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~*Official #COVID-19 Thread of Doom*~ Revenge of Omicron Prime


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5 hours ago, Jason said:

I did PCR tests on Tuesday and Thursday and haven't received results from either yet. Two different providers too. How are we back to 2020 where the test results take so long that they're useless while other countries can turn around a PCR test in 8 hours? 

What happened on Wednesday?

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When I first started paying attention to politics, there was definitely a period where it was helpful watching Fox News to get an understanding of how it operates. I remember I watched the beginning of Bill O'Reilly for a week straight, and every show he led off talking about Ward Churchill, a University of Colorado professor who wrote an essay with a somewhat spicy take about the 9/11 attacks where he brought up Adolf Eichmann.

 

If you didn't watch Fox News, you would never know who this dude was, but if you tuned into it, and you went in with the expectation that the news always covers stuff for good reason, and that you don't have to think to much about their motivations for making something the lead story, and if you were generally freaked out after 9/11 like most people were, then I can see how you'd get duped into thinking that Ward Churchill was representative of a big wave of anti-Americanism at universities. Before actually watching it for a while, I'd just kinda heard that Fox News was conservative, without really understanding the tactics they used to that end, and I think it helped me ot be more critical of TV news in general.

 

If you've been at this long enough that you understand how that all works though, then yeah, you really should not subject yourself to any more than you have to, because you're just gonna make yourself mad without any good coming out of it.

 

 

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35 minutes ago, Captain Pickle said:

What happened on Wednesday?

 

I flew on the 25th so the 28th was probably too early to be getting tested for exposure on the 25th but I happened to be walking by a popup doing both rapid tests and PCR so I figured why not.

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37 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

I flew on the 25th so the 28th was probably too early to be getting tested for exposure on the 25th but I happened to be walking by a popup doing both rapid tests and PCR so I figured why not.

Your PCR test is taking this long? I got a rapid test yesterday and I got the results in like 40 minutes. 

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Just now, skillzdadirecta said:

Your PCR test is taking this long? I got a rapid test yesterday and I got the results in like 40 minutes. 

 

I've never experienced a wait time like this before, previously the longest I've seen is 48 hours. The popup on Tuesday was run by NovaDX, someone on reddit they had a five day wait for results too from the same one but they also had Christmas as part of their wait. The one from Thursday was Fulgent which usually sends me the results at like 3 AM the day after. 

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Just now, Jason said:

 

I've never experienced a wait time like this before, previously the longest I've seen is 48 hours. The popup on Tuesday was run by NovaDX, someone on reddit they had a five day wait for results too from the same one but they also had Christmas as part of their wait. The one from Thursday was Fulgent which usually sends me the results at like 3 AM the day after. 

No idea why it's taking so long but LA is SLAMMED right now with infections and it is also a holiday week this week too.

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1 minute ago, skillzdadirecta said:

No idea why it's taking so long but LA is SLAMMED right now with infections and it is also a holiday week this week too.

 

I guess, it's ridiculous that our testing infrastructure is still a fucking dumpster fire though. I guess I'm gonna go see if that popup is still there, who knows when I'll get the PCR results but they give you the rapid test result on the spot at least. 

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4 hours ago, ort said:

YEah, I don't know why I spend so much time looking at Fox News. It's a real problem for me.

 

I think it stems from my desire to try and understand where the other side is coming from. Their opinions and thoughts are so radically different from mine, and feel so completely and utterly wrong that I feel like I have some sort of obligation to at least understand where they are coming from.

 

I've seen good people go from, looking at the opposing side to get both angles of a story, to completely being indoctrinated into that side, becoming hate filled individuals in the process.  Some of them are quite smart, but they had an ember burning inside of them from a situation in their life, and the extremism right-wing media pushes ignited it.  It's difficult going from speaking to somebody on a regular basis, to having to be careful to what you say to them knowing the hostility that'll come out if you mention anything with the slightest amount of politics attached to it.

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41598_2021_4162_Fig1_HTML.png
WWW.NATURE.COM

Scientific Reports - <ArticleTitle Language="En" OutputMedium="All" xml:lang="en">Country-level factors dynamics and ABO/Rh blood...

I think this study shows that people with  a B+ blood type tend to fair better when dealing with Covid. This is what they've been saying for awhile now, but it sounds like they were able to determine that blood type stands out over many other indicators. 

 

At least, that's what I think this says.

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2 hours ago, Jason said:

Whelp the testing popup was closed today but I got a couple of at-home rapid tests and the one I did came back negative. I'd still really like to know what those PCR results say though, especially the one from Thursday.

 

The Thursday results came back negative. Still no idea where the Tuesday results are but Tuesday was probably too early to get tested anyhow, 3 days instead of 5 days. I wasn't super worried for myself since I wasn't feeling anything, that fourth shot is probably doing its thing and all, but I'm doing stuff like going into the office every day so I figured I should make sure I didn't catch it on my flight back. 

 

@skillzdadirecta Thursday was Fulgent, this is slower than their normal turnaround time in my experience but it's still about 48 hours so strictly speaking within the promised window. That popup tent is still pretty WTF though with how long it's taking. 

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11 hours ago, Jason said:

 

I guess, it's ridiculous that our testing infrastructure is still a fucking dumpster fire though. I guess I'm gonna go see if that popup is still there, who knows when I'll get the PCR results but they give you the rapid test result on the spot at least. 

Something to consider is not having the personnel to run the labs and not so much the infrastructure itself. Not saying that's the case where you are but my hospital is short staffed in areas outside of nursing - lab techs, physical/occupational therapists, respiratory therapists, etc. - even before any staff end up with COVID (started trending up right before Christmas, been actively avoiding my emails with someone else on call). We're also supporting with some of the community testing. With an increased volume of tests to run, there's only so many any one department can do, especially with limited resources. I wouldn't be surprised if they have contract labor requests out with regional agencies but no one is wanting to take them. As an anecdote: we have some requests for nursing travelers at a crazy competitive rate for the region. We're basically running an auto-acceptance if they have a minimum of 2 years icu experience and experience with our electronic medical record system. Our positions will stay open for weeks at a time. And that's not even taking into consideration the lack of applicants for our career positions.

 

Just a general take, I suppose. Started off with a small comment then veered way off. Healthcare f'ing blows at the moment.

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1 hour ago, Littleronin said:

I'm waiting for Omicron to get a mutation that will re-up COVID's death game. Seems like the perfect variant at this point to put us in a proper fucked state. 

The more people that survive omicron makes it more likely you'll survive the next variant, theres a pretty good reason why you don't see the Flu just up and kill a million people one year because we all have familiarity to it and all the variants.

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2 hours ago, PaladinSolo said:

The more people that survive omicron makes it more likely you'll survive the next variant, theres a pretty good reason why you don't see the Flu just up and kill a million people one year because we all have familiarity to it and all the variants.

Honestly It's more to do with the fact that we have upped our game with the flu vaccine, and that we don't live with our food animals as much anymore.  It's not like a human flu can't mix with a high mortality bird flu in a pig and give us 1918 levels of death.  Viruses don't have those types of evolutionary pressures such as people surviving or living through it.  It's just that we have taken more proactive steps to ensure that it is unlikely to happen again, and if it does we will have the anti-viral meds and vaccines to combat it.

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1 minute ago, Chadatog said:

Honestly It's more to do with the fact that we have upped our game with the flu vaccine, and that we don't live with our food animals as much anymore.


What about most of the world for which neither of these things are true, but we also don’t see the same level of flu caused deaths as we previously did?

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1 hour ago, sblfilms said:


What about most of the world for which neither of these things are true, but we also don’t see the same level of flu caused deaths as we previously did?

Who is we in this statement.  If you mean countries with healthcare and money, it would be for the reasons I stated, and most of the poorer countries that neither is true they have not seen nearly the reduction in flu deaths that countries like US and UK have seen in the past 100 years that can be explained with people getting various strains of the flu.

 

This is the paper that I found that hopefully backs up this point better than I can articulate.

 

From the conclusion:

Quote

Our study highlights systematic regional variation in influenza mortality burden, in part driven by health care and socio-economic development, which should be further investigated as more data become available.

 

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40 minutes ago, Chadatog said:

Who is we in this statement.  If you mean countries with healthcare and money, it would be fore the reasons I stated, and most of the poorer countries that neither is true they have not seen nearly the reduction in flu deaths that countries like US and UK have seen in the past 100 years that can be explained with people getting various strains of the flu.

 

This is the paper that I found that hopefully backs up this point better than I can articulate.

 

From the conclusion:

 

 

The we who are looking at the data.


I would suggest reading Table 2 in the article you linked.

 

Compare the rates of mortality per 100k people from the Flu. Look at Europe (5.3 per 100k) to South East Asia (5.8). Vaccination and not living with food animals certainly doesn’t apply to SE Asia
 

But more importantly is that the rates of flu death have decreased in all regions of the world over the last 100 years even though most of the world doesn’t have the level of vaccination that wealthy nations do.

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13 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

 

The we who are looking at the data.


I would suggest reading Table 2 in the article you linked.

 

Compare the rates of mortality per 100k people from the Flu. Look at Europe (5.3 per 100k) to South East Asia (5.8). Vaccination and not living with food animals certainly doesn’t apply to SE Asia
 

But more importantly is that the rates of flu death have decreased in all regions of the world over the last 100 years even though most of the world doesn’t have the level of vaccination that wealthy nations do.

Table 2 is an average of 2002 - 2011 so it's a snapshot of about 10 years.  Per 100,000 for each region 6.2 (Americas) is not that far off from 5.8 (SE Asia).  Also Americas includes South America, a particularly poor region of the world factoring into (we) numbers.  Finally the entire paper is about those poorer regions not being able to accurately count deaths due to flu and is seen in the amount influenza related excess deaths. 

jogh-09-020421-F2.jpg

I never said that rates of flu death hasn't decreased everywhere, just that it's decreased more in places where there is better access to vaccines/care and public health measures and it's less a factor of people just getting antibodies to various strains, as those things are not consistent or necessarily long lasting.

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11 minutes ago, Chadatog said:

Table 2 is an average of 2002 - 2011 so it's a snapshot of about 10 years.  Per 100,000 for each region 6.2 (Americas) is not that far off from 5.8 (SE Asia).  Also Americas includes South America, a particularly poor region of the world factoring into (we) numbers.  Finally the entire paper is about those poorer regions not being able to accurately count deaths due to flu and is seen in the amount influenza related excess deaths. 

jogh-09-020421-F2.jpg

I never said that rates of flu death hasn't decreased everywhere, just that it's decreased more in places where there is better access to vaccines/care and public health measures and it's less a factor of people just getting antibodies to various strains, as those things are not consistent or necessarily long lasting.


Even with less accurate numbers the estimates aren’t likely far off of reality. Look at Flu deaths in the US back in the 40s and 50s, they were around 30-40/100k. Compare SE Asia in the range in table 2 to the US 70 years ago and the rates are substantially lower.

 

Your vaccination and not living with food animals hypothesis does not explain the decrease in regions where that isn’t true. The Flu is less deadly today everywhere than it was 100 years ago, or even 50 years ago.

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50 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

Not up there in absolute numbers yet compared to the biggest wave, but the slope is very concerning for ICU cases in Ontario:

 

FILew2gXMAA6DJM?format=png&name=large

The problem ATM, is not so much the # of people in ICU beds, but rather the number of health care workers in quarantine, and unable to work.

 

That graph also demonstrates how effective the vaccines have been at preventing serious illness.

 

ICU beds peaked on May 2nd at 895 two weeks after cases peaked Apr 19. at 4,447.

ICU beds are at 244, two weeks ago the cases were at 3,700 on Dec 20 -- and cases are currently much higher than that.  (I would quote a number, but because of PCR testing essentially being rationed for Health Care workers/at-risk people, they are meaningless).

The reality is, nothing can slow down the spread of Omicron -- short of a complete Chinese-style lock-down.  I wish we had data on the ages of the people in ICU/vented.  There might be a case for a Chinese-style lockdown for people of a certain age -- and not implementing a full-scale lockdown so the rest of us catch it sooner, rather than later. [To shorten the length of the wave.]

 

Looking at the UK, there cases still haven't peaked (despite people claiming they had last year).

 

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virus-outbreak.jpg
WWW.CBC.CA

Pandemics do eventually end, even if Omicron is complicating the question of when this one will. But it won't be like flipping a light switch: the world will have to learn to coexist with a virus that's not going away, experts say.

 

 

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1 minute ago, skillzdadirecta said:

@Jason you mentioned you got a couple of at home tests... where did you find them? I haven't seen ANY in Culver City or anywhere near here since they came out. Would love to have one or two on hand.

 

Bought at the CVS at 3202 Wilshire and saw other people buying them at 1411 Lincoln (both in Santa Monica) but who knows if they still have. 

 

The CVS website said they had the Abbott ones at 3202 but then a different brand when I showed up. So I guess the CVS site is semi accurate in terms of at least getting something. 

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