, with the right side of the stock market V being 3/4 of the way up where it may stagnate for a little as the U catches it.

 

The caution comes from the lack of data. I would like to see 2nd quarter earnings and how banks are doing when we get into the Fall before concluding we are good to go, not to mention more evidence on the virus.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Oh brother...

[Guest]

There aren’t enough guillotines to go around. Must ramp up production ASAP.

[Jason]

32 minutes ago, Emperor Diocletian II said:

Oh brother...

 

In a letter to creditors and financial institutions, [Ohio Attorney General Dave] Yost warned that COVID-19 stimulus checks are protected under Ohio law from bill collectors and are exempt from state and federal attachment, garnishment or execution.

[SaysWho?]

5 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

There aren’t enough guillotines to go around. Must ramp up production ASAP.

 

Go figure the ones at risk don't consider  makers essential.  

[CitizenVectron]

3 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

In a letter to creditors and financial institutions, [Ohio Attorney General Dave] Yost warned that COVID-19 stimulus checks are protected under Ohio law from bill collectors and are exempt from state and federal attachment, garnishment or execution.

 

When you're the President, they let you garnish wages and collect debts.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

When you're the President, they let you garnish wages and collect debts.

The debts are explicitly protected from state and federal collection, it is private debt collection that is the issue. More evidence of backdoor bailouts for the banks though.

[Jason]

2 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

When you're the President, they let you garnish wages and collect debts.

 

I have the biggest garnishes, the best garnishes. Last week a crying general came up to me and said, "Sir, your garnishes, I've never seen anything like it, I've never seen such a strongly-garnished hamburger before."

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

Just now, sblfilms said:

The debts are explicitly protected from state and federal collection, it is private debt collection that is the issue. More evidence of backdoor bailouts for the banks though.

A riff on grab them by the pussy

[Spawn_of_Apathy]

19 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

There aren’t enough guillotines to go around. Must ramp up production ASAP.

If only the National stockpiles weren’t left bare the previous administration. We’d have more than we would need. 

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

A riff on grab them by the pussy

Yes, but it doesn’t make sense because the President isn’t doing it. It would make sense if he said “when you’re a bank...”  

[chakoo]

56 minutes ago, Emperor Diocletian II said:

Oh brother...

Banks will once again be responsible for cratering the US economy. 

[Jason]

21 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

The debts are explicitly protected from state and federal collection, it is private debt collection that is the issue. More evidence of backdoor bailouts for the banks though.

 

The dumbest part is keeping individuals solvent would inherently have the side effect of bailing out the banks. 

[Spawn_of_Apathy]

21 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

The dumbest part is keeping individuals solvent would inherently have the side effect of bailing out the banks. 

That’s trickle up economics. That doesn’t work, because gravity. 

[mclumber1]

37 minutes ago, Spawn_of_Apathy said:

If only the National stockpiles weren’t left bare the previous administration. We’d have more than we would need. 

 

Fake news.  Obummer used traditional Islamic scimitars to behead Christians, not guillotines. 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

@Signifyin(g)Monkey - you may want to talk Martin Wolf off the ledge as he's seemingly gone into full-blown panic mode.

 

Personally, I've grown quite irritated with the Great Depression/Great Recession comparisons.

[Dodger]

Just realized I probably get much if any Trump Bucks. Hadn't filed taxes this year because turbo tax said I owed and I've been too lazy to see an accountant to see if they can help me out. Then in 2018 I just remembered I got my relocation bonus to move to AZ which pushed my income to just under $100k. Bah. 

[Massdriver]

53 minutes ago, Emperor Diocletian II said:

@Signifyin(g)Monkey - you may want to talk Martin Wolf off the ledge as he's seemingly gone into full-blown panic mode.

 

Personally, I've grown quite irritated with the Great Depression/Great Recession comparisons.

I can't say he's wrong. Nobody knows what is going to happen. As he notes, the IMF baseline case could be wrong, and it could be even worse than their own worst case scenario where the virus mutates more rapidly than we thought and we can't get a vaccine and it becomes more deadly. This seems very unlikely based on everything I've read though, so I'm more inclined to believe the IMF baseline case with a sprinkle of regional outbreaks that lead to regional lockdowns. The true recovery won't happen until we get a vaccine, but 18 months may be too optimistic there. What if we end up with social distancing and staggered regional lockdowns for the next 5 years because a vaccine proves to be far more difficult than the optimistic scenario? Uncertainty sucks for everyone.

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, Massdriver said:

I can't say he's wrong. Nobody knows what is going to happen. As he notes, the IMF baseline case could be wrong, and it could be even worse than their own worst case scenario where the virus mutates more rapidly than we thought and we can't get a vaccine and it becomes more deadly. This seems very unlikely based on everything I've read though, so I'm more inclined to believe the IMF baseline case with a sprinkle of regional outbreaks that lead to regional lockdowns. The true recovery won't happen until we get a vaccine, but 18 months may be too optimistic there. What if we end up with social distancing and staggered regional lockdowns for the next 5 years because a vaccine proves to be far more difficult than the optimistic scenario? Uncertainty sucks for everyone.

The governments of the world will let people die before they spend 5 years doing rolling lockdowns. We are barely a month into the earliest lockdowns outside of China and pretty much every country but Italy is rushing to begin easing restrictions. 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

10 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

The governments of the world will let people die before they spend 5 years doing rolling lockdowns. We are barely a month into the earliest lockdowns outside of China and pretty much every country but Italy is rushing to begin easing restrictions. 

In Italy, where over 20,000 people have died in the pandemic, a limited number of shops and businesses have been allowed to reopen

 

They're not "rushing" but they are loosening a bit.