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~* Make America Great Depression Again -- Official Thread of Corona Virus infected markets *~

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7 minutes ago, SFLUFAN said:

Considering the apocalyptic 2Q forecasts coming from the St. Lois Fed and Morgan Stanley over the weekend, I'm actually pleasantly surprised at today's market activity so far.

That or some of the jobless numbers starting to come in (Ouch Michigan, CA & NY are going to be insane)


https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2020/03/almost-109000-in-michigan-filed-for-unemployment-last-week-compared-to-5000-in-typical-week.html

-edit-

As cold as I might seem in this thread. I do actually feel sad for people losing their job over this. I remember the harsh struggles my parents went through when growing up over my mom's long time business folding.

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I can’t imagine March having less than 5 million new jobless claims nationally. They were thinking 1 million a week ago. 

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1 minute ago, sblfilms said:

I can’t imagine March having less than 5 million new jobless claims nationally. They were thinking 1 million a week ago. 

Considering canada saw 500k EI claims. I think even 5 million might be too low for the US.

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1 minute ago, chakoo said:

Considering canada saw 500k EI claims. I think even 5 million might be too low for the US.

That’s cautiously optimistic me. Realist me thinks it will be double digits.

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22 minutes ago, chakoo said:

Considering canada saw 500k EI claims. I think even 5 million might be too low for the US.

 

And that was in one week. Probably going to see another 500k this week. I would expect 5-12 million for the US through the end of this week (including last week). If it followed Canada's curve then it will be on the higher end, but many states haven't been as severe in closing businesses as Canada (and some American states) has.

 

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Unconfirmed but sources are pointing at 929k filings for employment insurance benefits so far this month in Canada:o USA numbers are going to be crazy.

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Are we counting the numbers that are also working under the table?  I'm already imagining the reported numbers will be lower than what it actually is. 

 

Also dumb question, are we talking about individuals... or household numbers?  If you count dependents, retired, disabled, etc... that number is significantly higher.

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23 minutes ago, darkness35 said:

Are we counting the numbers that are also working under the table?  I'm already imagining the reported numbers will be lower than what it actually is. 

 

Also dumb question, are we talking about individuals... or household numbers?  If you count dependents, retired, disabled, etc... that number is significantly higher.

Unemployment filings only count the individuals who file.

 

The are different types of unemployment metrics.  The "official" one that's reported monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics is U-3 which measures those without a job but are actively seeking one.  This was 3.7% for 2019.

 

The most expansive metric is U-6 which includes total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons.  This was 7.2% for 2019.

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Wow:

 

 

Perhaps because of this:

 

 

That is the equivalent of 8 million in the US.

 

Edit - govt has decided to not table the motion after blowback.

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Mnuchin, Schumer optimistic on coronavirus stimulus package, say deal is close

 

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The two main issues that Democrats wanted — protecting workers and a "Marshall Plan" for hospitals — are "very strongly in the bill," said Schumer, who declined to go into detail.

 

Mnuchin called the president, Schumer said, and told him "we were very, very close to the agreement [and] he seemed very happy with that." He also added that Trump seemed "very positive" about the status of the talks.

 

Schumer said that he hopes they can complete the agreement Tuesday and vote on it by the evening.

 

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At this point its more likely McConnell gets in the way because the WH is bypassing the Senate GOP totally, McConnell isn't even in on the meetings, lol.

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8 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

Perhaps, but I also give credence to the idea that Trump's company is bleeding money and that makes him mad.

 

These corporations should have 3-6mo in savings

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5 minutes ago, SlipperySlope said:

These corporations should have 3-6mo in savings

 

Can't save if you are buying back your stocks to boost your own bonuses.

 

guE0IVa.gif

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haha

 

I'm just mocking the financial shit their talking heads tell us to do. They haven't done for themselves, they're barely making it a week without crying. The rest of us are learning to bake bread. 

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39 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

Perhaps, but I also give credence to the idea that Trump's company is bleeding money and that makes him mad.

 

 

I'm 1000% sure that Trump's properties are bleeding money and are on the verge of going bankrupt if this goes on any longer. It's not like Trump doesn't have a long history of his companies going under.

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5 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

Have these companies tried stopping going out to get coffee, or making lunch at home???

 

Or hitting the pavement and looking for a new business, fresh resumes in hand?

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Just now, Ghost_MH said:

 

I'm 1000% sure that Trump's properties are bleeding money and are on the verge of going bankrupt if this goes on any longer. It's not like Trump doesn't have a long history of his companies going under.

 

Would also make sense why the GOP aid bill included the provision that Trump could decide which companies get money, unilaterally.

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11 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

Or hitting the pavement and looking for a new business, fresh resumes in hand?

Too much avocado toast I tell you

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1 hour ago, SlipperySlope said:

These corporations should have 3-6mo in savings

 

They shouldn't have been buying coffee and avocado toasts every day.

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Companies that binged on stock buybacks seek public bailouts

 

Quote

Now, some of the same companies that binged on buybacks are in line to receive taxpayer-funded bailouts to keep them alive.

Boeing (BA), for example, spent $11.7 billion over the past two years on repurchasing stock before suspending buybacks in April 2019 because of the 737 Max crisis. The aerospace behemoth is now requesting $60 billion in federal assistance as the coronavirus crisis has crushed its customers and forced factories to shut down.

Southwest Airlines (LUV) spent $2 billion on share buybacks in 2019. Similarly, last year American Airlines Group (AAL)also spent $1.1 billion to repurchase its stock at an average cost of $32.09 per share. American Airlines shares closed Monday at just $10. Now the airline industry is seeking $50 billion in federal help as it fights for survival during a stunning decline in worldwide travel.

 

Quote

Buybacks at S&P 500 companies exploded by 55% to a record $806.4 billion in 2018, the first year the tax law took effect, according to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices. S&P 500 companies repurchased another $728.7 billion of stock in 2019.

The top 10% of households owned 84% of all stocks in 2016, according to NYU professor Edward Wolff.

 

 

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