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~*Official #COVID-19 Thread of Doom*~ Revenge of Omicron Prime


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We are putting needles into arms at a pace much faster than new infections (including the likely amount of undiagnosed infections). 
 

We should never see spikes like the post holiday spike moving forward as each subsequent mass gathering event will be further squashed by vaccination.

 

It is just math

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Just now, sblfilms said:

We are putting needles into arms at a pace much faster than new infections (including the likely amount of undiagnosed infections). 
 

We should never see spikes like the post holiday spike moving forward as each subsequent mass gathering event will be further squashed by vaccination.

 

It is just math

We've also got more needles in arms in ~2 months than cumulative covid cases since last year.

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10 minutes ago, marioandsonic said:

I still have no luck getting an appointment.  At this point, I think I just have to wait until next month when the J&J vaccine get approved and shipped.


I think in 6 weeks time you should be able to more easily find appointments even if the date is a couple weeks out from the day you schedule. Hang in there!

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1 hour ago, sblfilms said:

We are putting needles into arms at a pace much faster than new infections (including the likely amount of undiagnosed infections). 
 

We should never see spikes like the post holiday spike moving forward as each subsequent mass gathering event will be further squashed by vaccination.

 

It is just math

 

Agreed, but the wild-card is the UK variant.

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7 minutes ago, sblfilms said:


I think in 6 weeks time you should be able to more easily find appointments even if the date is a couple weeks out from the day you schedule. Hang in there!

 

I'm tentatively planning to visit a friend in mid-April (covid permitting), so I definitely want it before then.

 

Besides, it's forecasted to be cold as shit the next couple weeks, so it's not like I'm going anywhere now.

 

5 minutes ago, Joe said:

 

Agreed, but the wild-card is the UK variant.

 

All of the varients in general are wild cards.

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3 minutes ago, Joe said:

 

Agreed, but the wild-card is the UK variant.

Pfizer, moderna, and J&J all have some resistance against both the UK and SA variants from what I read.

 

If we can get overall transmissibility down to summer levels soon (may be likely based on no major holidays for a while and warmer weather soon) and with increased vaccination % and raw numbers going up, even the reduced efficacy shots (boosters non withstanding) should do a lot to keep things going in the right direction, again, from what I've read.

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27 minutes ago, Joe said:

 

Agreed, but the wild-card is the UK variant.

Nah, the wild card is the Brazilian variant. There is still much not known about it and possible signs that someone who had COVID can get re-infected. SA is also concerning due to reduced efficacy. UK spreads fast but the current vaccines still seem to be effective against it.

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7 minutes ago, chakoo said:

Nah, the wild card is the Brazilian variant. There is still much not known about it and possible signs that someone who had COVID can get re-infected. SA is also concerning due to reduced efficacy. UK spreads fast but the current vaccines still seem to be effective against it.

 

By wild-card I mean I still think we are due for spikes in the future. The SA and Brazilian variants are more dangerous, but they are no expected to be the dominant strain in the US in a couple months. The UK variant is.

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The good news is that any vaccine (or any exposure) will boost resistance against future variants. So even if everyone in the world was vaccinated but a new variant started circulating (that beat immunity), the impact should be less. This is why we aren't fazed by a common cold. The first cold to ever hit humans perhaps killed a high % of people who got it, but now it's not dangerous to any but the most vulnerable. Even if we don't "beat" COVID-19, as long as we can vaccinate everyone then the impact of future mutations should be a lot lower.

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31 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

Pfizer, moderna, and J&J all have some resistance against both the UK and SA variants from what I read.

 

If we can get overall transmissibility down to summer levels soon (may be likely based on no major holidays for a while and warmer weather soon) and with increased vaccination % and raw numbers going up, even the reduced efficacy shots (boosters non withstanding) should do a lot to keep things going in the right direction, again, from what I've read.

 

Oh for sure! I was just saying it might not all be downhill case wise from here.

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39 minutes ago, Joe said:

 

Oh for sure! I was just saying it might not all be downhill case wise from here.

Right.

 

Doing some math for fun here, based on what I'm reading as the likely timeframe for the UK variant to be dominant in the US (about mid to late mid March from what I read previously). If we assume over the next 40 days that we only vaccinate about 2M/day (seems conservative to me based on post snowy weather rates) then we will have at least 42M fully vaccinated based only on who has already gotten at least one shot as of today with up to(max) around another 38M with at least one shot (though less because many of these people will have gotten their second shot in this 40 day timeframe). So up to nearly 80 million with some protection by mid March in the most vulnerable and exposed groups, and this is assuming that were either distribution or supply or otherwise constrained at 2M/day.

 

So what does this mean? Based on the CDC proposed phase 1&2 vaccine allocation, this would nearly cover all of phase 1a and 1b (health care personnel&LTC facility residents for 1a, frontline essential workers and all 75+ for 1b) with at least one shot (per CDC, 1a is 24M and 1b an additional 49M persons). All this is even before considering there is some proportion of these groups that will for some reason not get the vaccine or even considering the one shot J&J vaccine which looks to be approved by the end of Feb with "single digit" millions of doses shipped by the end of Feb per the last article I read on this.

 

This will be HUGE in keeping and bringing down infections and deaths even before the UK variant is dominant. Now if we get more or fewer shots in arms in the next 40 days this can change, but I'm optimistic.

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2 hours ago, Joe said:

 

By wild-card I mean I still think we are due for spikes in the future. The SA and Brazilian variants are more dangerous, but they are no expected to be the dominant strain in the US in a couple months. The UK variant is.

 

I do think we might be due for another spike but I don't see the UK Variant being the wildcard factor due to the UK variant responding well to existing treatments and the ones most likely to be hit the hardest are the ones who will be vaccinated by the time it becomes the dominant strain. I see the others being the wildcard because there is a huge risk that both could come over and fuck things up if and when they're given a chance to take old. Already Canada is finding a lot of the SA variant in our boarders and just recently got our first known case of the BZ variant. :)

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22 hours ago, silentbob said:

 

You also have to worry about Valentines Day if restaurants open up again. 

 

We we shall be right back into the shit of things in 2-3 weeks. Maybe not as bad, but it’s gonna spike 

 

If? They are already open here. I drove by some restaurants on the way to the post office Saturday and there were packed restaurants.

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15 minutes ago, Keyser_Soze said:

 

If? They are already open here. I drove by some restaurants on the way to the post office Saturday and there were packed restaurants.

 

As of Thursday in Ontario. We are lifting some restrictions in certain areas which will allow this to happen my way. Been a lockdown on restaurants since Dec 26th with takeout only options.

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Parents got vaxxed today. They did wind up doing my brother in the car, but made everyone else go inside; wish they would have just brought out the other doses given that they were already having to go outside to my parents' car anyhow. But it sounds like they were in and out fairly quickly at least. So hopefully this time is fine, and they got Moderna so they'll at least be at 80% when they go back for the second shot. 

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Well, for the first time, when I opened up the website for Weis Market pharmacy earlier tosay, I was greet with a page other than the "sorry, all appointments are full!" message.

 

I looked and saw that there were openings for covid vaccines, but they were at locations that I was unfamiliar with.  So after Googling their locations, I went with the one closest to me, which was about an hour away...only to be told that all appointments are full.

 

Fuck.

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1 minute ago, marioandsonic said:

Well, for the first time, when I opened up the website for Weis Market pharmacy earlier tosay, I was greet with a page other than the "sorry, all appointments are full!" message.

 

I looked and saw that there were openings for covid vaccines, but they were at locations that I was unfamiliar with.  So after Googling their locations, I went with the one closest to me, which was about an hour away...only to be told that all appointments are full.

 

Fuck.

 

Yeah don't waste time like that, just take something and then deal with however far you have to drive for the appointment. 

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25 minutes ago, marioandsonic said:

Well, for the first time, when I opened up the website for Weis Market pharmacy earlier tosay, I was greet with a page other than the "sorry, all appointments are full!" message.

 

I looked and saw that there were openings for covid vaccines, but they were at locations that I was unfamiliar with.  So after Googling their locations, I went with the one closest to me, which was about an hour away...only to be told that all appointments are full.

 

Fuck.

 

Dude you have to be fast and be smashing that auto-refresh button. Have your autofill ready to go.

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