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Jason

~* Make America Great Depression Again -- Official Thread of Corona Virus infected markets *~

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17 minutes ago, Dodger said:

Remember, the 32 people renting from him no doubt have it harder financially than this guy


There is legitimately no way you can know this from the information posted :p 

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Just now, sblfilms said:


There is legitimately no way you can know this from the information posted :p 

 

Dude, the guy is 100% clearing 20k a month in good times and buying multiple luxury cars. How can you doubt this?

 

 

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31 minutes ago, Zaku3 said:

I disagree with his interpretation of the Suez Crisis. The British Empire died the day India was given independence. Even then their questionable colonial policies prior to that caused it. Plus 2 bankrupting world wars.

 

I think the argument is more that Suez revealed that the British Empire was dust. We can look further back and see when it actually started/finished to happen, but Suez was a moment when it became clear to the whole world. I think the argument of the article is that this could be a similar moment for the US, which has been crumbling since the 90s but hasn't faced a global test that put it up against other nations of power. We're possibly headed to a situation where, in a few months, some of the western world will be past the worst of the pandemic and the US will be quarantined from the rest of the developed world. I think it's almost guaranteed that Canada will contain the spread more effectively and might have to unilaterally impose a closed border against the wishes of the US administration.

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15 minutes ago, sblfilms said:


There is legitimately no way you can know this from the information posted :p 

 

 

How many of your employees make more money than you do? At least before all this Coronavirus shit happened.

13 minutes ago, Jose said:

 

Dude, the guy is 100% clearing 20k a month in good times and buying multiple luxury cars. How can you doubt this?

 

 

 

 

Dude, this guy somehow only profits a thousand dollars a month, lives with his parents, drives a 1997 Honda Civic so he can sacrifice and give these ungrateful leeches a place to live, how can you doubt this?

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Just now, Jose said:

That is not the picture I am painting at all.

 

But you think it's ludicrous that this guy is financially successful. Again, it's a simple thought experiment, how much money would you have to expect to make from a 32 unit apartment complex in order for you to take on the risk? We can safely say for most people it's more than the amount of money you could make working a regular "safe" day job. As far as I can tell, you are fairly successful in your own right, so answer the question, how much would it take? Probably more than 1997 Honda Civic money.

 

You're a pretty liberal guy so I'm surprised you are taking his side, unless you're just being contrarian for the sake of being contrarian. 

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1 minute ago, Dodger said:

 

But you think it's ludicrous that this guy is financially successful. Again, it's a simple thought experiment, how much money would you have to expect to make from a 32 unit apartment complex in order for you to take on the risk? We can safely say for most people it's more than the amount of money you could make working a regular "safe" day job. As far as I can tell, you are fairly successful in your own right, so answer the question, how much would it take? Probably more than 1997 Honda Civic money.

 

You're a pretty liberal guy so I'm surprised you are taking his side, unless you're just being contrarian for the sake of being contrarian. 

 

I dont think it's ludicrous to think he's financially successful. I think it's ludicrous to assume he is definitely very financially successful. 

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Jose said:

 

I dont think it's ludicrous to think he's financially successful. I think it's ludicrous to assume he is definitely very financially successful. 

 

 

He at least came from enough wealth (social or material) to somehow own a 32 unit rental. You aren't just given this out of the blue

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30 minutes ago, Dodger said:

 

But you think it's ludicrous that this guy is financially successful. Again, it's a simple thought experiment, how much money would you have to expect to make from a 32 unit apartment complex in order for you to take on the risk? We can safely say for most people it's more than the amount of money you could make working a regular "safe" day job. As far as I can tell, you are fairly successful in your own right, so answer the question, how much would it take? Probably more than 1997 Honda Civic money.

 

You're a pretty liberal guy so I'm surprised you are taking his side, unless you're just being contrarian for the sake of being contrarian. 

 

It’s a long term investment to buy and operate an apartment complex. Cash profit in such a place are typically under 10% of rents.


Let’s use the Houston average for an apartment of $1100 a month.

 

32 units X $1100 X 12 months X 10% = cash profit of $42,240 for the year. And that assumes full occupancy and max profitability the entire year.

 

 

12 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

He at least came from enough wealth (social or material) to somehow own a 32 unit rental. You aren't just given this out of the blue

You don’t have to be wealthy to get a loan on income producing real estate. You mostly just need good credit.

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16 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

 

It’s a long term investment to buy and operate an apartment complex. Cash profit in such a place are typically under 10% of rents.


Let’s use the Houston average for an apartment of $1100 a month.

 

32 units X $1100 X 12 months X 10% = cash profit of $42,240 for the year. And that assumes full occupancy and max profitability the entire year.

 

 

You don’t have to be wealthy to get a loan on income producing real estate. You mostly just need good credit.

 

 

Your math doesn't pass a smell test. Shrink this down to a quadplex and the max profit is $5280 a year using your math, and nobody in their right mind would go through the hassle of owning a quadplex for a max of $5280 a year. If the max profit on this thing is just over $40k a year that means the average profit is probably closer to $30k since you'll never have completely full occupancy. You have this guy making the equivalent of around $15 an hour, which means this guy could quit this apartment complex and have a good chance making more money with a "regular" job. Shit you are basically telling us property managers make more money than the building owners, and this guy could probably get hired as a property manager pretty easily. 

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24 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

 

It’s a long term investment to buy and operate an apartment complex. Cash profit in such a place are typically under 10% of rents.


Let’s use the Houston average for an apartment of $1100 a month.

 

32 units X $1100 X 12 months X 10% = cash profit of $42,240 for the year. And that assumes full occupancy and max profitability the entire year.

 

 

You don’t have to be wealthy to get a loan on income producing real estate. You mostly just need good credit.

And a down payment. We're talking about a multi family property not a sfh, so the requirement for down payment is much higher and not insignificant.

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5 minutes ago, Dodger said:

 

 

Your math doesn't pass a smell test. Shrink this down to a quadplex and the max profit is $5280 a year using your math, and nobody in their right mind would go through the hassle of owning a quadplex for a max of $5280 a year. If the max profit on this thing is just over $40k a year that means the average profit is probably closer to $30k since you'll never have completely full occupancy. You have this guy making the equivalent of around $15 an hour, which means this guy could quit this apartment complex and have a good chance making more money with a "regular" job. Shit you are basically telling us property managers make more money than the building owners, and this guy could probably get hired as a property manager pretty easily. 

Its likely less then 10% , so @sblfilms  was pretty lenient with his numbers. Your problem is your looking at pure money and forget that its not just 40k but 40k plus the mortgage on a 32 apartment complex.  When it gets paid off , then you get that big money but thats not a short term.

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9 minutes ago, Dodger said:

 

 

Your math doesn't pass a smell test. Shrink this down to a quadplex and the max profit is $5280 a year using your math, and nobody in their right mind would go through the hassle of owning a quadplex for a max of $5280 a year. If the max profit on this thing is just over $40k a year that means the average profit is probably closer to $30k since you'll never have completely full occupancy. You have this guy making the equivalent of around $15 an hour, which means this guy could quit this apartment complex and have a good chance making more money with a "regular" job. Shit you are basically telling us property managers make more money than the building owners, and this guy could probably get hired as a property manager pretty easily. 


You fundamentally misunderstand why somebody buys real estate. It’s not because it generates a huge income today, it’s because it generates wealth in the future. 

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51 minutes ago, sblfilms said:


You fundamentally misunderstand why somebody buys real estate. It’s not because it generates a huge income today, it’s because it generates wealth in the future. 

 

Correct, and this is why their risk should not be rewarded by taxpayers if it fails. They have an easy way out of the ongoing costs - sell the building. If they are relying on an investment for income (like someone relying on dividends from shares, a different example), they are frankly a little bit stupid.

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49 minutes ago, sblfilms said:


You fundamentally misunderstand why somebody buys real estate. It’s not because it generates a huge income today, it’s because it generates wealth in the future. 

 

So even if this guy isn't making the kind of monthly money I think he is, he still has the benefit of owning real estate, equity! So even if a good chunk of his monthly revenue is going to his mortgage, he's getting some of that back every month in equity which he can borrow against to get the money to keep him afloat until things get back to normal. 

 

His insurance should have loss of rent coverage, I wonder if money lost due to this crisis will eventually be covered under that for businesses. Have you called your insurance to see what's going on? You might have some sort of coverage for this, although I can imagine for now they would tell you to go pound sand maybe that gets changed with some sort of aid package or something. 

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4 minutes ago, Dodger said:

So even if a good chunk of his monthly revenue is going to his mortgage, he's getting some of that back every month in equity which he can borrow against to get the money to keep him afloat until things get back to normal. 

Not sure how well that will work considering the reason and the circumstances 

 

5 minutes ago, Dodger said:

His insurance should have loss of rent coverage

That covers issues caused by damage not because your renters arent paying the bills.

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6 minutes ago, SimpleG said:

Not sure how well that will work considering the reason and the circumstances 

 

That covers issues caused by damage not because your renters arent paying the bills.

Maybe he should have 3-6 months of expenses saved up and stop going out to Starbucks and ordering avocado toast.

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5 hours ago, Signifyin(g)Monkey said:

Well, it looks like Trump’s officially put politics and science on as grand a collision course as I can remember...either he and the pols who decide to flout the shutdown measures get egg on their face (and indirectly cause a whole bunch of deaths) or the epidemiologists do.  Fight of the century.

 

Neil Degrasse Tyson was right!

What is this in reference to? I enjoy Tyson's videos now and then and would appreciate a link, if you don't mind. :D

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16 minutes ago, SimpleG said:

Not sure how well that will work considering the reason and the circumstances 

 

That covers issues caused by damage not because your renters arent paying the bills.

 

 

Right but his tenants have organized a complete rent strike due to global pandemic, and not just 5 of them randomly became deadbeats. I mean the answer is probably still fuck off, but "global pandemic" might rise to the level of a covered event, and if doesn't they might be able to get the government to declare it such, though that's probably another bailout for insurance companies that would then have to cover the claims. I'd still be going over the policy with a lawyer to see if there is a possibility for coverage. 

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6 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

Have to have more than this.

 

And have to fix treating DC as a territory instead of a state.

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1 minute ago, Jason said:

 

And have to fix treating DC as a territory instead of a state.

Anything in particular here? Haven’t read anything about the DC issue in relation to the spending bills they’ve done.

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3 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

Anything in particular here? Haven’t read anything about the DC issue in relation to the spending bills they’ve done.

 

From the NBC article:

 

Quote

The speaker also said the third bill, she said, treats Washington, D.C., in a “discriminatory way” because it deals with the nation’s capital as a territory rather than a state, therefore depriving it of funds that other states are receiving.

 

Also,

 

 

13 hours ago, Jason said:

 

 

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Only the US Government could design a program where people with disabilities get fucked so hard. 

 

If I get laid off, very possible, I'm required to take Unemployment by Social Security. Unemployment is unearned income which means I lose access to the Social Security Medicaid working disabled program I'm on. I then revert back to SSI and the unearned income could reduce my SSI check $0, which would kick my ass off Medicaid. Currently scrambling to switch off Social Security Medicaid to North Carolina Workers with Disability Medicaid which won't screw me over. 

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Since last week, confirmed cases have increased 10x from 8,000 to 80,000, 3.3 million people were able to submit unemployment claims, and the Dow has gone up 3000 points this week.
 

The markets aren’t real life.

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47 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

Since last week, confirmed cases have increased 10x from 8,000 to 80,000, 3.3 million people were able to submit unemployment claims, and the Dow has gone up 3000 points this week.
 

The markets aren’t real life.

 

The markets are salivating over the sweet sweet money the federal government is about to give to all of those big corporations.

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51 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

Since last week, confirmed cases have increased 10x from 8,000 to 80,000, 3.3 million people were able to submit unemployment claims, and the Dow has gone up 3000 points this week.
 

The markets aren’t real life.

The markets are always forward looking, so it’s all about expectations. Apparently the market anticipated worse than 3 million job losses (hard to believe) and it seems to think we will be out of the woods in the next 3 months with a strong bounce. It likes the Fed respond and it likes the stimulus.

 

 I think the market is  overly optimistic, but who knows. I’m not going to time it and I just buy a little. Let’s keep in mind the market completely missed the pandemic a couple months ago. One piece of unanticipated bad news and it will spiral. 

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Admittedly many pollution controls are engineering controls, but it is concerning that we're just giving up any enforcement

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