~*Official #COVID-19 Thread of Doom*~ Revenge of Omicron Prime

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

What African Nations Are Teaching the West About Fighting the Coronavirus (The New Yorker)

Quote

African governments, unlike their Western counterparts, aren’t relying on common sense. Judging from the numbers, and interpreting them with the scientific information that’s understood so far, Africa has made the better bet. Although cases on the continent are increasing, many African countries are not seeing the exponential daily growth in confirmed cases, nor in mortality, that has been happening in the United States and Western Europe. There are exceptions, especially above the Sahel: Egypt, Algeria, and Morocco alone account for a third of the continent’s seventy-two thousand cases, and fifty-one per cent of its 2,475 deaths. But in parts of sub-Saharan Africa—the forty-odd countries below the sand belt of the Sahara, the places about which the world is almost always wringing its hands—the picture is more optimistic. “Rwanda, in their first month, went from two cases to a hundred and thirty-four,” Joia Mukherjee, the chief medical officer for Partners in Health, a Boston-based nonprofit organization that works in ten countries, said. “Belgium, which is the same size—twelve million people—and is the former colonizer of Rwanda, grew from two cases to seventy-four hundred.” Uganda has only a hundred and thirty-nine known cases. Ethiopia has two hundred and sixty-three. South Sudan has two hundred and three. Burundi has twenty-seven. Botswana has twenty-four. Each of them saw their first cases later than Europe and the United States—but not that much later. If the virus had followed the same trajectory there that it has in the West, most African countries would have seen explosive transmission rates by now.

 

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

👀

[skillzdadirecta]

2 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

👀

 So they tested damn near 50,000 people in a week from this incident alone... THIS is how you open back up. It's literally the only way... you have to have this level of testing and tracing.

[AbsolutSurgen]

[Commodore D]

Just drove through one of the college districts, tons of beer pong being played on the front lawns.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

31 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

Speaking of staying in your lane, behold, more know it all tech bros 

[AbsolutSurgen]

12 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

Speaking of staying in your lane, behold, more know it all tech bros 

If a model produces different results on every computer it is run on...

[Joe]

The schtick is stay in your lane if you say something I disagree with. If you say something I agree with, all's good!

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

9 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

If a model produces different results on every computer it is run on...

Admittedly I didn't read the whole article because I'm not paying for it, but generally this is where domain expertise comes in to determine if the differences are significant.

 

Either way, both in the US and in the UK were looking at massive death tolls and that's with the lockdown so what is the fucking point

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

1 minute ago, Jose said:

The schtick is stay in your lane if you say something I disagree with. If you say something I agree with, all's good!

No it's some computer tech bros, the most insufferable know it alls on the planet, or someone who headed a team with domain expertise that helped lead to the lockdowns, in which tens of thousands still died

[Joe]

3 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

No it's some computer tech bros, the most insufferable know it alls on the planet, or someone who headed a team with domain expertise that helped lead to the lockdowns, in which tens of thousands still died

 

Dude you diagnosed Bill Mitchell with COVID-19 the other day over 4 of his tweets, the first of which literally said he was suffering from a PE.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

3 minutes ago, Jose said:

 

Dude you diagnosed Bill Mitchell with COVID-19 the other day over 4 of his tweets, the first of which literally said he was suffering from a PE.

I'm not getting written up in the daily telegraph or to an audience of 3+ million. Best case a dozen people read my nonsense here.

[Keyser_Soze]

2 hours ago, Emperor Diocletian II said:

What African Nations Are Teaching the West About Fighting the Coronavirus (The New Yorker)

 

 

They are dying from everything else too much to get Covid

 

3 hours ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

A shit analogy

 

It wasn't great. I mean usually they drain the pool and clean it, I mean I guess if it's not a floater. And by god people start using the thread reader!

 

Spoiler

 

[CitizenVectron]

Some people were wondering if Texas would see a surge a few weeks after loosening restrictions:

 

 

[SuperSpreader]

13 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

Some people were wondering if Texas would see a surge a few weeks after loosening restrictions:

 

 

Fake news 

[skillzdadirecta]

15 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

Some people were wondering if Texas would see a surge a few weeks after loosening restrictions:

 

 

[Signifyin(g)Monkey]

In case you thought China wasn’t still beating the US at the long game...

 

Looks like the pandemic is actually aiding the ‘debt trap diplomacy’ underpinning the Belt and Road Initiative.

 

Seriously, the BRI could easily, over the long term, be the mechanism by which China (and more broadly East Asia) reclaims global hegemony from the West—and they may not even need to fire a shot.  Our clumsy response to the pandemic is just one more opportunity we’re gifting them.

 

[marioandsonic]

4 hours ago, Emperor Diocletian II said:

I'm going to call this now:  it will be just our "dumb luck" that the United States will avoid a second wave in the late summer/autumn.  This will lead to an even further damaging of the reputation of scientific experts among the general public, and more than likely the re-election of The Imbecile as he will undoubtedly make political hay out of it.

If this happens, I'm ending my life.

[Keyser_Soze]

19 minutes ago, marioandsonic said:

If this happens, I'm ending my life.

I hope this doesn’t happen

[Joe]

1 hour ago, CitizenVectron said:

Some people were wondering if Texas would see a surge a few weeks after loosening restrictions:

 

 

 

We really have to be more critical when we see reports like this. Dishonest framing is why we have idiots that don't trust the media and are walking around without masks on and not social distancing. Not talking about you, but just in general from discussions I have seen on Twitter regarding this story.

[emalider]

1 hour ago, Jose said:

 

We really have to be more critical when we see reports like this. Dishonest framing is why we have idiots that don't trust the media and are walking around without masks on and not social distancing. Not talking about you, but just in general from discussions I have seen on Twitter regarding this story.

I don't really see it as dishonest. They are testing more, but there's also an increase in hospitalizations supporting the increase in cases. I may have missed some of the more crazy Twitter conversations, but the threads I read didn't seem too bad (Twitter considered).

 

Sidenote: the length of stay for many of these patients can be quite long, which will start to affect hospital systems and which services they provide. Yes, you can have all the ventilators in the world, but patient outcomes will decrease when staff are caring for more patients than they're used to, these patients are requiring rapid interventions, and non-ICUs are converted into ICUs.

[Joe]

5 hours ago, emalider said:

I don't really see it as dishonest. They are testing more, but there's also an increase in hospitalizations supporting the increase in cases. I may have missed some of the more crazy Twitter conversations, but the threads I read didn't seem too bad (Twitter considered).

 

Sidenote: the length of stay for many of these patients can be quite long, which will start to affect hospital systems and which services they provide. Yes, you can have all the ventilators in the world, but patient outcomes will decrease when staff are caring for more patients than they're used to, these patients are requiring rapid interventions, and non-ICUs are converted into ICUs.

 

Where have you seen that hospitalizations are up? If anything, Texas is seeing a reduction in cases as the positive rate has decreased significantly.

[Joe]

Media is doing this everywhere. Such bullshit.

[PaladinSolo]

11 minutes ago, Jose said:

Media is doing this everywhere. Such bullshit.

Its not wrong though, new cases are indeed up, TX especially has seen a not insignificant rise in new cases, rates being down is cause testing across the country has nearly doubled, in the last week or so.  Rates mean little when in the right condition a person can infect hundreds, like say a church filled with people calling mask orders tyranny.

[Joe]

2 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said:

Its not wrong though, new cases are indeed up, TX especially has seen a not insignificant rise in new cases, rates being down is cause testing across the country has nearly doubled, in the last week or so.  Rates mean little when in the right condition a person can infect hundreds.

 

Testing rates have nearly quadrupled in Texas recently. That's what has caused the spike. Catching a ton of asymptomatic people is not indicative of an outbreak, which is what this has been made to look like.

[PaladinSolo]

17 minutes ago, Jose said:

 

Testing rates have nearly quadrupled in Texas recently. That's what has caused the spike. Catching a ton of asymptomatic people is not indicative of an outbreak, which is what this has been made to look like.

If your rate goes down cause you're testing more and your overall cases spikes, thats not a good sign, it means theres more virus not less, if they had tested more and the overall cases stayed the same then your point would be right.  Next week or two will tell us far more, cause this past week is likely people who were infected just before or right after TX opened up.

[Joe]

1 minute ago, PaladinSolo said:

If your rate goes down cause you're testing more and your overall cases spikes, thats not a good sign, it means theres more virus not less, if they had tested more and the overall cases stayed the same then your point would be right.

 

No, that does not make sense. There are many thousands of uncaptured cases around the USA just like in every other country. Once you start capturing more of them, that does not signal an outbreak. You do not have to have a positivity rate of 0% for the new cases. That's absurd and impossible.

[PaladinSolo]

48 minutes ago, Jose said:

 

No, that does not make sense. There are many thousands of uncaptured cases around the USA just like in every other country. Once you start capturing more of them, that does not signal an outbreak. You do not have to have a positivity rate of 0% for the new cases. That's absurd and impossible.

It means they opened the state without knowing the true extent of their outbreak, which is much higher than thought especially since Texas is still one of the worst states for testing.  Deaths have also started to tick up in the state, but like I said we'll see how this shakes out in the next week or two.

[Anathema-]

Considering the states in question I don't think it's outlandish to consider that, even if calling it a "spike" is misleading, perhaps it's the lie we need right now.

[Remarkableriots]

 

[AbsolutSurgen]

Restaurant and bar owners say social distancing could wipe out their industry

Quote

Restaurant owners and managers are grappling with the brutal math that underpins their industry. Margins are razor thin, forcing eateries and bars to pack in customers every night, and especially on the weekends, in order to stay afloat. In the toughest markets, that means multiple waves of guests, and tables that are pushed together as closely as possible.

It's a business model that is simply not compatible with social distancing.

"There will be no profits for us while we are social distancing," said Blaiss Nowak, another Georgia restaurateur who chose to reopen when restrictions were lifted last month. "There are a great amount of restaurants that I've heard will never open again."

….

"If we suddenly halve our customers without government support it will lead to a huge number of business closures and job losses," said James Ramsden, a London restaurant owner whose business only breaks even at 85% capacity.

Kate Nicolls, CEO of the trade association UK Hospitality, called on the government to support businesses with rent payments to continue wage support for industry workers. "For some businesses, [social distancing] isn't going to be economically viable and it may be the case that a significant number of outlets cannot open," she said.

….

Bars are even worse off than restaurants, according to Gagan Gurung, the owner of Hong Kong's Tell Camellia. The former British colony imposed social distancing rules, allowing restaurants and bars to remain open at half capacity and with spacing of five feet between groups.

But when infection rates spiked at the end of March, the Hong Kong Food and Health Bureau found that over half of new cases had originated in bars. As a result, establishments exclusively serving alcohol were ordered to shut down for a month while restaurants continued to operate.

Gurung's cocktail bar has since been allowed to reopen. But he says that cutting its usual seating capacity of 30 in half is simply not feasible in the long run.

"How do you survive only having 15 people at 1.5 meters distancing?" Gurung said. "It's not healthy for our business for sure."

 

This is consistent with what I have heard from people in the business over the years.

[CayceG]

I'm no business owner and am not familiar with the restaurant biz. But what is it about that industry that requires such tight margins?

 

Or is the entire economy this tightly wound?

[Spawn_of_Apathy]

2 hours ago, Jose said:

 

No, that does not make sense. There are many thousands of uncaptured cases around the USA just like in every other country. Once you start capturing more of them, that does not signal an outbreak. You do not have to have a positivity rate of 0% for the new cases. That's absurd and impossible.

Outbreak already happened. Testing ramping up is just telling us how big the outbreak is. If people getting it were always asymptomatic then it would t be a big deal. But even at the current trend of 80% that’s still 200,000 for every million infected that made significant reactions. With 50k per million estimated to be severe. 
 

it may be alarmist to report it as they are, but the concern is many places are opening too soon, because we haven’t had adequate testing to show we’re past the outbreak. It didn’t get as bad BECAUSE people had to stay home. Mingling before the virus has subsided will just delay what isn’t necessarily “inevitable”. 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

22 minutes ago, CayceG said:

I'm no business owner and am not familiar with the restaurant biz. But what is it about that industry that requires such tight margins?

Significant fixed overhead costs + highly variable revenue with very elastic demand = razor-thin margins.

[Anathema-]

the rent is too damn high