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~*Official #COVID-19 Thread of Doom*~ Revenge of Omicron Prime

AbsolutSurgen
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CitizenVectron

CitizenVectron

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If kids return to school this fall in-person and without masks, the same thing is going to happen in Canada and the US:

 

 

Now, of course, kids don't get as severely ill as older people, so that's good! But, the more the virus spreads, the more chances it has to infect an older person, even vaccinated. Also, the more chances for mutation, and for occasional severe outcome (or long covid) for a child.

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We definitely need to be prioritizing getting elderly populations vaccinated world wide as soon as possible. It’s the best way to stop large scale hospitalization and death

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AbsolutSurgen

AbsolutSurgen

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On 7/10/2021 at 1:33 AM, Jason said:

 

LOL the CDC is so full of shit on this. Masks are more effective than 3 feet of space.

 

And wasn't there something a couple of pages back about it being confirmed that, no duh, little kids are in fact a major transmission vector for COVID? The CDC is in pure fucking appeasement mode on this shit.

Physical distancing is absolutely more effective than cloth masks.

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AbsolutSurgen

AbsolutSurgen

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20 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

If kids return to school this fall in-person and without masks, the same thing is going to happen in Canada and the US:

 

 

Now, of course, kids don't get as severely ill as older people, so that's good! But, the more the virus spreads, the more chances it has to infect an older person, even vaccinated. Also, the more chances for mutation, and for occasional severe outcome (or long covid) for a child.

The UK has taken the position that the danger for Covid is in unvaccinated older adults.  Their case numbers are skyrocketing.  However, their deaths/hospitalizations haven't yet.  Given that Canada should have the majority of their 12-and over kids double vaccinated by September, and more than 2/3rds of adults -- and potentially a high number of 5-11 year olds (depending on timing of approval) with their first shots.

I'm optimistic that we can open schools this fall with minimal risk.

Edit:  It is fair to say the UK hospitalization rate is increasing -- just at a significantly slower rate than in previous waves.

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CitizenVectron

CitizenVectron

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1 hour ago, Jason said:

 

Three feet of distance in an enclosed poorly ventilated space is meaningless.

 

1 hour ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

A cloth mask in an enclosed poorly ventilated space is meaningless.

 

I think a lot depends on factors like time, ventilation, etc. But assuming you are feet away from someone indoors for only a minute or two, a mask is going to protect you a lot more than the distancing (assuming the mask is decent quality, fresh, etc). But, if it's a well-ventilated space (really well ventilated), then the distancing might be good enough. But if you're indoors for an extended period in a poorly ventilated room (anything more than a few minutes), neither measure is going to protect you. This thing is airborne and all it takes is a couple of breaths with viral particles to catch it.

 

I really wish the messaging from the beginning had been "Don't be around other people indoors at all unless it is essential for necessities like food and medicine, or a job that cannot be performed remotely or privately. If you must be around others, keep the time to an absolute minimum, wear an ATSM Level 3 medical mask (or better), keep your distance, and replace the mask for each interaction." Instead, we got mixed messaging like "nah fam, wear a mask when you're walking around, but when you're at your cubicle four feet from your desk neighbour, you can take the mask off and do whatever you want! And keep coming into the office!"

 

Stopping the virus was a swiss cheese defense measure (with each tactic helping out by a few %, but no magic bullet). But people and governments don't like approaching things that way, unfortunately.

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silentbob

silentbob

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24 minutes ago, MarSolo said:

Fuck CPAC, I hope these people all end up on ventilators:

 

 


I know you aren't to wish ill will on anyone (even these people) At this point I’m just fucking tired of listening to them help kill more people with their false news/narrative. So fuck’em all, and I hope this Delta variant kicks their ass out of power. . . however that might be. As these people are packing more then just Covid illness, but they are also helping spread mental illness on people who are already mentally fragile as it is.

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MarSolo

MarSolo

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1 minute ago, silentbob said:


I know you aren't to wish ill will on anyone (even these people) At this point I’m just fucking tired of listening to them help kill more people with their false news/narrative. So fuck’em all, and I hope this Delta variant kicks their ass out of power. . . however that might be. As these people are packing more then just Covid illness, but they are also helping spread mental illness on people who are already mentally fragile as it is.


I was too harsh to say that.

 

It just boggles my mind that people like Sean Hannity and Tucker Carlson, who you KNOW got the vaccine, are telling people it’s dangerous. And Trump himself made sure to get the vaccine in private despite the fact that it could have helped his type of people get over vaccine hesitancy.

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CitizenVectron

CitizenVectron

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It's going to get very bad in some US states:

 

09virus-briefing-promo10p-videoSixteenBy

Covid News: Mississippi Urges Masks for Indoor Gatherings as Delta Spreads - The New York Times

WWW.NYTIMES.COM
Educators’ unions praise new C.D.C. schools guidance but acknowledge challenges ahead. Africa endures its “worst pandemic week ever.”

 

Quote

The crush of new Covid patients this week at Mercy Hospital in Springfield, Mo., was unlike anything the staff had seen during the past 16 months. Officials resorted to borrowing ventilators from other hospitals and pleaded on social media for help from respiratory therapists.

 

Quote

”Six weeks ago, we had 10 patients and now it’s 128 on Friday, which is greater than the third wave back in December,” said Dr. John Mohart, Mercy’s senior vice president of clinical services.

 

Quote

Hospitalizations are rare among the fully vaccinated. Dr. Mohart said that 95 percent of the 128 Covid patients at Mercy Springfield on Friday had not been immunized and tests show that most cases were of the Delta variant.

 

Many areas seeing higher ICU figures than December, already. Like someone else here said, all places are going to get to 85% immunity one way or another, it's just a matter of choosing vaccination or tens of thousands of more deaths.

 

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vaxick

vaxick

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Saw a guy I know on Facebook today referring to the door to door vaccine officials as conducting a dangerous eugenics experiment.  I know that morbidly obese fuck is vaccinated even though he will not admit it as I know his employer, and they've always been strict on employees being vaccinated, but it's still insane he's attacking people who are trying to protect pieces of shit like himself who are walking billboards for at high risk for this disease.

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AbsolutSurgen

AbsolutSurgen

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5 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

But assuming you are feet away from someone indoors for only a minute or two, a mask is going to protect you a lot more than the distancing (assuming the mask is decent quality, fresh, etc).

You don't need protection from either in that scenario.  The best science we have suggests you need about 15 minutes of close contact to get an infectious dose.

5 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

But, if it's a well-ventilated space (really well ventilated), then the distancing might be good enough. But if you're indoors for an extended period in a poorly ventilated room (anything more than a few minutes), neither measure is going to protect you. This thing is airborne and all it takes is a couple of breaths with viral particles to catch it.

That is not consistent with ANY of the science I have read. 

 

There are two types of respiratory droplets -- fomites and aerosols. [This is a slight simplification, because there is not a clear "hard break" between the two.]

 

Fomites are large respiratory droplets -- that fall to the ground very rapidly.  Physical distancing is the "gold standard" in protection against fomites.  Largely because they can't travel far enough to get to you.  Cloth masks seem to reduce the amount of fomites by 20-30% -- which is why CDC estimates show that these masks increase the infectious dose from ~15 minutes to ~20 minutes (or ~25 minutes if both the transmitter and the receiver are wearing masks).

 

Aerosols are small respiratory droplets that stay airborne for an extended period of time.  There is a lot of controversy among scientists when it comes to Covid-19 and aerosol droplets.  Some suggest that if aerosol droplets are a prime vector of transmission we would see far more transmission of Covid (similar to measles).    Others suggest that certain transmission scenarios can only be explained by aerosols.  Whichever is the case, it seems to only occur when the area has very poor ventilation and seems to be correlated with either singing our lots of "loud talking".  Regardless, I have never seen a study/assertion from a credible scientist that cloth masks provide any protection against aerosols.  When you are using a cloth mask most of the air enters/exits around the gaps between your face and the mask -- and the rest goes through the very large gaps in the fabric.  This contrasts with a properly fitted N95 mask -- which doesn't have gaps between the face and the mask -- but also has both extremely small gaps for the aerosols to pass through, plus and electrostatic charge to help prevent them from doing so.

 

In my view, if you believe that cloth masks provide as much protection as physical distancing, you either believe that:

1)  Masks provide better protection than distancing for fomites (i.e. fomites can readily overcome physical distancing)

or

2) Cloth masks can effectively filter aerosol respiratory droplets (I would be very interested to see the study that supports this)

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AbsolutSurgen

AbsolutSurgen

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Vaccination rates by provincial government:

Yukon (69%) - Liberal

NWT (64%) - N/A

Manitoba (49%) - Progressive Conservative

Saskatchewan (47%) - Saskatchewan Party (right wing)

Ontario (46%) - Progressive Conservative

Alberta (45%) -- United Conservative Party

New Brunswick (45%) -- Progressive Conservative

Nunavut (43%) - N/A

Nova Scotia (37%) - Liberal

BC (37%) - NDP

Quebec (36%) - CAQ

Newfoundland & Labrador (28%) - Liberal

PEI (27%) - Progressive Conservative

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CitizenVectron

CitizenVectron

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3 hours ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

Vaccination rates by provincial government:

Yukon (69%) - Liberal

NWT (64%) - N/A

Manitoba (49%) - Progressive Conservative

Saskatchewan (47%) - Saskatchewan Party (right wing)

Ontario (46%) - Progressive Conservative

Alberta (45%) -- United Conservative Party

New Brunswick (45%) -- Progressive Conservative

Nunavut (43%) - N/A

Nova Scotia (37%) - Liberal

BC (37%) - NDP

Quebec (36%) - CAQ

Newfoundland & Labrador (28%) - Liberal

PEI (27%) - Progressive Conservative

 

The story is different if you use first dose numbers, though. The reason most of those at the top of the fully-dosed chart are there is because they have the highest hesitancy, and so were able to shift more doses to second doses as demand for first doses dried up. SK for instance might be fairly high on two doses...but is near the bottom on first doses. So it looks good now, but will be at the bottom in a few weeks.

 

Fortunately political ideology hasn't really slowed vaccination as much as it has in the US, but it does appear that traditionally conservative provinces like SK and AB will end up lower than Ontario, Quebec, etc. But, as I said, the difference is far, far less than in the US.

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AbsolutSurgen

AbsolutSurgen

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10 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

The story is different if you use first dose numbers, though. The reason most of those at the top of the fully-dosed chart are there is because they have the highest hesitancy, and so were able to shift more doses to second doses as demand for first doses dried up. SK for instance might be fairly high on two doses...but is near the bottom on first doses. So it looks good now, but will be at the bottom in a few weeks.

 

Fortunately political ideology hasn't really slowed vaccination as much as it has in the US, but it does appear that traditionally conservative provinces like SK and AB will end up lower than Ontario, Quebec, etc. But, as I said, the difference is far, far less than in the US.

Vaccine hesitancy isn't linked to political ideology.  It's linked to lack of formal education.

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CitizenVectron

CitizenVectron

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1 hour ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

These charts show the power of vaccines to prevent serious disease and hospitalization.  The UK is the grand experiment on reopening with a partially vaccinated population.

 

For sure. I think Canada has a few advantages over the UK/Europe (which is also seeing a resurgence of cases) and the US, as well:

  • Higher first dose numbers, and second dose numbers that will exceed both regions in a matter of weeks
  • Much better spread of vaccination, both geographically (which is the US has an issue with) and demographically (with Europe has an issue with, in terms of age)

Two countries could both be 70% vaccinated, but if one has all those unvaccinated people concentrated and the other has the spread out, the first is going to suffer much larger outbreaks. Canada is fortunate that we have pretty good uptake in young people compared to UK/Europe (where they did not prioritize getting it to under 30 as much), and a better geographic spread of vaccination thanks to the issue being far less partisan.

 

Time will tell, of course, but I suspect that all three countries will have pretty low mortality rates moving forward (nationally), with Canada as the lowest.

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AbsolutSurgen

AbsolutSurgen

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45 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

For sure. I think Canada has a few advantages over the UK/Europe (which is also seeing a resurgence of cases) and the US, as well:

  • Higher first dose numbers, and second dose numbers that will exceed both regions in a matter of weeks
  • Much better spread of vaccination, both geographically (which is the US has an issue with) and demographically (with Europe has an issue with, in terms of age)

Two countries could both be 70% vaccinated, but if one has all those unvaccinated people concentrated and the other has the spread out, the first is going to suffer much larger outbreaks. Canada is fortunate that we have pretty good uptake in young people compared to UK/Europe (where they did not prioritize getting it to under 30 as much), and a better geographic spread of vaccination thanks to the issue being far less partisan.

 

Time will tell, of course, but I suspect that all three countries will have pretty low mortality rates moving forward (nationally), with Canada as the lowest.

I think you are lumping things together that are very different.  The UK first dose rates are a couple of percentage points below Canada (and they are vaccinating new people slightly faster than we are -- if they were to open up vaccination to the 12-17 age group like we have -- I am sure they would surpass us.  They have done a better job at getting vulnerable people vaccinated.  Not sure what the partisan comment is -- in the UK, the least vaccinated areas are in London (which primarily supports the Labour party), while the areas that vote Conservative have some of the highest vaccination rates.  Vaccinations are not a partisan issue -- except potentially in some areas of the US (primarily the South).

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silentbob

silentbob

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10 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

 

Pay people 

 


It seems to work for Senators and House representatives with the various lobbyists in D.C.:thinking: 

 

 

I say make it like a power ball kind of lottery. Start with a $5million pot and bribe people to get their shot. So you add $1/2 to the growing pot for each shot given (be it their first or 2nd) and either make a few multi million dollar winners, or one big TAX FREE payout.

 

Hell, do one for the kids with a bunch of various fully paid scholarships too.

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2 minutes ago, silentbob said:


It seems to work for Senators and House representatives with the various lobbyists in D.C.:thinking: 

 

 

I say make it like a power ball kind of lottery. Start with a $5million pot and bribe people to get their shot. So you add $1/2 to the growing pot for each shot given (be it their first or 2nd) and either make a few multi million dollar winners, or one big TAX FREE payout.

 

Hell, do one for the kids with a bunch of various fully paid scholarships too.


A $100 in your hand immediately probably moves the needle more than maybe a ton of money or probably nothing.

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