AbsolutSurgen Posted July 26, 2021 Author Share Posted July 26, 2021 25 minutes ago, sblfilms said: Science is observational in nature, we don’t know what we have no observations for. What does seem to be clear in countries like the UK is they are catching for more cases than had been assumed and those multipliers are dropping over time. And when you look at the scale of current waves, it makes the plausibility of an 8X multiple drop considerably. Even antibody testing is coming under scrutiny as there is growing evidence of T and B cell immunity being the real factor in infection derived immunity. Science is based on creating hypotheses, and testing those hypotheses. My observations, and your observations are irrelevant to the issue. Neither of us are trained virologists. Sabra Klein clearly states that vaccination provides much better protection than natural infection. She's a PhD and a Professor at John Hopkins, and a recognized expert in the field. Quote If someone has had COVID-19, why should they get vaccinated? Don’t they already have immunity? If you’ve been infected, you have some protection. But that immunity has limits. The biggest limit is that it doesn’t last as long as we would like it to. Studies have shown that people who have been infected can benefit significantly from vaccination. It gives them a strong, lasting immunity boost. After receiving the first dose of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine, they have immunity levels comparable to those of uninfected people who have received their second dose. We’re still trying to better understand why immunity lasts longer for some people than others. Underlying factors like obesity or age appear to play a role in how long immunity lasts. How long does immunity last from being infected? From vaccination? Immunity from natural infection starts to decline after 6 to 8 months. We know that fully vaccinated people still have good immunity after a year—and probably longer. Why is it that the vaccine leads to better immunity than natural infection? The honest truth is, we don’t know. The immune system of people who have been infected has been trained to target all these different parts of the virus called antigens. You’d think that would provide strongest immunity, but it doesn’t. The Pfizer or Moderna vaccines target just the spike protein—the part of the virus that is essential for invading cells. It’s like a big red button sitting on the surface of the virus. It’s really sticking out there, and it’s what our immune system sees most easily. By focusing on this one big antigen, it’s like you’re making our immune system put blinders on and only be able to see that one piece of the virus. Is she right? I don't know. But as long as people like with her expertise and credentials are saying that vaccination provides better protection than prior infection, I'll challenge anyone without similar credentials that asserts the opposite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said: Science is based on creating hypotheses, and testing those hypotheses. How do you test a hypothesis 😂😂😂😂😂 (Observations) As to your quote, once again, you are talking about something that is not being discussed. As of today, you are less likely to get infected if you have prior infection immunity than if you are fully vaccinated with no prior infection. That says nothing about what will be the case even a few months down the road, but thus far we have seen no notable increase in reinfection despite more infectious variants but are seeing soaring infections in the vaccinated population. That can all change, and we will know through additional observations. As I noted in the previous post, B and T cell immunity is gaining evidence in favor of it being the primary mechanism for Covid immunity from prior infection, not antibodies, so dropping antibody levels doesn’t correlate to loss of immunity protection. If that ends up being the case than the doctor here is incorrect about the longevity of infection derived immunity. Given the numbers we are seeing this month, I’d put money on the b and t cell hypothesis. The b and T cell issue is also a potential explanation for why some people with significant exposure (like multiple members in their household getting Covid, but then not) not getting infected. There are people who have particular T cells especially that have shown an ability to provoke an immune response to defeat the spike protein, and these T cells are likely the result of a prior infection by a different virus. I recommend to all people, including those who have prior infection to get vaccinated because you are increasing the protective ability of your body. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 The jury is 100% still out on whether the vaccine or prior infection provide better protection. Edit: Posted the same link as AS. Good link though! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 V.A. Issues Vaccine Mandate for Health Care Workers, a First for a Federal Agency - The New York Times WWW.NYTIMES.COM Employees who provide direct patient care have eight weeks to get inoculated against the coronavirus or face penalties including possible removal. About bloody time. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, Joe said: The jury is 100% still out on whether the vaccine or prior infection provide better protection. Why COVID-19 Vaccines Offer Better Protection Than Infection WWW.JHSPH.EDU Vaccination offers longer, stronger immunity, says virologist Sabra Klein. There are separate questions about the future, but if vaccines provide more protection than infection derived immunity *today* why are reinfections substantially lower per capita than new infections from vaccinated individuals? Klein’s position is based on the notion that antibody levels dictate length and strength of immunity in both infection and vaccination derived immunity, but that actually doesn’t seem to be the case…which is likely why we aren’t seeing much in the way of reinfections, but are seeing thousands of daily cases of infections in fully vaccinated people. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said: V.A. Issues Vaccine Mandate for Health Care Workers, a First for a Federal Agency - The New York Times WWW.NYTIMES.COM Employees who provide direct patient care have eight weeks to get inoculated against the coronavirus or face penalties including possible removal. About bloody time. It will be interesting to see how the legal system handles the wave of lawsuits that will come as more places require vaccination to keep employment while the vaccines are still under EUA. I wonder if this may be an unintentional signal that the full approval is (relatively) imminent? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 27 minutes ago, sblfilms said: There are separate questions about the future, but if vaccines provide more protection than infection derived immunity *today* why are reinfections substantially lower per capita than new infections from vaccinated individuals? Klein’s position is based on the notion that antibody levels dictate length and strength of immunity in both infection and vaccination derived immunity, but that actually doesn’t seem to be the case…which is likely why we aren’t seeing much in the way of reinfections, but are seeing thousands of daily cases of infections in fully vaccinated people. Probably because a significant number of people that have been infected have also been vaccinated. Again, the data can be hard to parse because there are a lot of different variables right now, such as what I just mentioned as well as the Delta variant. Edited for clarity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 7 minutes ago, Joe said: Probably because a significant number of those reinfection cases are also vaccinated. Again, the data can be hard to parse because there are a lot of different variables right now, such as what I just mentioned as well as the Delta variant. Do you have an example of a place with low vaccination rates and high reinfection rates? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, sblfilms said: Do you have an example of a place with low vaccination rates and high reinfection rates? What I meant to say is that most people that have had COVID infection have also been vaccinated. The data doesn’t isolate breakthrough cases by whether they have been infected or not or reinfection cases by whether they have been vaccinated or not. Comparing old reinfection rates in the face of the new Delta variant doesn’t make sense. Plus as AS has said, it definitely matters that we don’t really know the scope of who has had the virus or who hasn’t to really even know if those reinfection numbers were accurate in the first place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsolutSurgen Posted July 26, 2021 Author Share Posted July 26, 2021 47 minutes ago, sblfilms said: There are separate questions about the future, but if vaccines provide more protection than infection derived immunity *today* why are reinfections substantially lower per capita than new infections from vaccinated individuals? Where is the data that shows this? 47 minutes ago, sblfilms said: Klein’s position is based on the notion that antibody levels dictate length and strength of immunity in both infection and vaccination derived immunity, but that actually doesn’t seem to be the case…which is likely why we aren’t seeing much in the way of reinfections, but are seeing thousands of daily cases of infections in fully vaccinated people. She didn't make the claim in the article I referenced -- in fact the word antibody doesn't appear in it. Are you ascribing that reasoning to her, or are you referencing her from another source? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said: Where is the data that shows this? She didn't make the claim in the article I referenced -- in fact the word antibody doesn't appear in it. Are you ascribing that reasoning to her, or are you referencing her from another source? You'll be hard pressed to find any source showing significant numbers of reinfections anywhere in the world, because it is a relative rarity even right now. On the other hand you can go to ye old Google and find stories from Israel, UK, The Netherlands, the US, and many more of anywhere thousands of daily cases of breakthrough infection happening right now. Again, where are the examples of even notable levels of reinfection? They simply do not exist at this time, and you can bet all the money you have that the medical community, governments, and the media would be ALL over the issue of reinfection if there was a notable change. To the second point: I'm honestly unsure of whether you are taking the piss or being serious, but it is a pretty basic inference here because the way in which immune strength and longevity is being measured is IC50 antibody levels. If the doctor were using a novel method, it would have been noted. Interestingly enough she linked to this article on twitter just the other day, backing up the idea that antibody levels is what she meant. But again, don't even need to have this to know that because that is 100% what any virologist is referring to currently when describing the strength and duration of vaccines The article also gets a bit into the T cell discussion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsolutSurgen Posted July 26, 2021 Author Share Posted July 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, sblfilms said: You'll be hard pressed to find any source showing significant numbers of reinfections anywhere in the world, because it is a relative rarity even right now. On the other hand you can go to ye old Google and find stories from Israel, UK, The Netherlands, the US, and many more of anywhere thousands of daily cases of breakthrough infection happening right now. Again, where are the examples of even notable levels of reinfection? They simply do not exist at this time, and you can bet all the money you have that the medical community, governments, and the media would be ALL over the issue of reinfection if there was a notable change. To the second point: I'm honestly unsure of whether you are taking the piss or being serious, but it is a pretty basic inference here because the way in which immune strength and longevity is being measured is IC50 antibody levels. If the doctor were using a novel method, it would have been noted. Interestingly enough she linked to this article on twitter just the other day, backing up the idea that antibody levels is what she meant. But again, don't even need to have this to know that because that is 100% what any virologist is referring to currently when describing the strength and duration of vaccines The article also gets a bit into the T cell discussion It's not a data set that is being reported anywhere, nor are breakthrough infections. Anecdotes can sometimes be deceptive. For example, this study found that natural infection was only 82% effective at preventing reinfection (this was pre-delta, and included some alpha) -- in the study about 5% of the people who previously tested positive were identified as being "possibly" reinfected. The immune response is a very complicated interaction of antibodies, T-Cells, B-Cells and (from what I have read) "memory plasma cells". Lots of different studies are going on right now, and it's interesting to see the scientific debate on what it all "really" means. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 9 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said: It's not a data set that is being reported anywhere, nor are breakthrough infections. It isn't being reported because the numbers are tiny. That will change over time as it is likely that some of the protection afforded by prior infection will wane, especially in people with generally weaker immune systems and those with high risk pre-existing conditions regardless of further mutation. Breakthrough infections on the hand are not rare, the numbers aren't small, and more governments are reporting their numbers on breakthroughs. In the US the numbers are going up so much that the CDC decided to drop tracking of asymptomatic breakthroughs and only focus on those with severe disease in breakthroughs. But there are places like Travis county (where Austin is) that reported recently an average of 63 cases per day total, with 155 of those cases being fully vaccinated individuals. Obviously this is one community and one week, but there are other places where we are seeing very high percentages of infections in those who are vaccinated and no corresponding bump in reinfection. Not even in the purely anecdotal reporting that you tend to see precede more rigorous data collecting and reporting. There is lots of data showing breakthrough infections in vaccinated people but no such thing for reinfection. Just the facts, ma'am. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 1 minute ago, sblfilms said: But there are places like Travis county (where Austin is) that reported recently an average of 63 cases per day total, with 155 of those cases being fully vaccinated individuals. Wat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 1 minute ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: Wat Sorry, 63 per day for the week, or around 450 for the seven days and 155 of the new infections were in fully vaccinated people. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 Dr. Scott Gottlieb says people who had Covid get 'best of both worlds' if they get vaccinated WWW.GOOGLE.COM "At least with one dose, you do develop a broad, very deep, very durable immunity based on the data that we've seen so far," Dr. Scott Gottlieb told CNBC. Here’s Gottlieb explaining that the vaccine provides broader immunity against variants than previous infection does. Comparing already flawed reinfection data against older variants to breakthrough cases in fully vaccinated people against the Delta variant makes little to no sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 Just now, Joe said: Dr. Scott Gottlieb says people who had Covid get 'best of both worlds' if they get vaccinated WWW.GOOGLE.COM "At least with one dose, you do develop a broad, very deep, very durable immunity based on the data that we've seen so far," Dr. Scott Gottlieb told CNBC. Here’s Gottlieb explaining that the vaccine provides broader immunity against variants than previous infection does. Comparing already flawed reinfection data against older variants to breakthrough cases in fully vaccinated people against the Delta variant makes little to no sense. Where are the reinfections *NOW*? I don't get why it's so hard to admit there is no evidence at this time of even notable levels of reinfection, and you can be certain that all relevant parties are looking very hard for them! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osxmatt Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, Joe said: Dr. Scott Gottlieb says people who had Covid get 'best of both worlds' if they get vaccinated WWW.GOOGLE.COM "At least with one dose, you do develop a broad, very deep, very durable immunity based on the data that we've seen so far," Dr. Scott Gottlieb told CNBC. Here’s Gottlieb explaining that the vaccine provides broader immunity against variants than previous infection does. Comparing already flawed reinfection data against older variants to breakthrough cases in fully vaccinated people against the Delta variant makes little to no sense. I had COVID back in November, so I have both natural and synthetic immunity. I'm basically bionic at this point. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 15 minutes ago, sblfilms said: Where are the reinfections *NOW*? I don't get why it's so hard to admit there is no evidence at this time of even notable levels of reinfection, and you can be certain that all relevant parties are looking very hard for them! They aren’t being reported, but they are most definitely there. Kentucky seeing higher reinfection rates of COVID-19 as Delta variant surges WWW.GOOGLE.COM The state saw an uptick in vaccinations last week with more than 30,000 getting shots, up from an average weekly total of 25,000. "All those who think you have natural immunity, you don't," Stack said. "If you got infected and it was six months ago and you think you're bulletproof, you're not. This virus is reinfecting people at a much higher rate than the previous versions. Even if you've had COVID, you should get vaccinated." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 1 hour ago, sblfilms said: Sorry, 63 per day for the week, or around 450 for the seven days and 155 of the new infections were in fully vaccinated people. These numbers seem fine given the county has about ~35% unvaccinated and the vaccines aren't 100% protective Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 8 hours ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said: U.S. will not lift travel restrictions, citing Delta variant, White House says WWW.REUTERS.COM The United States will not lift any existing travel restrictions "at this point" due to concerns over the highly transmissible COVID-19 Delta variant and the rising number of U.S. coronavirus cases, the White House confirmed on Monday. Seems a little dumb to block travel from countries which are pulling ahead of us on vaccination (and who are letting Americans in). They make you actually prove you tested negative to fly back in from abroad, right? So you'd think they could do the same for vaccinations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 Resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 Federal law doesn't prohibit Covid-19 vaccine requirements, Justice Department says - CNNPolitics AMP.CNN.COM Justice Department lawyers have determined that federal law doesn't prohibit public agencies and private businesses from requiring Covid-19 vaccines -- even if the vaccines have only emergency use authorization, according to an opinion posted online Monday. Good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kal-El814 Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 14 hours ago, osxmatt said: I had COVID back in November, so I have both natural and synthetic immunity. I'm basically bionic at this point. Now that I have metal in my leg after destroying my bones, all I need is a breakthrough infection to become Adam Jensen. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewhyteboar Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 14 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: I truly feel that I live on a different planet from these people. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 Aaaaaaand we're back! CDC to reverse indoor mask policy to recommend them for fully vaccinated people in Covid hot spots WWW.CNBC.COM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 10 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said: Aaaaaaand we're back! CDC to reverse indoor mask policy to recommend them for fully vaccinated people in Covid hot spots WWW.CNBC.COM lol "It's just guidelines, not rules!" "...CDC policy..." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsolutSurgen Posted July 27, 2021 Author Share Posted July 27, 2021 Second time worse than the first. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said: Second time worse than the first. Quote “I have COVID, Becca has COVID, my son has COVID. Becca and I had COVID before, early on, in January 2020, before the world really knew what it was,” Higgins writes. “So, this is our second experience with the CCP biological attack weaponized virus.” He didn’t have it in January 2020. This is another one of those weird things I see from some of the crazier people on the right, claims that they had it in late 2019/early 2020 when there is legit no chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 11 minutes ago, sblfilms said: He didn’t have it in January 2020. This is another one of those weird things I see from some of the crazier people on the right, claims that they had it in late 2019/early 2020 when there is legit no chance. Yeah, for sure. There is certainly a possibility that some small number of people in the US had it in Dec/Jan. But it's unlikely, and it's certainly not the large number of people who claim to have had it. Heck, even in March right when the pandemic was first really revving up in North America, I had the worst flu of my life and got tested twice, but was negative. The winter of 2019/20 was a very bad flu season, and most people just think they had COVID-19. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CayceG Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 Are people really upset or surprised at the CDC reversing guidelines here? I can't see why they would be unless they just don't have an understanding of the function of masks and the ability of covid hotspots to perpetuate themselves. I feel like there's going to be some kind of backlash to this change in policy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, CayceG said: Are people really upset or surprised at the CDC reversing guidelines here? I can't see why they would be unless they just don't have an understanding of the function of masks and the ability of covid hotspots to perpetuate themselves. I feel like there's going to be some kind of backlash to this change in policy. I'm annoyed with them for obviously jumping the gun back at the end of May. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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