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Houston Astros' Jeff Luhnow, AJ Hinch suspended 1 year; Alex Cora (Red Sox) and Carlos Beltran (Mets) Out

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9 minutes ago, rc0101 said:

Whether they did it in real time or not on the road Altuve still benefited from cheating even if he directly didn’t participate in it. 

What stats do you see to back up the claim? Looking at the various players, there is no distinct increase in production by any of the players. Most have other seasons with nearly universally better stats.


Even outside of my own research, every article that attempts to take a holistic view of the effects of the scheme have the end conclusion of “we just don’t know”, because it’s not like recording an incorrect score card in golf where we can literally count the actual strokes and see you shaved a stroke.

 

That is actually a reason to be even more forceful about punishing this kind of cheating because it’s effects are nebulous and cast a long shadow of doubt across every game in which it was done.

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If you don’t believe someone benefited from cheating at home and maybe away then I don’t know what to say. I guess they just like hitting trashcans and whistling? There was a reason they did it. 
 

here’s one. Team strikeout rate in 2016 - 24.5%
2017 - 16.7%. 
 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-much-did-the-astros-really-benefit-from-sign-stealing/

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4 minutes ago, rc0101 said:

If you don’t believe someone benefited from cheating at home and maybe away then I don’t know what to say. I guess they just like hitting trashcans and whistling? There was a reason they did it. 
 

here’s one. Team strikeout rate in 2016 - 24.5%
2017 - 16.7%. 

 

You say they benefitted from it, so the onus is on you to provide substantiation of the claim. And lots of people do things that they think will help their success rate, dumb things like wearing the same socks every day. Their belief in it working doesn’t make it work. So again, let’s look at stats and see what story they tell because if the cheating certainly helps we should see clear evidence of this.


Josh Reddick today said he didn’t participate in the trash can scheme specifically because it wasn’t something that he believed would be effective, potentially even detrimental.

 

I’m glad you went right for the strikeout rate! The Astros got rid of their 5 top strike out guys and specifically crafted a team to strike

out less, including how they went about off season and spring training changes. You can read articles prior to the season predicting this decline.

 

The decline also persists in 2018 AND 2019 precisely because they made a point of moving away from high strike out players and worked to improve the k rate of their other starters.

 

The best data analysis so far shows small gains in OPS when the scheme called things correctly, but huge losses in OPS when it got things wrong, and largely a wash over the course of the season because of that.

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The effect of the cheating is not what is important, it's the fact that you cheated to begin with. If you take steroids and somehow end up with worse performance, no one cuts you a break because your performance wasn't actually enhanced. Whether or not there was any benefit, there was a massive, organized operation done by the Astros and their players to gain an advantage. Whether or not that advantage materialized isn't important, they need to be punished for the effort they put in to try and gain that advantage, just like you get automatically suspended for PEDs, no one looks at your stats and tries to proportionalize your punishment, it's 80 games no matter what. Players should be punished to the degree of their proven involvement, regardless of the outcome on their stats/games. 

 

 

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Just now, Dodger said:

The effect of the cheating is not what is important, it's the fact that you cheated to begin with. 


Exactly!

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10 minutes ago, ManUtdRedDevils said:

I’m waiting for Carlos Beltran

 

 

 

He might have fucked himself out of the hall of fame, definitely ended his manager career before it started, so even though he won't be suspended for any games as a player, he might actually suffer some pretty harsh consequences for his actions. 

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https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-most-important-bangs-of-the-astros-scheme/
 

Here is a good article for @rc0101 to look over and see the net effects of the banging scheme. The more data that is collected the worse the benefit looks. This also tracks well with the MLB report saying the Astros players said they ditched all the illicit sign stealing in the middle of the 2018 season because it was found to be ineffective. The Red Sox ditched their sign stealing scheme in the 2018 playoffs and still crushed Houston and LA because there really is little indication sign stealing is a particularly productive strategy. 

 

Which brings us back to what @Dodgerjust said about the efficacy not being the issue.

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So I brought all the answed to a test I took without anyone noticing. It turns out the test was super easy and I didn't even need to use the answers! Guess what? That is still cheating.

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