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~*Official #COVID-19 Thread of Doom*~ Revenge of Omicron Prime


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5 hours ago, Chris- said:

 

If we misunderstand data then you misunderstand English, because what you quoted does not prove that the variant is 'nearly unaffected by vaccination when it comes to preventing infection' (your exact words). In fact, the data is pretty conclusive: it's very affected by it!

 

I'll happily retract that sentence as it really isn't important to the broader point that Omicron blunts vaccines as a method of epidemic control with regard to infection. From the paper

 

SAR.png

 

In households where the primary infection was an unvaccinated person, 29% of the potential secondary cases were positive. In a household where the primary infection was a booster-vaccinated person, 25% of the potential secondary cases were positive. 70% of all households with a booster-vaccinated primary infection ended up with a secondary infection. I suppose this is a difference to hang your hat on. The study authors don't. And this is with fresh boosters (under 30 days since injection). There is already preliminary data suggesting 30-45 days is the peak before whatever benefit (which the vast majority receive no benefit against infection!) starts dropping off substantially, hence the reason that Israel was about to ramp up second boosters.

 

In the Omicron era, getting boosted is about maximizing memory cell immunity. Assuming the data collected and shown in the article is fairly accurate and universal across populations (which none of this is, for reasons @CitizenVectronrecently mentioned), it is indeed true that a supermajority of individuals will not be protected from infection even if boosted and because of this vaccination is no longer a good tool to effectively disrupt the spread of the virus. But stopping cases shouldn't be the goal, stopping people from getting very sick should. And the vaccines we have continue to be exceptional at that.

 

6 hours ago, SuperSpreader said:

 

Like father like son in law. 

 

 

Are you unfamiliar with the concept of a beach? It's like a park, but with sand that ruins your car forever.

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34 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

 

I just had a Diplomacy tournament in Vancouver rescheduled from next month to July because the very responsible hosts are worried we won't be allowed to have like a 30 person gathering a month from now, lol at this chucklefuck thinking he can get in declaring himself unvaccinated. 

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And not even Vancouver. Fucking Surrey. Was there a few years ago for this tournament before it got moved to the much more civilized New Westminster but the bar we were using burned down earlier this year so a hobby member who owns a hotel in Surrey was setting us up. But man Surrey. Might as well be fucking suburban buttfuck Ohio. 

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My mom told me she was supposed to go to a gathering at the Cheesecake factory, but then had to cancel today because she said the friend that she was going with was notified she was exposed to COVID, but then says she can't get a test till next wednesday (which sounds odd).

 

But my mom said she walked with this lady yesterday (outside) but hopefully she'll be ok

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24 minutes ago, Keyser_Soze said:

My mom told me she was supposed to go to a gathering at the Cheesecake factory, but then had to cancel today because she said the friend that she was going with was notified she was exposed to COVID, but then says she can't get a test till next wednesday (which sounds odd).

 

But my mom said she walked with this lady yesterday (outside) but hopefully she'll be ok

 

I've been poking around and while there is one site that does walkup testing that is within drivable distance of me, but it does make mention of potentially long wait times. Otherwise, all the places that do things by appointment are booked until some limited slots on Monday, but otherwise mostly Tuesday/Wednesday.

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5 hours ago, sblfilms said:

 

I'll happily retract that sentence as it really isn't important to the broader point that Omicron blunts vaccines as a method of epidemic control with regard to infection. From the paper

 

SAR.png

 

In households where the primary infection was an unvaccinated person, 29% of the potential secondary cases were positive. In a household where the primary infection was a booster-vaccinated person, 25% of the potential secondary cases were positive. 70% of all households with a booster-vaccinated primary infection ended up with a secondary infection. I suppose this is a difference to hang your hat on. The study authors don't. And this is with fresh boosters (under 30 days since injection). There is already preliminary data suggesting 30-45 days is the peak before whatever benefit (which the vast majority receive no benefit against infection!) starts dropping off substantially, hence the reason that Israel was about to ramp up second boosters.

 

In the Omicron era, getting boosted is about maximizing memory cell immunity. Assuming the data collected and shown in the article is fairly accurate and universal across populations (which none of this is, for reasons @CitizenVectronrecently mentioned), it is indeed true that a supermajority of individuals will not be protected from infection even if boosted and because of this vaccination is no longer a good tool to effectively disrupt the spread of the virus. But stopping cases shouldn't be the goal, stopping people from getting very sick should. And the vaccines we have continue to be exceptional at that.

 

 

Are you unfamiliar with the concept of a beach? It's like a park, but with sand that ruins your car forever.


 

“We also show that booster-vaccinated individuals generally had a reduced transmissibility (OR: 0.72, CI: 0.56-0.92), and that unvaccinated individuals had a higher transmissibility (OR: 1.41, CI: 1.27-1.57), compared to fully vaccinated individuals.”

 

Why was this one of their conclusions then?

 

Also, where in the study did you see that all booster participants were 30 days or less from receiving their booster?

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35 minutes ago, Joe said:


 

“We also show that booster-vaccinated individuals generally had a reduced transmissibility (OR: 0.72, CI: 0.56-0.92), and that unvaccinated individuals had a higher transmissibility (OR: 1.41, CI: 1.27-1.57), compared to fully vaccinated individuals.”

 

Why was this one of their conclusions then?

 

Also, where in the study did you see that all booster participants were 30 days or less from receiving their booster?


Those are comparative stats. The key is what the baseline number is that they are being compared against. That is why the nominal numbers are much more helpful in understanding both risk and the implication on the transmission of the virus based on factors like vaccinated vs fully vaccinated/PI vs booster-vaccinated.

 

That is why they say that vaccines as epidemic control is now being challenged by Omicron, and variant specific vaccine improvements will be necessary to return the level of infection control we had prior to Omicron.


I followed the footnotes. It was in a table from the dataset used, which only had people who had been boosted 1-29 days prior to testing positive. And for clarity, it is 1-29 days after you’re considered boosted, not the actual injection date. I can’t recall on Pfizer if that is 7 or 14 days, and there were no Moderna or AZ boosted people in the dataset while there were some of both in the fully vaccinated group. I’m guessing they are only doing Pfizer for boosters there, but that is indeed merely a guess.

 

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3 hours ago, sblfilms said:


Those are comparative stats. The key is what the baseline number is that they are being compared against. That is why the nominal numbers are much more helpful in understanding both risk and the implication on the transmission of the virus based on factors like vaccinated vs fully vaccinated/PI vs booster-vaccinated.

 

That is why they say that vaccines as epidemic control is now being challenged by Omicron, and variant specific vaccine improvements will be necessary to return the level of infection control we had prior to Omicron.


I followed the footnotes. It was in a table from the dataset used, which only had people who had been boosted 1-29 days prior to testing positive. And for clarity, it is 1-29 days after you’re considered boosted, not the actual injection date. I can’t recall on Pfizer if that is 7 or 14 days, and there were no Moderna or AZ boosted people in the dataset while there were some of both in the fully vaccinated group. I’m guessing they are only doing Pfizer for boosters there, but that is indeed merely a guess.

 


The dramatic difference in their calculated Odds Ratio for boosted vs unvaccinated transmission tells me that the SAR does not tell the whole picture. 
 

Only thing we can do now is wait for more transmissibility data in the coming days. I’m confident it will show further evidence that the booster helps significantly reduce Omicron transmission.

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1 hour ago, Joe said:


The dramatic difference in their calculated Odds Ratio for boosted vs unvaccinated transmission tells me that the SAR does not tell the whole picture. 
 

Only thing we can do now is wait for more transmissibility data in the coming days. I’m confident it will show further evidence that the booster helps significantly reduce Omicron transmission.

 

OR is a comparative analysis of the data. But even looking at the ORs, check table 8 column I so you can see the comparative rates of all the secondary infections based on the primary case in the household being Delta or Omicron, and then broken down by unvaccinated, fully vaccinated, and booster-vaccinated. Boosted people in Omicron households who became a secondary case had a worse OR than fully vaccinated people did in Delta households. This is antibody evasion.

 

I guess "significantly" is subjective. Some people could look at this dataset and arrive at the conclusion that the reduction is significant. I don't think it is when you apply the findings to the population of the world. If you could snap your fingers and immediately have everybody booster-vaccinated at peak levels and stay that way for months, the expectation would remain that a majority of those people would become infected with Omicron given our current seeding of the variant.

 

The most consistent thing in the data on Omicron, both in labs and in the real world, is the antibody evasion. 

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13 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

 

OR is a comparative analysis of the data. But even looking at the ORs, check table 8 column I so you can see the comparative rates of all the secondary infections based on the primary case in the household being Delta or Omicron, and then broken down by unvaccinated, fully vaccinated, and booster-vaccinated. Boosted people in Omicron households who became a secondary case had a worse OR than fully vaccinated people did in Delta households. This is antibody evasion.

 

I guess "significantly" is subjective. Some people could look at this dataset and arrive at the conclusion that the reduction is significant. I don't think it is when you apply the findings to the population of the world. If you could snap your fingers and immediately have everybody booster-vaccinated at peak levels and stay that way for months, the expectation would remain that a majority of those people would become infected with Omicron given our current seeding of the variant.

 

The most consistent thing in the data on Omicron, both in labs and in the real world, is the antibody evasion. 


Oh I’m not debating the antibody evasión at all. That’s undeniable. But it’s not enough to say that vaccinations won’t help reduce transmission. At least not yet.

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12 hours ago, SuperSpreader said:

The fucking cunt next to my wife on our flight today was hacking the whole flight, I was like yo do you own a movie theater or something bitch why are you outside???


 

My friend, an aspiring Democratic politician in Harris County who is currently working for the County Attorney has declared COVID to be “over” and was telling me yesterday that he thought his sister-in-law was ridiculous because she was driving a few hours instead of flying as a result of her positive test. “Everybody is going to get it anyway, why did she even take a test? She’s boosted!”

 

Believe me, it ain’t just conservatives anymore.

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10 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

Vaccines reduce transmission by the sheer fact that you’re still less likely to catch the virus in the first place, even at a reduced level which appears to be the case with omi

 

Yes, this is the entirety of the discussion here :p The data in the article published shows that antibody evasion is very high with Omicron so much so that the authors believe that antibody evasion is the driver of the increased transmission we have seen during the omicron era, not inherent transmissibility. My point here is that if you just do the math on the spread of the virus given the, ahem, significantly blunted ability of the antibodies in both vaccinated, prior infected, and booster-vaccinated individuals, you are no longer able to control spread with the tools we have in their current formulation. That is why the particular article in question argues for new variant specific boosters to help regain the previous protection against infection.

 

27 minutes ago, Joe said:


Oh I’m not debating the antibody evasión at all. That’s undeniable. But it’s not enough to say that vaccinations won’t help reduce transmission. At least not yet.

 

I will readily accept that it does reduce transmission, it just doesn't do appear to do it at a level that can lead to epidemic control, which the vaccines were able to accomplish against the previous variants. I think we have good reason to believe there will be boosters in 2022 that can reestablish what we had prior to the emergence of Omicron.

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Lol my province (after effectively shutting down testing and reporting over Christmas) just announced we will remain the only province without any gathering restrictions of any kind. Also, reducing isolation after positive test from 10 days to 5 days. Also, no longer need to get PCR test if rapid test is positive (which will make case count look lower).

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14 hours ago, Jason said:

I just had a Diplomacy tournament in Vancouver rescheduled from next month to July because the very responsible hosts are worried we won't be allowed to have like a 30 person gathering a month from now, lol at this chucklefuck thinking he can get in declaring himself unvaccinated. 

 

Also apparently big sporting events are still allowed though? Thanks Canadumb. :(

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Just got this e-mail from my kids district, how about some of that blue state socialism!

 

Yesterday, December 29, 2021, Governor Hochul announced a statewide goal of having as many students as possible tested for COVID-19 as school resumes. To accomplish this, New York State is providing enough at-home testing kits to test every student. To help ease this process for our families, we are reaching out early as we make plans to distribute these kits. To explain the logistics, we know that the test kits will be shipped to our BOCES, where they will be sorted according to district enrollment and then distributed to each school district. We will then distribute them to you. As you can imagine, the exact date will depend on when the shipments of test kits are received from the State. At this time, we expect them to arrive the week of January 3. To be clear, families are not required or mandated to test their children; they are simply being encouraged to do by New York State, and to facilitate that, the State is providing these at-home test kits.

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They are fucking treating people. What the fuck is this ignorant piece of shit fuck face even talking about?

 

Aaron Rogers is a fucking idiot. Fuck that guy.

 

Go watch a YouTube video the next time you break your leg you stupid dumb motherfucker. Until then, shut the fuck up, because the lies and ignorant shit you're spreading is hurting people.

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