Joe Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 23 minutes ago, Jason said: I think it was always obvious that +/- a day was fine. I think everyone figured even a week or two of delay on the second dose was fine. The real uncertainty was on how long dose 1 immunity would last and if you could still get the booster effect from it with the second shot if you waited too long. Why? We don't have data on that. It's not just +/- a day. It's 4 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 What the UK scientists were really banking on was that the efficacy of the first dose in an environment with MUCH higher infection derived immunity plus the rapid increase on vaccine derived immunity would be significantly higher than even what they had found in the trial data on antibody levels over time. You have to remember the conditions at the time these trials were done we significantly different than where we were even in mid December when they decided this was the likely path they would take. Brilliant move and courageous in the face of unfounded mockery of their plan. They saved a lot of lives. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperSpreader Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Feeling better today 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keyser_Soze Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 24 minutes ago, SuperSpreader said: Feeling better today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 the pandemic gave us this abortion of a sandwich one year ago today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anathema- Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 TWO SLICE MAN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skillzdadirecta Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Vast majority of Americans aware of, and support, Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine pause WWW.IPSOS.COM Latest Axios/Ipsos poll shows removing the one-dose shot from the market has not impacted people's likelihood to get vaccinated Guess enthusiasm in the country hasn't been as dampened as it was HERE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keyser_Soze Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, Keyser_Soze said: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewhyteboar Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 11 minutes ago, Keyser_Soze said: Weird. You'd think he'd stay away from it because it's over 18. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 1 hour ago, skillzdadirecta said: Vast majority of Americans aware of, and support, Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine pause WWW.IPSOS.COM Latest Axios/Ipsos poll shows removing the one-dose shot from the market has not impacted people's likelihood to get vaccinated Guess enthusiasm in the country hasn't been as dampened as it was HERE. That poll doesn’t say what you think it says. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 "The polls aren't wrong" guy trying to draw conclusions within the margin of error Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 23 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: "The polls aren't wrong" guy trying to draw conclusions within the margin of error What? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 31 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: "The polls aren't wrong" guy trying to draw conclusions within the margin of error b_m: The polling guy should stay in his fucking lane! Also b_m: The polling guy doesn’t understand polls, according to me! Lmao Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, Joe said: What? Overlapping margin of error means the results are not that different actually. And only one data point does not a trend make. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: Overlapping margin of error means the results are not that different actually. And only one data point does not a trend make. I mean it's from the same pollster using the same methodology. It's not comparing different polls from different pollsters. I think that 6% is significant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: Overlapping margin of error means the results are not that different actually. And only one data point does not a trend make. Also, the overlap you are talking about here is on the absolute edge of both polls. You are really stretching to try to dunk on Nate, mi amigo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris- Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 56 minutes ago, Joe said: Also, the overlap you are talking about here is on the absolute edge of both polls. You are really stretching to try to dunk on Nate, mi amigo. As if we’d expect anything less from him? Come on, Jack. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Don’t rain on @b_m_b_m_b_m’a parade. You have to find joy in the little things Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 25 minutes ago, Joe said: Also, the overlap you are talking about here is on the absolute edge of both polls. You are really stretching to try to dunk on Nate, mi amigo. The amount of overlap is irrelevant when trying to determine the true value, they overlap, meaning sampling variability could cause this difference. And yes, that is true even with the same pollster. Anyway, the +/-3.3% is for each subcategory. So very likely is 24% +/-3.3% and somewhat likely is 22 +/-3.3%. so really it looks like not very likely might have ticked up a bit and everything else is pretty much the same. This poll is good to see trends over time in opinion, and this change between the new poll and the one from earlier this month could just be noise, there's not enough data to say that opinion has shifted due to the pause. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Actually I take that back, 3.3% is for the whole population of adults. The subgroup for the question regarding children under 18 is a smaller group than "all adults" so the margin is larger for this subgroup. Whoops! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Again, the trend matters when it’s the same pollster using the same methodology. If a pollster has Biden up 3 and then up 6 two weeks later, they have him up in their polling. You don’t say that they are the exact same poll because the ends of their MoE overlap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Two points don't make a trend lmao And the subgroup "adults with children under 18" has a greater margin of error than the 3.3% for the total sample population of "all adults" and is not published in the poll. Quote The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.19. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on sub-samples. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: Two points don't make a trend lmao Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Two points don't necessarily make a trend, but they certainly could and it's not completely outrageous to comment on it. All you want to do is dunk on Nate, which is obvious with the bs strawman you put in quotes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 This is a good post about what we are talking about. You're saying that the overlapping region pictured here is enough to dismiss the difference, but it's not. Also should be noted that the overlap you are talking about is even smaller than this picture. Why Overlapping Confidence Intervals mean Nothing about Statistical Significance | by Prasanna Parasurama | Towards Data Science TOWARDSDATASCIENCE.COM “The confidence intervals of the two groups overlap, hence the difference is not statistically significant” — A lot of People Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Just now, Joe said: This is a good post about what we are talking about. You're saying that the overlapping region pictured here is enough to dismiss the difference, but it's not. Also should be noted that the overlap you are talking about is even smaller than this picture. Why Overlapping Confidence Intervals mean Nothing about Statistical Significance | by Prasanna Parasurama | Towards Data Science TOWARDSDATASCIENCE.COM “The confidence intervals of the two groups overlap, hence the difference is not statistically significant” — A lot of People Quote The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.19. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on sub-samples. Again, 3.3% is for the full population, and the subgroup of "adults with children under 18" has a higher margin, as stated in the poll itself. Drawing a conclusion based on two data point with this information is fucking stupid, and Mr polls should know this stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Noting changes to a poll, even within the MOE, pretty standard fare analysis. More data points will obviously help shed light on noise vs. trend. I do think it’s important to note that results falling within overlapping MOEs does not mean they are the same, only that they could be the same. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 And again, the margin does not apply to the category sum but to each individual answer. So "very likely" is 24 +/- >3.3%, "somewhat likely" is 22 +/- >3.3% and so on Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 37 minutes ago, sblfilms said: Noting changes to a poll, even within the MOE, pretty standard fare analysis. More data points will obviously help shed light on noise vs. trend. I do think it’s important to note that results falling within overlapping MOEs does not mean they are the same, only that they could be the same. Exactly. This dunk is predicated on the overlap being the only possibility when it is in fact the less likely possibility. Also, you can't exclude the value of Bayesian inference here (using outside knowledge to determine probability, something UK employed in their one-shot approach). Given that we know an event happened that would make people doubt J&J more, we have even more of a reason to believe that this shift isn't just noise. A third data point will definitely make this point iron-clad, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 You can't rule out it is statistical noise because the data is not there. You don't know the margin for the subgroup. That anyone can make a statement explaining differences in the data without the complete data is bad if your brand is data Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 1 minute ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: You can't rule out it is statistical noise because the data is not there. You don't know the margin for the subgroup. That anyone can make a statement explaining differences in the data without the complete data is bad if your brand is data This is going to look like a very silly discussion when the third data point confirms the trend in 2 weeks lol. And homie isn't about to put a full disclaimer on every tweet. Come on now! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Just now, Joe said: This is going to look like a very silly discussion when the third data points confirms the trend in 2 weeks lol. And homie isn't about to put a full disclaimer on every tweet. Come on now! The trend isn't there in the overall population, and the second data point is for a subgroup which we still might not know the margin for error by the third data point. And if he doesn't qualify his statements maybe he should tweet less Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 1 minute ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: The trend isn't there in the overall population, and the second data point is for a subgroup which we still might not know the margin for error by the third data point. And if he doesn't qualify his statements maybe he should tweet less Are we this bored? You hate Nate Silver and expect all his tweets to be fully qualified. Got it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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