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The final Democratic debate before the Iowa caucus is Tuesday night, 1/14


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I would submit to Scott:

 

Let's remember 2004. The Democratic Leadership Council (back when that's what DLC meant) talked about how the left in the Democratic Party was viewed as anti-American. They weren't, but we can't have Americans thinking that the Democrats weren't on America's side, and we couldn't elect some left-wing anti-Iraq War candidate. So John Kerry was one of their candidates of choice -- a Vietnam veteran, a Purple Heart winner, a Third Way moderate.

 

The Republicans made him out to be an elitist flip-flopping sissy who was weak and wobbly, and it stuck. In addition to that, they tried to attack Bush on the war by fielding a candidate who voted to give him the authorization to go to war in Iraq. 

 

In 2008, many Democrats were telling me that Hillary was the most electable and experienced. Obama handily beat McCain and Romney, ran great campaigns with few mistakes, and had long coattails down ballot in 08. He also was able to utilize the War in Iraq by campaigning that it wasted considerable money at a time where money needed to be spent on jobs during the economic crisis. Hillary ran in 2016 against the guy who supposedly couldn't win, and Hillary lost. And one of the things she had a long history of was supporting unpopular trade deals in the upper midwest, which Trump campaigned against.

 

As Democrats, we should get away from the idea that someone is more or less electable because we don't know until ballots are cast, and we have a fruitful history of thinking the "centrist" would win when there are obvious issues that make them antithetical to the moment.

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Do you live in or have close experience with anyone from the midwestern and rust belt battleground states that won trump the election?

 

When I talk to people in these states, they guffaw at the mere mention of people like Bernie or AOC. It’s a gut level recoiling response. And it’s very different than their response to candidates like Mike Bloomberg or Pete buttigieg. The propaganda arm of the Republican Party will unfairly malign whomever is the eventual nominee, but they’ll have a harder time convincing the voting public that someone like Bloomberg is a hippy commie who wants to wreck their small business with ever-increasing taxes. 
 

I really, really hope you’re right - that we nominate a progressive candidate, and that this is the moment for America to receive and elect such a candidate. But I’m not betting on it. 

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16 minutes ago, Scott said:

Do you live in or have close experience with anyone from the midwestern and rust belt battleground states that won trump the election?

 

When I talk to people in these states, they guffaw at the mere mention of people like Bernie or AOC. It’s a gut level recoiling response. And it’s very different than their response to candidates like Mike Bloomberg or Pete buttigieg. The propaganda arm of the Republican Party will unfairly malign whomever is the eventual nominee, but they’ll have a harder time convincing the voting public that someone like Bloomberg is a hippy commie who wants to wreck their small business with ever-increasing taxes. 
 

I really, really hope you’re right - that we nominate a progressive candidate, and that this is the moment for America to receive and elect such a candidate. But I’m not betting on it. 

 

I actually do in a not-living there way. We get a LOT of midwesterners down here in Florida, and side note on that: the Hillary campaign noticed trends in the midwestern areas of Florida on Election Night and worried that it may be an omen to what would happen when the votes were counted in the upper-midwest.

 

Let's remember the 2016 primaries -- Iowa was a dead-heat. Ohio did go to Hillary, but Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan went to Bernie. And Bernie way-overperformed the polls in Michigan and stunned everyone. Rarely was he favored to win but then lost to Hillary. IIRC, it was always Bernie over-performing. 

 

He's the kind of guy who gets people like my doesn't-give-a-shit-about-elections brother out to vote. He says he would have actually voted had Bernie been the nominee.

 

Putting aside everyone's gut opinions to not voting -- I've had this discussion with him a lot, trust me -- he's the kind of guy that pollsters aren't polling. And Bernie's positions on things like marijuana legalization are far more inspiring to young people who don't normally vote, as opposed to Biden's surprisingly conservative view on it. In fact, I think Biden's view would hurt him more in the general than Bernie despite their levels of support from black Americans in the primary.

 

I could be wrong. I know I was wrong when I thought Hillary would run this immaculate campaign in 2016. :/

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27 minutes ago, Jose said:

 

That he said she couldn't be president.

Maybe the link was supposed to be to something else, but that audio is just of the exchange after the debate...

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Bernie said something like it, but Warren still seems desperate to go after it right now. Bernie is like Trump in the way that his supporters adore and worship him and would support his version of any story no matter what. Warren got a small bump from the debate, but my guess is Bernie will maintain what he has gained in recent polls. Despite that, Biden is still the nominee. I said it all long ago and here he is as the front runner still.

 

It's all somewhat unfortunate as Warren would be a better president and get more done than Bernie, but Warren just doesn't have a wide enough base of support it seems. 

 

Butti would also be a great president . I think people here are too hard on him for navigating to the center lane when the left lane was full with Bernie and Warren. He made a calculation to carve out a position to the slight left of Biden, but not as far as Warren. His positions are generally well thought out, and he seems to have a grasp on the complexities of foreign policy. But he just doesn't have the support he needs across all the demographics.

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20 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

Maybe the link was supposed to be to something else, but that audio is just of the exchange after the debate...

 

I understand that, but after hearing that exchange, it becomes even harder to believe than it was before that she made up the claim. His response would have been way different as well.

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4 minutes ago, Massdriver said:

Bernie said something like it, but Warren still seems desperate to go after it right now. Bernie is like Trump in the way that his supporter adore and worship him and would support his version of any story no matter what. Warren got a small bump from the debate, but my guess is Bernie will maintain what he has gained in recent polls. Despite that, Biden is still the nominee. I said it all long ago and here he is as the front runner still.

I think a lot of the left sees, rightly, that this is a once in a lifetime chance to get a bona fide leftist/socialist in the White House because there is no bench. He's seems to be a decent man and has been "right" on everything for the past 30+ years, but many of us would love to have someone younger, or of color, or female. But he's all that's left, tbh

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3 minutes ago, Scott said:

This he said she said high school gossip bullshit is definitely what America needs right now and is the obvious path to victory for Dems.

 

Nah man, it's Amy Klobuchar, who sounds like she is going to burst out in tears every time she opens her mouth.

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1 hour ago, Jose said:

 

I understand that, but after hearing that exchange, it becomes even harder to believe than it was before that she made up the claim. His response would have been way different as well.

Yeah, I don’t get that at all from that exchange. Why does his response to her coming at him make you think that? 

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14 minutes ago, johnny said:

Yeah, I don’t get that at all from that exchange. Why does his response to her coming at him make you think that? 

 

"I believe you called me a liar on national tv"

 

His immediate response should have been to tell her that she was indeed lying. Instead he fumbled over his words.

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